2023 Home Run Derby Odds, Bracket & Power Rankings

2023 Home Run Derby Odds, Bracket & Power Rankings

The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby bracket is set! Pete Alonso, Randy Arozarena, Mookie Betts, Adolis Garcia, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Luis Robert Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman will compete in the Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park during the MLB All-Star festivities in Seattle.

The Mariners' home park has a reputation of being a pitcher's park, ranking 28th in park factor, according to Statcast. In fact, T-Mobile Park has ranked 24th or worse in park factor over the last six years.

That doesn't mean that the derby isn't going to be exciting, it just means that we might not see players hit home runs with as much ease as we have in years past. Let’s take a look at what factors we might want to weigh more heavily than others and who we think could be a good candidate for a sleeper pick to win the 2023 Home Run Derby.

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2023 MLB Home Run Derby Bracket & Rules

The 2023 Home Run Derby features a prize pool of $2.5 with $1 million going to the winner. As a bracket-style single-elimination tournament with three rounds, batters will have 3 minutes per round in the first and second rounds as well as 2 minutes in the final round. In each bracket, the higher seed will hit second. (Note that once the second hitter exceeds the HR total of his opponent, the round will be over.)

In each round, 30 seconds of extra time will be given to each batter at the end of their allotted time regardless of their performance. However, they can earn an extra 30 seconds if they hit a homer that is 440 feet or more. As seen in previous years, batters will also have one timeout per round and ties will be broken by a 60-second swing-off. If a tie remains after that swing-off, batters will have three-swing swing-offs until a winner can move on (or win the event). 

Home Run Derby Bracket: Matchups and seeding

No. 1 Robert Jr. vs. No. 8 Rutschman

No 2. Alonso vs. No. 7 Rodriguez

No. 3 Betts vs. No. 6 Guerrero Jr.

No. 4 Garcia vs. No. 5 Arozarena

The Home Run Derby champion will be the one who wins three consecutive matchups.

Previous Home Run Derby Winners

Before we pick a winner, we should look at who the previous few Derby winners were and how they won.

2022: Juan Soto at Dodger Stadium

Juan Soto beat Julio Rodriguez in the finals last year despite Rodriguez hitting more homers in the first two rounds. Rodregiuz hit 32 in the first round, 31 in the second round and only 18 in the third round. He looked as if he just ran out of gas in the final round, so selecting a player that will have the endurance to sustain hitting home runs at a high rate through all three rounds is important.

2019-2021: Pete Alonso at Progressive Field & Coors Field

I'm coupling these two years together because Pete Alonso took home the title in both of them. No one loves the derby quite like Alonso and no one takes it quite as seriously as him either. The Mets slugger is looking to become the first player since Ken Griffey Jr. to win three Home Run Derbies. In each of the two seasons that Alonso took home the award, he ranked in the top 1% of the league in Max EV and in the top 8% in xSLG, according to Statcast. In 2019, Alonso started slow in the first and second rounds but found his rhythm in the back half of both rounds and was able to rake in enough homers to advance.

2018: Bryce Harper at Nationals Park

Bryce Harper beat out Kyle Schwarber in extra time to win the 2018 Home Run Derby at his home park. He earned the extra time by hitting two home runs that were at least 440 feet during the 4 minutes of regulation time, proving the importance of back players with strong exit velocity and slugging percentages. Harper went into the Derby only hitting .214 through the first half of the season. That also proves that you shouldn't just back the player with the best batting average or most home runs on the year. Being the batters aren't facing actual MLB pitches, those two factors don't carry as much weight.

2017: Aaron Judge at Marlins Park

Aaron Judge winning at Marlins Park might be the most apples-to-apples comparison we get being Miami's ballpark is also much more of a pitcher-friendly park. Heading into 2017 Derby, Judge led all participants with 29 home runs and had both the longest and hardest-hit homers of the season. His 121.1-mph homer against the Orioles earlier in the season set a record at the time and hit a 495-foot home run. In stadiums like Marlins Park and T-Mobile Park, how far and how hard you hit the ball is certainly going to come into play.

