MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Saturday, May 21

MLB Betting Playbook for Saturday

Saturday is a huge day in MLB, with a massive 16-game schedule for us to sort out here and give some great information on. As always with our betting playbook, we'll have all the latest trends and best bets that you'll want to know before placing a wager on one of these games.

One trend you should definitely know is that the BetQL model is 459-361 (56%) on all MLB picks in the past 14 days for a total return of $935 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!

MLB BEST BETS

I love the Mets in this one for a plethora of reasons, especially their first five innings and the over in the game. For one, New York has been phenomenal to start the season off. They're 26-14 and traveling to Coors Field to take on a sinking Rockies team that is starting to show cracks after a good start to the season. Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Fransisco Lindor are all going to be playing in Coors Field, so you can expect a lot of offense to begin with by just connecting the dots.

Alonso has slugged .537 in his career and has 10 home runs in 2022 already, and he's well-regarded as one of the best power bats in the league. At Coors, he's almost an auto-play to hit a homer. Nimmo has been great this season as well, slashing .287/.391/.457. Since 2020, he has an .823 OPS against lefties like the one he will face tonight, who we will get to in just a minute. Lindor hasn't been the same player he was when he was on the Indians, but he's still a huge threat playing at Coors where the offense and power comes easy. Another name to look for in this Mets lineup is Mark Canha. He had 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 2021, and is hitting to the tune of a .294 average and a .376 OBP in 2022.

Facing the Mets is Rockies pitcher German Marquez, and he's why I love this first five bet. Marquez has a 6.16 ERA and has allowed 1.66 home runs per nine innings in 2022. Oh, and he's also allowed lefties to hit .271 against him since 2020. He's awful, and New York should have no trouble finding offense early and often here.

Check out what the model projects in the widget above.

Lucy Burdge is going to love this one. I like the Red Sox first five innings against the Mariners today, and while Boston has not lived up to expectations this season, they should still have enough in the tank to get past Seattle. For starters, Garrett Whitlock is on the mound for them, and he has arguably been their best pitcher even though he is technically a reliever. He has a 2.43 ERA in 29 innings pitched, with a fantastic 0.94 WHIP in the five games he has started. Seattle's offense doesn't scare me at all, with many guys underperforming and just having a bad start to the season.

On the other side, Boston should be able to put up a reasonable amount of runs, even if their offense isn't too great either. They are facing Chris Flexen, who if you did not know, is a guy that I absolutely love to bet against on a weekly basis whenever he gets the start. He was a rookie last season, and he was mediocre at best, with a 3.88 FIP in 2021. This year is going even worse for the righty, as he has a 4.62 FIP through seven starts in 2022. Flexen has allowed 39 hits in 39 innings of work, and he doesn't have strikeout stuff, with just 29 K's.

The Red Sox should be able to pounce on him early and take a lead. Will they close it out for the full-game? I'm not sure, but you should check what our model says.

I mean, I hardly have to say much of anything about this matchup, do I? Justin Verlander continues to be an absolute beast on the mound for the Astros, with a 5-1 record and sporting an insane 1.38 ERA through 45.2 innings of work. His WHIP is otherworldly, sitting at just 0.68, which is number one in the majors by a decent margin. The guy is about to turn 40-years-old, and he's still the best pitcher in baseball. Tom Brady would be so proud.

Not only is he getting the ball for the Astros, but their offense continues to be a force in MLB, despite losing Carlos Correa and George Springer in previous free-agency periods. Yordan Alvarez has been a powerhouse of a man, with 12 homers on the season already to go along with a .927 OPS. Michael Brantley also continues to hit the ball well for average as he always does, sitting at .285 on the season and leading his team in the category. Kyle Tucker has also been great driving in runs, with 26 RBI on the season.

They get to take on Jon Gray, who has been horrendous in 2022. Even after leaving the confines of Coors Field, Gray still can't produce any semblance of a solid performance. Through five starts with the Rangers he has a 5.73 ERA, and he doesn't miss bats at all, with just 23 K's in those starts. He's also reportedly dealing with a knee issue of some sort that he has been working through. He's going to have a very tough time against Houston.