MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Guardians-Yankees ALDS Game 5

MLB Betting Playbook for Monday

Only one MLB Division Series made it to five games, giving us a winner-take-all game between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians on Monday night. Since it’s the only game of the night, let’s take a look at some of the best betting options for Game 5 of the ALDS.

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BEST BETS FOR GUARDIANS-YANKEES ALDS GAME 5

Yankees ML (-150)

While these two teams have split the first four games of this series, the Yankees have still won seven of their 10 head-to-head games with the Guardians this season, including a 4-1 record against Cleveland at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were also tied for the best home record in the majors at 58-25 (.699) during the regular season. That makes them a great home favorite with the BetQL model making this a three-star pick while giving the Yankees a 63% chance of winning.

The Yankees also have a clear advantage when it comes to starting pitching. Despite his struggles when he pitched against the Guardians on Friday, Jameson Taillon had a strong finish to the regular season with the Yankees winning seven of his last eight starts. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s big three starters aren’t available, forcing them to go with Aaron Civale, who posted a 4.92 ERA this year. He was better late in the year with the Guardians winning his last four starts after returning from injury in September. But he also gave up at least two runs in all four of those starts, two of which came against the lowly Royals. With Civale likely to struggle against the New York lineup, look for the Yankees to take an early lead and turn it into a Game 5 win.

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Under 7.5 Runs

While Civale could be vulnerable in this game and Taillon is coming off a poor outing, the under is still the best option in this game, especially with the run total at 7.5 runs. Only one game in this series has finished with more than six total runs. In fact, Cleveland’s six postseason games are averaging just 5.3 total runs. Even in their four wins, the Guardians have scored just 13 total runs while the Yankees are only averaging 3.75 runs in their four playoff games. With the Guardians overly reliant on singles and one or two big hitters to score runs, and the Cleveland bullpen posting a 0.70 ERA in the postseason, runs will be in short supply, making the under a good play in this game.

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Anthony Rizzo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jose Ramirez Each Over 0.5 Hits

For batter prop hits, Rizzo, Kiner-Falefa and Ramirez offer the most value. Rizzo is 4-for-14 with a home run in this series while also going 5-for-10 with three extra-base hits in his career against Aaron Civale. With the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, he might also be the best bet in this game to hit a home run (+425 at DraftKings). Kiner-Falefa is just 1-for-8 in his career against Civale, but he has three hits in three games during the playoffs. He also has a single in his last seven games at Yankee Stadium. Finally, Ramirez is 9-for-27 (.333) in the playoffs thus far. The Guardians need him tonight, and he knows it, so he should give them at least one hit. Ramirez has a hit in every game of this series and in five of six postseason games, making him a good bet. These are all solid bets individually while putting them in a parlay together gives us +290 odds at Caesars.

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