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Braves -4.5 Runs & Braves Team Total Over 9.5 Runs (+600, BetMGM)
In other words, I think the Braves are going to absolutely crush the Athletics today. Here’s why:
The Braves (32-21) have outscored their opponents by 62 runs so far this season, the best run differential in the National League and the third-best in the Majors. Meanwhile, the Athletics (10-45) somehow already have a -199 run differential, the worst mark in MLB by 123 runs. You read that correctly: 123. Oakland is 20-35 versus the run line overall, including 10-18 at home and even though the Braves have gone 22-31 against the run line, Atlanta has gone 15-9 versus the run line on the road. Just how awful is this A’s team? Their 45th loss confirmed that they will have the most losses before June in MLB history. Coming off a 10-1 loss yesterday, the Athletics have been swept in eight different series so far this year and are on pace to go a hilarious 29-133, which would crush the current record of 120 losses.
Per Ralph Michaels, the Athletics have gone 0-21 SU this season as an underdog of +195 or above. The average score in those games has been 8.1 to 2.4. The rest of the MLB this season has gone 13-33 (28.3%) in that scenario with an average score of 5.1 to 3.0. That’s how awful this Oakland team is.
Oakland’s bullpen has a 6.50 ERA (1.33 runs higher than the next-worst team) and has allowed 37 home runs (eight more than any other club). Right-hander Paul Blackburn will make his MLB debut for the A’s today and his career 5.09 ERA tells the story of what we should expect to see. Not only that, but in six minor league starts this season, this is his pitching line: 18.0 IP, 33 H, 15 ER, 10 K, 6 BB. Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and company should feast and put up crooked numbers and just put up 11 runs against the Phillies yesterday, so they should be coming into this one with confidence.
The big news for this game, though, is the return of Mike Soroka for Atlanta. The former Braves ace hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2020 due to injuries, but has a 2.86 career ERA through 37 Big League starts. He’s been putting in work at the Triple-A level this season and facing off against this Oakland offense might be an easier feat. All joking aside, he shouldn’t have to do too much to give his team a chance to win in this one, so if he gives them five quality innings, we should be in good shape.