MLB Alternate Run Line Picks For Today

Alternate Run Line Betting For June 21

In the world of Major League Baseball (MLB) betting, there are numerous wagering options available to enthusiasts beyond traditional moneyline bets. One such option is alternate run line betting, which allows bettors to adjust the spread and potentially increase their chances of winning. In this article, we will delve into the concept of alternate run line betting in MLB and explore some effective strategies to maximize its potential.

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Today’s Best Alternate Run Line Bets

Reds -2.5 Runs vs. Rockies (+135, BetMGM)

Andrew Abbott (3-0, 0.00 ERA) hasn’t allowed a single run in his first three MLB starts (vs. Brewers, at Cardinals, at Astros) and now will get his easiest matchup so far against this terrible Rockies lineup. Cincinnati has won 10 consecutive games outright and should be expected to keep the momentum rolling into this matchup. Meanwhile, Connor Seabold (1-3, 5.88 ERA) will likely pitch the bulk of the game for Colorado (Jake Bird is the opener) and has struggled all year long. The Rockies have dropped seven consecutive games heading into this one and are free falling at the moment. Seabold allowed nine earned runs in his last start and Elly De La Cruz and the rest of the Reds lineup should be able to put up some crooked numbers at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. 

Guardians -2.5 Runs vs. Athletics (+170, BetMGM)

Top Guardians prospect Gavin Williams will make his MLB debut after dominating minor league opponents. In 12 starts, this was his pitching line: 60.1 IP, 35 H, 16 ER (2.39 ERA), 81 K, 24 BB (0.98 WHIP). I’ve been a big fan of Williams’ stuff and I suspect Oakland’s awful lineup will struggle against him. Paul Blackburn (0-0, 3.48 ERA) will get the start for the Athletics and despite their surprising recent success, Oakland’s bullpen is the worst in the Majors and I expect the Guardians to start hitting sooner rather than later.

Understanding Alternate Run Line Betting 

The run line is similar to the point spread in other sports. In traditional run line betting, the favorite must win by a specified number of runs, while the underdog must either win the game outright or lose by fewer runs than the set spread. However, alternate run line betting offers more flexibility by allowing bettors to adjust the spread in either direction.

For example, if the original run line is -1.5 for the favorite, bettors can choose an alternate run line of -2.5 to increase their potential payout. On the other hand, they can opt for an alternate run line of -0.5 to reduce the risk of losing by a single run and potentially increase their chances of winning.

Effective Strategies for Alternate Run Line Betting

1. Analyzing Starting Pitchers

Starting pitchers play a crucial role in MLB games, and their performance can heavily influence the outcome. Before placing an alternate run line bet, carefully assess the starting pitchers' statistics, such as ERA (earned run average), WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), strikeout rates, and recent form. Focus on pitchers who consistently deliver quality starts, as they are more likely to keep the game close and prevent large run differentials.

2. Evaluating Bullpen Strength

Beyond the starting pitchers, consider the strength of the teams' bullpens. A solid bullpen can effectively preserve leads or limit the damage when the starting pitcher exits the game. Conversely, a weak bullpen may struggle to protect leads or provide stability, leading to late-game comebacks or larger run differentials. By analyzing bullpen statistics, such as ERA, WHIP, and inherited runners stranded percentage, you can gain insights into the teams' bullpen performance and make informed alternate run line bets.

3. Assessing Team Offenses

When considering alternate run line bets, it's crucial to evaluate the offensive capabilities of the teams involved. Analyze key offensive statistics, such as team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored per game. Look for teams with potent offenses that consistently produce runs against both strong and weak pitching staffs. This information can help you determine if a team is likely to cover the adjusted run line or fall short.

4. Studying Weather Conditions

As mentioned in the previous article about weather's importance in MLB betting, weather conditions can significantly impact the game. When considering alternate run line bets, take into account how weather conditions, such as wind speed, temperature, and humidity, may influence pitching performance and hitting outcomes. For instance, high temperatures and favorable winds can potentially lead to higher-scoring games, favoring an alternate run line that leans towards the over.

5. Analyzing Historical Matchups

Examining the head-to-head history between teams can provide valuable insights when placing alternate run line bets. Look for trends in previous meetings, such as teams consistently winning or losing by multiple runs, close matchups, or high-scoring affairs. By understanding the dynamics of previous matchups, you can make more informed decisions when adjusting the run line for a particular game.