Baseball fans, the month of July has arrived! In terms of the All-Star break, this is the stretch run with the Midsummer Classic less than three weeks away. Before we get there, MLB has a great schedule lined up this weekend, starting with 15 games on Friday. There are even a couple of day games on the schedule, so let’s not waste any time before sharing the important trends and insights you need to know for Friday’s games.
One trend to note is that the BetQL MLB model is red-hot right now, going 29-16 (65%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐ and higher in the past three days for a total return of $805 on $100 bets. BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
Twins -225 vs. Orioles ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Whenever a first-place team plays a last-place team, it’s usually a safe bet that the first-place team is going to win. That’s the situation on Friday when the Twins host the Orioles. Oddsmakers are heavily favoring the Twins with a moneyline of -235, but the BetQL model has the Twins at -384 with a nearly 80% chance of winning, which is why this is a five-star pick.
To be fair, the Orioles have the best record in the majors against the spread because they have lost a lot of one-run games. On the other hand, the Twins have the third-best SU record in the majors when they’re favored at home. They’ve also had a lot of success this season with youngster Joe Ryan on the mound. He’ll make his 12th start of the season on Friday and has been the winning pitcher in six of the first 11, which is a good indicator of success against a lackluster team like the Orioles that’s barely averaging four runs per game on the season.
Friday’s schedule begins with some day baseball at Wrigley Field. The good news for the Cubs is they’ve won four of their last six home games despite being 15-26 at Wrigley this year. However, the Red Sox are 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS as a road favorite this year.
July 1 is Canada Day, which explains why the Blue Jays are hosting a day game on a Friday. The Blue Jays ended June on a roll offensively, averaging 6.4 runs per game over their last 11 games. But while they took Thursday’s series opener against Tampa, the Blue Jays have lost 15 of their last 17 games when facing the Rays after a win.
The Marlins had a tough time against the spread toward the end of June, going 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games. However, the Nats are the second-worst home team in the majors at 14-27 (.342). They have also lost their last 10 night games against their division rivals.
The Cardinals are 17-4 SU this season when they’ve had a moneyline between -100 and -150. But despite Miles Mikolas rocking a 2.57 ERA, they haven’t taken advantage of him, going just 4-4 in his last eight starts.
Under Brian Snitker, the Braves are 99-51 (.660) SU when they are on the road with a moneyline of -110 or higher and 79-39 (.725) SU when they are on the road with a moneyline of -125 or higher, so they take care of business as heavy favorites. Just for good measure, Atlanta has won the last seven games Max Fried has started.
The Pirates pulled off a surprise win in Thursday’s series opener, helping Pittsburgh go 9-3 ATS over the team’s last 12 games in June. On the other hand, the Brewers have won their last seven games against the Pirates when they’re coming off a loss.
Outside of Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees are in a team-wide slump, averaging just 3.4 runs per game over their last seven games. But that makes this a good time for Gerrit Cole to take the mound after the Yankees went 4-1 during his starts in June.
Despite the Tigers being 16 games under .500, they are a somewhat respectable 18-22 at home this year. Meanwhile, Kansas City has had some bad luck with Brad Keller on the mound, losing eight of his last nine starts and 10 of his 14 starts this season.
The Mets head into this game coming off their first three-game losing streak of the season. But they are are an MLB-best 21-7 when coming off a loss this season, and have the second-best home record in the majors at 24-12.
Even though the Twins didn't close out June on a high, they are still 20-8 (.714) SU this year when they are favored at home. It’s also worth mentioning that the Orioles have lost their last 10 games at Target Field.
The D-backs have had two off days in the last four days and were shut out in the last game they played on Wednesday, so they might be a little out of sync offensively when they arrive at Coors Field. They are also 37-89 (.294) under Torey Lovullo coming off a game in which they scored one run or less.
Houston starter Cristian Javier is allowing just 3.7 hits per start over his 10 starts this season. At the same time, the Angels are just 15-30 when facing a starter that gives up 5.5 hits per game or less. Meanwhile, the Astros are 8-1 ATS over their last nine games and have won five of their last six games SU.
The Dodgers pulled out a 3-1 win on Thursday to increase their NL West lead over San Diego. Unfortunately for the Padres, they remain winless in the seven games that Blake Snell has started this year.
The Mariners are on a little bit of a roll, going 8-2 in their last 10 games with four of those wins coming against the A’s. With Thursday’s loss in Seattle, the A’s have now lost 15 straight night games against American League foes.
Neither of these teams is in good shape at the moment. The White Sox lost six of their last eight games to close out June, losing series to the Orioles and the Angels. The Giants haven’t been much better, going 3-7 during their last 10 games in June. The silver lining for San Francisco is the Giants are 54-30 (.643) under Gabe Kapler whenever they’ve lost two of their last three games.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!