MLB Alternate Total Picks For Today

Alternate Total Betting For June 21

In the realm of Major League Baseball (MLB) betting, there are various wagering options available to enthusiasts looking for more diverse betting opportunities. One such option is alternate total betting, which allows bettors to adjust the total number of runs scored in a game. By exploring alternate total betting in MLB and implementing effective strategies, bettors can enhance their chances of success. In this article, we will delve into the concept of alternate total betting and provide valuable strategies for maximizing its potential.

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Today’s Best Alternate Total Bet

Rangers at White Sox Over 13 Runs (+280, BetMGM)

I project this to be a higher-scoring affair tonight between the Rangers and White Sox with two pitchers that are not very good on the mound. Martin Perez has just not been very good for the Rangers, and he has been a regression candidate for a while now. Perez owns a 4.91 xERA and 4.85 xFIP and faces a White Sox offense that is far better against left-handed pitchers than they are against righties. Chicago ranks 15th with a 103 wRC+ vs. LHP, which is average, but still far better than their 29th ranking against RHPs.

Michael Kopech is one of the bigger regression candidates that we have in MLB. He owns a 3.92 ERA, which is respectable, but his advanced numbers don't paint a pretty picture. His xERA is through the roof (5.08) and his xFIP is also quite high (4.69). He'll have to face off against a Texas offense that is absolutely lethal this season against RHPs. The Rangers rank second in baseball with a huge 118 wRC+, and with Kopech on the horizon of a collapse, this is a team that can do that to him.

You can take the alternate total of 13 runs in this game at a nice +280 price at BetMGM. The regular total is sitting at a very high 9.5 anyways, so if it is going over, it's probably going way over.

Understanding Alternate Total Betting

In MLB, the total, also known as the over/under, represents the combined number of runs scored by both teams in a game. Sportsbooks set a benchmark total, and bettors can wager on whether the actual total will be over or under that predetermined figure. However, alternate total betting provides the flexibility to adjust the total in either direction, offering more diverse betting options.

For instance, if the original total is set at 8.5 runs, bettors can choose an alternate total of 7.5 runs to reduce the risk of a high-scoring game or opt for a total of 9.5 runs to increase their potential payout.

Effective Strategies for Alternate Total Betting

1. Analyze Starting Pitchers

Starting pitchers play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of a game, including the number of runs scored. Before placing an alternate total bet, carefully evaluate the starting pitchers' statistics, such as ERA (earned run average), WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), strikeout rates, and recent form. Focus on pitchers who consistently deliver quality starts, as they are more likely to keep the game low-scoring and increase the likelihood of hitting the under on the alternate total.

2. Evaluate Bullpen Strength

Beyond the starting pitchers, the strength of the teams' bullpens also affects the total runs scored. A strong bullpen can effectively shut down opposing offenses, preventing late-game scoring surges and keeping the total under the original or adjusted figure. Conversely, a weak bullpen may struggle to protect leads, resulting in higher-scoring games. Analyze bullpen statistics, such as ERA, WHIP, and inherited runners stranded percentage, to assess the potential impact on the total runs scored.

3. Consider Weather Conditions

Weather conditions can significantly impact the number of runs scored in a game. Factors such as wind speed, temperature, and humidity can affect how the baseball travels through the air, potentially favoring hitters or pitchers. For example, strong winds blowing in can suppress scoring, while favorable weather conditions, such as high temperatures and wind blowing out, can increase the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Assess the weather forecast and adjust your alternate total bet accordingly.

4. Examine Team Offenses

When considering alternate total bets, evaluate the offensive capabilities of the teams involved. Analyze key offensive statistics, such as team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored per game. Look for teams with potent offenses that consistently produce runs against both strong and weak pitching staffs. This information can guide your decision-making process when adjusting the total for a particular game.

5. Study Historical Matchups

Analyzing the head-to-head history between teams can provide valuable insights when placing alternate total bets. Look for trends in previous meetings, such as teams consistently scoring high or low in their matchups, or patterns related to specific pitchers or ballpark factors. This historical data can help you make informed decisions when adjusting the total for a particular game.

Alternate total betting in MLB offers bettors the flexibility to adjust the total runs scored in a game, providing more diverse betting options.