MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Wednesday, June 22
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - Jun 22, 2022, 11:27am EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday
Things hit a fever pitch in baseball on Tuesday with a good mix of day games and night games, not to mention plenty of intriguing matchups. Let’s take a look at everything you need to know about Wednesday’s schedule, including the best bets and key trends for every game.
BetQL subscribers can see betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
MLB BEST BET
Brewers vs. Cardinals Under 9 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
These two teams have the exact same record and after they’ve split the first two games of this series, the Brewers and Cardinals have split their first 10 head-to-head games of the season. That has us staying away from picking a winner and focusing on the run total. The good news is that the BetQL model lists this as a five-star pick for under nine runs. Keep in mind that these two teams have combined for just 10 runs over the first two games of the series, so it would be a drastic change to see them combine for more than nine runs in one game.
Wednesday's game also offers a great pitching matchup that indicates a low-scoring game. Granted, Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer has taken his lumps in June thus far, but he’s still rocking a 3.57 ERA on the season. He also got a win over the Cards earlier this year after giving up just two runs over five innings. Adam Wainwright, meanwhile, has been on point all season. He’s averaging over six innings per start on the season and has only allowed more than three runs three times in 13 starts this year. Neither team is likely to do much damage until the bullpens get involved, making it tough to push the run total to nine runs or more.
TOP PLAYER PROP
Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
Ohtani has hit this under in his last three starts, as he had six strikeouts in his last two starts and he had two in the start before that. Plus, the Royals are very close to the bottom of the league in team total strikeouts with 507. Also, I see the fatigue factor here. Shohei hit two home runs last night and had three hits, so I have a feeling he’ll go under on this total tonight. -- Lucy Burdge
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
The Astros gave the Mets a little bit of a beatdown on Tuesday, although the Mets are 20-4 (.833) this year coming off a loss. They have also won five of the last six games that Carlos Carrasco has started.
The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series, winning both games by one run. Chicago can now pull a game over .500 by completing the sweep of the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Of course, Toronto is 20-9 (.690) when coming off a loss this year. That’s the third-best record in the majors for teams coming off a loss. However, they are just 19-35 (.352) under Charlie Montoyo when trying to bounce back from a one-run loss.
The Rangers have a chance to sweep a two-game set from the Phillies after a 7-0 win on Tuesday. Including that win, Texas has won 14 of 15 when the Rangers have been underdogs against an NL East team. On the other hand, despite back-to-back losses, the Phillies are 14-4 in June and have won six of Zack Wheeler’s last seven starts.
The Padres are going for the three-game sweep on Wednesday, potentially giving them their second sweep in their last three series. For Arizona, a win would be a long time coming, as the D’Backs have lost their last 16 road games against division rivals that have had a winning record.
In the 10 games that Tyler Anderson has started this year, the Dodgers are 8-2. Naturally, his 2.82 ERA is a big reason why Los Angeles gives up just 3.24 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Reds are just 4-24 (.143) against teams that allow 3.5 runs per game or less.
The Rockies are accustomed to high-scoring games at Coors Field. But eight of Colorado’s last nine road games against NL East teams have gone over the run total. That includes the 9-8 Miami win on Tuesday night. However, the Marlins haven’t hit the over in consecutive games since June 9 and 10.
The Nats have responded to an eight-game losing streak with back-to-back wins, including a 3-0 win over Baltimore on Tuesday. But the Orioles still have the best ATS record in the majors, including a 24-10 (.706) ATS record at home. Plus, the Nationals are 3-10 when Patrick Corbin starts, although those three wins have come in his last five starts.
The Pirates have now won three in a row after taking the first two games of this series from the Cubs. On the season, the Cubs are allowing 5.35 runs per game in part because the Chicago bullpen has a 4.78 ERA, which is the second-worst in the majors. That plays in Pittsburgh’s hands, as the Pirates are 27-16 (.628) against National League teams that give up at least 4.5 runs per game and 20-11 (.645) over the last two years against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher.
The Tigers have folded in the spotlight lately, losing their last eight night games against American League opponents. Of course, they are also just 5-12 in their last 17 games whereas the Red Sox are 15-4 thus far in June.
Tampa managed to eke out a 5-4 win on Tuesday, setting up the rubber match of this series on Wednesday. On the season, the Rays are now 4-4 as home underdogs but 104-49 (.680) during Kevin Cash’s tenure when at home with a moneyline of +100 or higher.
The Guardians won in extra innings on Tuesday, bringing these two teams into a tie atop the AL Central standings. That win continued Cleveland’s excellent month of June with the Guardians currently 14-4 this month. That stretch has helped to give the Guardians the third-best record in the majors coming off a win at 21-13 (.618).
These two teams are 5-5 against each other this season and have split the first two games of this series, so this game is close to a toss up. However, the Brew Crew took the loss on Tuesday and has also lost seven in a row following a home loss. At the same time, the Cards are 6-2 in Adam Wainwright’s last eight starts.
With Tuesday’s loss, the A’s are now an embarrassing 8-26 at home this year. Meanwhile, Seattle rookie George Kirby and his 3.56 ERA over the first eight starts of his career could also spell trouble for Oakland on Wednesday. The A’s are 0-16 this year against American League starting pitchers who have an ERA of 3.70 or less.
Don’t look now but the Royals have won five of their last six games and eight of their last 10 games. They even have a chance to pull off a sweep of the Angels on Wednesday and get themselves out of last place if they get a little outside help. However, Kansas City is still one of the worst road teams in baseball, going 13-20 (.394) as road underdogs.
Stories you might also like
See All
