MLB Betting Guide: Odds, Best Bets For Today

Tilson's BetQL MLB Best Bets

Every weekday throughout the 2023 MLB season, I will reveal my favorite MLB bets using our model, data, statistics and more! Scroll down to see my targets for Opening Day!

Mets at Marlins: Marlins +112 ML (Caesars)

There is value in getting the Marlins plus-money at home with last year's NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara on the mound. The ace is no easy task for any lineup, particularly a Mets group that is coming off a whirlwind Spring Training where most of their stars were around the world representing their countries.

Additionally, they will be without their table-setter Brandon Nimmo, who they rely heavily on to grind out guys like Alcantara. Lastly, Scherzer has been open about his displeasure with the pitch clock. I expect him to adjust, but it is clear he is not comfortable with it right now.

What's more, Caesars has a solid Bet & Get promo today: Opt in and make four $25+ MLB moneyline bets to get a $25 bonus bet! Marlins +112 could be your first wager, and our staff has more suggestions below!

Is the BetQL Model aligned with this pick? Find out by taking a look above. It has a total return of $1,250 on all bets in Alcantara's starts and has hit 63.34% of moneyline recommendations for a total return of $401. Want to tail? Click the button below and lock it in at Caesars now!

Twins at Royals: Over 8.5 Runs (-120, FanDuel)

I like the potential for both offenses in this game. For starters, the wind is supposed to blow out strongly at Kauffman Stadium. Additionally, Zack Greinke does not historically pitch well against the Twins. In his career against Minnesota, he has posted just a 5-13 record with a 4.55 ERA in 30 appearances.

On the other side of things, Pablo Lopez will be making his first Opening Day start. He had a solid campaign in 2022 posting a 10-10 record with a 3.75 ERA, but I expect some nerves for the young pitcher. I anticipate we see both sides pile it on and take advantage of the heavy winds and enormous gaps at Kauffman Stadium. Go with the over at 8.5.

BetQL's MLB Model has a total return of $1,149 on Royals O/U bets all-time. Consult it above and find out if it's aligned with this side of the total. If you're ready to bet it, utilize our exclusive FanDuel offer below now if you don't already have an account!

White Sox at Astros: Astros -1.5 Runs (+135, BetMGM)

Despite losing their star shortstop and MVP Carlos Correa, the Astros lineup remains one of the toughest to navigate in the Major Leagues. While I expect the White Sox to bounce back from a disappointing 2022, I don’t think it will happen for them right away. Additionally, White Sox ace Dylan Cease is coming off of a tough Spring Training; we saw some of the same issues with command that haunted him in the past. I expect him to have a strong campaign in 2023 despite his early struggles, but I don't anticipate things will magically come together against the Astros' top-rated offense, particularly at Minute Maid Park.

On the other side of the ball, Jose Abreu will make his Astros debut, and I anticipate a big game against his old team. I expect Houston to secure a convincing victory in the defending champs' first game back at Minute Maid.

BetQL's MLB Model has gone 45-33 (57.69%) on run line bets when Valdez has started for a total return of $1,305. Check above if it's aligned with this bet and if you want to tail it, take advantage of our exclusive BetMGM offer below!

More MLB Expert Bets From BetQL

Dan Karpuc: Braves & Angels To Both Win (+102, BetMGM)

Braves SP Max Fried went 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA (0.69 WHIP) over 14.1 innings with 19 strikeouts and four walks in Spring Training and is going to face the Nationals, who arguably have the worst offense in the Majors. Not only that, but Patrick Corbin is on the hill for the Nats. He's allowed 64 home runs over the last two seasons and this Atlanta offense should tee off on him.

Shohei Ohtani will take the mound for the Angels in the nightcap against the Athletics, who shouldn't be able to touch him. Kyle Muller will get the starting nod for Oakland and he just allowed 30 hits in 18 Spring Training innings! Yikes. LA's offense is filled with guys who can crush left-handed pitching: Ohtani, Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and more. Rather than betting either of these alone, parlay them together and get plus-money.

Kate Constable: Cubs ML vs. Brewers (+126, FanDuel)
It’s Opening Day at Wrigley Field and as a Chicago resident I feel like it’s necessary that I back the home team in this one. Marcus Stroman is on the mound for the Cubs today. He’s coming off a solid showing in both the World Baseball Classic and spring training with a 0.90 ERA in his three starts. He’ll be going up against Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers. While Burnes might have a slight edge over Stroman, I’d argue that the Cubs batting lineup is superior to Milwaukee’s. With the addition of Cody Bollinger, Trey Mancini and Dansby Swanson, I like the bats for the Cubs to get going today. FanDuel currently has the best number out there, so head over there and grab the Cubs on the moneyline at +126.

Lucy Burdge: Red Sox ML vs. Orioles (-115, BetMGM)

I would never bet against the Red Sox on Opening Day at Fenway Park so I have to go with their moneyline in this one. With Corey Kluber on the mound, I think the Red Sox will kick off their road to proving the doubters wrong this season with a win. And you can get the best odds for their moneyline at -115 at BetMGM!

Matt Horner: Twins -0.5 F5 at Kansas City (-110, DraftKings)

Minnesota will be taking on Kansas City on Opening Day, and that means we get the veteran Zack Greinke on the mound for the Royals. While he wasn’t terrible last season, he has a problem with striking out batters. The last two seasons, his strikeout rates were 17.2 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively. That might go down even further in 2023, as his fastball barely hit 90 MPH. That’s not good news when facing a healthy Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and even Joey Gallo, who we know has power.

Brad Pinkerton: Shohei Ohtani o0.5 hits (+100, DraftKings). To kick off an Opening Day full of promos, DK is boosting Ohtani to get a hit from -195 to +100! This is a no-brainer for the value alone, and be sure to take advantage of DK's other MLB promos today, including a No Sweat Bet (up to $10) and a Stepped Up MLB SGP boost!

MORE MLB Picks: Player Prop Picks | World Series | AL Pennant | NL Pennant | CY Young | MVP