MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Friday, Oct. 14
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - Oct 14, 2022, 9:54am EDT
MLB Betting Playbook for Friday
With a rainout in the American League on Thursday, Friday’s MLB postseason schedule will feature three games rather than two. That will create even more betting opportunities. With both National League series tied 1-1 and hanging in the balance, the more betting opportunities, the better. Let’s take a closer look at each game and the key trends to know about before betting on Friday’s playoff games.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game throughout the postseason. Take advantage of BetQL's free 3-day trial and see all of today's best MLB bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL and college football games! Start your free trial today!
MLB BEST BET
Gleyber Torres, Ronald Acuna, and Jurickson Profar with At Least One Hit Each
With three games on Friday, try a parlay that involves one player from each game getting a hit. The best option in each game, respectively, is Torres, Acuna and Profar. On DraftKings, a parlay of those three players each getting a hit is +249. You can also boost any MLB bet by 40% at DraftKings today, which would take this parlay to +349!
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Among Yankees, Torres offers the best value, as he’s 3-for-6 with a home run in his career against Shane Bieber. He also had a great finish to the season, batting .319 in September. As for Acuna, he has a surprisingly good track record against Aaron Nola, going 13-for-36 (.361) with eight extra-base hits. He’s also 4-for-7 over the first two games of the series, starting the playoffs red-hot. Finally, Profar is 5-for-10 with three doubles in his career against Tony Gonsolin. He’s also 6-for-19 (.316) in the postseason thus far, so he’s poised to keep it going.
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
Thursday’s rainout doesn’t change anything about the stakes in Game 2 on Friday. The Guardians need to be better at generating runs after scoring one run on six hits in Game 1. Nestor Cortes will try to keep Cleveland under wraps while making his postseason debut. The lefty helped the Yankees to win five of his last six starts of the regular season. He did so while posting a 1.80 ERA in September and throwing 7.1 scoreless innings while allowing just one hit against the Orioles in his last start of the season on October 1. Cortes also allowed just three runs on four hits over 12.1 innings against the Guardians this season, so he should be in good shape to face Cleveland’s lineup despite a 13-day layoff.
But don’t expect the Guardians to back down, even on the road. Cleveland was 25-24 SU as a road underdog this year. They’ve also won six of the last seven games started by Shane Bieber, who looked outstanding against the Rays last week, striking out eight over 7.2 innings, allowing one run on three hits. However, after Tuesday’s loss, the Guardians remain winless in four games at Yankee Stadium this year. The Yankees also have a nine-game postseason winning streak against AL Central teams and went 40-12 (.769) this year when playing at home following a win. Even with tight odds, this is the type of game the Yankees tend to win, as Aaron Boone is 69-36 (.657) at home with a moneyline between -100 and -150. That being said, the Yankees are just 51-54 ATS during Boone’s tenure as home favorites with a moneyline between -100 and -150.
The Braves have been coy about their starting pitcher for Game 3, which is part of the reason why they are slight underdogs. That’s a bad omen for the Braves, who were just 7-17 (.292) as road underdogs this season. Atlanta was also just 5-5 in games at Citizens Bank Park this year. The kicker is that the Braves have lost seven of their last eight games against National League teams when playing on the road following a road win.
Atlanta is also an underdog because the Phillies are starting Aaron Nola, who has pitched 13.1 scoreless innings over his last two starts, yielding just six hits and striking out 15. The Braves might have an advantage because this will be the sixth time they’ve faced Nola this year. But the last time Nola started against the Braves was on Sept. 23 at Citizens Bank Park, tossing six shutout innings, allowing four hits while striking out eight. Philadelphia won that game, which was also on a Friday, helping the Phillies go 9-3 ATS in home Friday games this year.
The Padres managed to earn a split of the first two games at Dodger Stadium, giving them a leg up in this series if they can hold serve at home. Naturally, San Diego is still an underdog in Game 3 after going 5-8 (.385) as a home underdog during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were a great road favorite, going 53-23 (.697), the second-best record of any road favorite that was in that situation more than five times. The Dodgers have also won nine of their last 10 road games when trying to bounce back from a loss.
It’ll be up to Blake Snell to keep the Padres in the game. He lasted just 3.1 innings against the Mets during the wild-card round, walking six batters during that start. While he threw five scoreless innings against the Dodgers in late September, Snell also gave up five runs in four innings in a home start against Los Angeles in early September. Plus, the Dodgers were 32-16 (.667) against lefties this year. They will also counter Snell with Tony Gonsolin. While the Dodgers were 19-5 in his starts this year, Gonsolin has thrown just two innings since August, so he remains a wild card in this game.
Take advantage of BetQL's free 3-day trial and see all of today's best MLB bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL and college football games! Start your free trial today!