Home Run Parlay Of The Day: Friday August 2, 2024

While home run parlays are NOT a profitable daily betting strategy, they are a lot of fun. Crafting up and submitting one of these tickets keeps dreams alive, creates endless possibilities and, if you’re lucky, can result in a life-changing payout if it hits. The guys below are all in amazing individual spots, so take a look and consider tailing the whole thing or your favorite legs! (Or, just laugh at it and call it a donation.) Without further ado, here it is:

Yankees CF Aaron Judge vs. Blue Jays

Hitting .316 with 39 homers and 99 RBI, Judge is well on his way to winning another AL MVP award and tonight he will get a nice matchup against Kevin Gausman, who he has hit five homers against in 37 career at-bats. Sporting an insane .370 ISO against RHP this season, Judge has an insane 67.0% hard hit rate and 25.8% barrel rate against that handedness and has crushed all of Gausman’s individual pitches in his arsenal. The righty throws fastballs 56.6% of the time, splitters 22.2% of the time, sinkers 10.6% of the time and sliders 10.6% of the time against RHB and Judge has a .370 ISO (98 batted ball events), .889 ISO (12 BBE), .291 ISO (64 BBE) and .224 ISO (85 BBE), respectively, against those pitches. He’s the best bet to hit a HR everyday and today is no exception.

Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani at Athletics

Batting .309 with 32 home runs and 76 RBI, Ohtani will have five at-bat potential on the road against the Athletics. Oakland SP Joey Estes only has a 12.8% strikeout rate against LHH and has allowed a .246 ISO against that handedness, along with pretty much every other troubling factor. Ohtani crushes RHP to the tune of an insane .395 ISO and has been remarkable against Estes’ most frequent pitches: four-seam fastballs (53.7% frequency by Estes, .429 ISO from Ohtani in 93 BBE), changeups (18.9%, .273) and sliders (13.4%, .825 ISO). Like Judge, Ohtani’s batted ball numbers are absolutely insane in general, as his 70.5% hard hit rate and 23.2% barrel rate against righties convey.

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper at Mariners

Hitting .274 with 24 home runs and 67 RBI, Harper is in a fantastic spot today against Mariners SP Bryan Woo. Although Woo has been pretty much unhittable against RHH, Harper profiles very well on the left side, boasting a .272 ISO against RHP. Woo has only struck out 13.2% of LHH and has notably thrown fastballs 50.6% of the time against that handedness; Harper has a .278 ISO against that pitch and handedness in 66 BBE. Not only that, but Woo’s secondary pitch, a sinker (19.3% frequency), is another one that Harper crushes (.308 ISO in 29 BBE) and his tertiary pitch, a changeup (15.7% frequency) is another that the slugger handles (.282 ISO in 42 BBE), as well as his slider (12% frequency, .400 in 31 BBE). 

Orioles DH Anthony Santander at Guardians

Sandander has very quietly hit 32 home runs and driven in 74 runs for the Orioles this season and enters this game having hit a long ball in three of his last five contests. To be kind, Guardians SP Carlos Carrasco is past his prime and at the tail end of his career and is thus someone we want to take advantage of. He’s allowed plenty of power and hard contact to batters on both sides of the plate, but Santander is tied with teammate Gunnar Henderson for the team lead in ISO (.289) vs. RHP. But, it’s Carrasco’s pitch selection that makes me like Santander more than Henderson, who is also a fine selection. Carrasco throws his changeup 34.8% of the time against LHH, which happens to be his most frequent pitch. Santander crushes that pitch (.324 ISO in 42 BBE) along with the four-seam fastball (24.1% frequency, .242 ISO), curveball (16.5%, .200) and slider (15.8%, .227). This is a great option tonight.

Guardians 1B Josh Naylor vs. Orioles

With 23 home runs and 75 RBI on the year, Naylor is no stranger to the long ball and gets a great matchup against Orioles SP Dean Kremer, who has allowed a .234 ISO to LHH this year. Naylor leads the Guardians with a .249 ISO against RHP, making this stand out as a great option. Most notably, Naylor has crushed four-seam fastballs (.380 ISO in 88 BBE) and cutters (.353 ISO in 20 BBE), which are two of Kremer’s most frequently-thrown pitches. This is a great time for Naylor to groove a fastball over the right-field fence. 

Rangers 3B Josh Jung vs. Red Sox

This is my longshot of the day as I detailed in THIS ARTICLE, but I’ll summarize why here and don’t do a deep dive like I did there. Red Sox SP Kutter Crawford allowed nine home runs in his last two starts combined and has allowed power to both righties (.186 ISO) and lefties (.200 ISO) this season, so I don’t mind not having a platoon advantage here. Jung has teed off against four-seam fastballs from RHP (.327 ISO since start of last season), and that’s Crawford’s go-to pitch against RHB, which could spell trouble for the guy on the mound. Against four-seam fastballs from righties since the start of last season, Jung has a team-leading 78.8% hard hit rate and 20.3% barrel rate on 107 batted ball events with a team-low 16.9% ground ball rate. He grades out as one of the best options of the day in his seventh game of the year.

Giants CF Heliot Ramos at Reds

Ramos is having a great season, hitting .289 with 15 homers and 53 RBI, but has also established himself as a lefty masher, hitting seven homers in 68 at-bats against LHP (compared to eight homers in 216 at-bats against RHP). That has translated to an incredible .441 ISO with a 62.7% hard hit rate and 29.4% barrel rate against RHP. Reds SP Andrew Abbott is a southpaw who has struggled limiting power to RHB (.225 ISO) with plenty of troubling peripherals. Not only that, but Abbott has thrown four-seam fastballs against RHB at a 54% clip, which also works in Ramos’ favor. While the sample size isn’t huge (29 BBE), Ramos has a .565 ISO and insane 38.9% barrel rate against that pitch and handedness! I love his upside in this matchup at HR-friendly Great American Ballpark. 

Potential Payout: $10 to win $116,760.42 (DraftKings)