Home Run Derby Power Rankings

8. Adley Rutschman (+2000 to win, 8th seed)

Barrel Frequency: 6.5% (64th)

Average Exit Velocity: 87.9 mph (199th)

Launch Angle: 11.6 degrees (99th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 38.4%

Average HR Distance: 398 feet (148th)

Adley Rutschman is making his first career appearance in the Derby and already has the odds stacked against him. Not only has a catcher never won the event, but as the No. 8 seed, the Orioles' young star will top-seed face Luis Robert Jr. in the first round. Rutschman is a switch hitter and has said he thinks he'll "start" by hitting left handed. We haven't seen too many switch hitters in the Derby, but if he does decide to alternate sides of the plate, his rhythm might be disrupted. Either way, getting past Robert isn't going to be easy, which is why he has the longest odds on the board at +2000.

7. Mookie Betts (+1000 to win, 3rd seed)

Barrel Frequency: 12.2% (31st)

Average Exit Velocity: 92.5 mph (23th)

Launch Angle: 19.6 degrees (10th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 35.4%

Average HR Distance: 397 feet (155th)

I don't like Mookie Betts to win, only because of his size. We saw Julio Rodriguez run out of gas in the final round of last year's Derby and he's much bigger than Betts. At 5-9, I don't think Betts has the size or endurance to put up the necessary numbers to win. His average home run distance and exit velocity are on the lower side compared to the field and definitely well behind his first-round opponent Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

6. Randy Arozarena (+900 to win, 5th seed)

Barrel Frequency: 15.2% (13th)

Average Exit Velocity: 93.0 mph (16th)

Launch Angle: 11.9 degrees (93th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 30.0

Average HR Distance: 400 feet (128th)

The same concern I had for Betts rings true for Randy Arozarena. At 5-11, 185 pounds, I'm not confident that the Rays left fielder will be able to sustain the type of power needed to win this event. His average exit velocity is among the best in MLB, but his launch angle is pretty low which could be an issue at this particular field. Arozarena might not be my pick to win, but after what we saw from him in the World Baseball Classic, I'm confident he'll at least give viewers a show.

5. Pete Alonso (+275 to win, 2nd seed)

Barrel Frequency: 14.9% (15th)

Average Exit Velocity: 89.2 mph (142th)

Launch Angle: 16.3 degrees (38th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 34.6%

Average HR Distance: 405 feet (77th)

Pete Alonso is a Derby veteran, having won the event twice already. He'll look to become the second player to have three Home Run Derby titles, joining Ken Griffey Jr. That said, he was knocked out of the competition last year by Julio Rodriguez, who he'll meet in the first round this year. That's a tough opening-round draw with the home crowd cheering for Rodriguez and rooting against Alonso. I know Alonso takes the event more seriously than most, but I'm not sure that's going to be enough this year.

4. Luis Robert (+400 to win, 1st seed)

Barrel Frequency: 15.6% (11th)

Average Exit Velocity: 89.1 mph (148th)

Launch Angle: 15.8 degrees (46th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 36%

Average HR Distance: 406 feet (65th)

Luis Robert Jr. is having a breakout season with 25 home runs so far. He's also hit the longest of anyone in the league this season at 450 feet. His a career-long home run is 487 feet, so getting the necessary distance on the ball to get out of T-Mobile Park shouldn't be an issue. Robert will certainly have the advantage in the first round against Rutschman, who isn't the same type of power hitter that Robert is, but if he meets Adolis Garcia in the second round, that could be an issue.

3. Julio Rodriguez (+550 to win, 7th seed)

Barrel Frequency: 10.4% (55th)

Average Exit Velocity: 892.7 mph (20th)

Launch Angle: 8.7 degrees (127th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 32.7%

Average HR Distance: 394 feet (191th)

Julio Rodriguez has two things going for him this Derby: experience and home-field advantage. Remember how I mentioned Rodriguez ran out of gas in the final round last year? Well, the crowd behind him should give him enough adrenalin to propel him to the finish. Plus, he can learn from his mistake last season and pace himself a bit better this year. He hit 32 home runs in the first round last season and 31 in the second round, so the power and volume are there. Plus, he knows this park better than any other hitter, giving him a significant advantage.

2. Adolis Garcia (+500 to win, 4th seed)

Barrel Frequency: 16.0% (8th)

Average Exit Velocity: 92.4 mph (25th)

Launch Angle: 15.8 degrees (45th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 33.7%

Average HR Distance: 401 feet (111th)

Adolis Garcia is one of the better power hitters in today's game. His average exit velocity is the second highest among all participants and his max exit velocity and hard-hit rate is in the top 10% of all MLB players this season. His barrel frequency is also the best in the field, so if he can get comfortable and find his sweet spot early, there won't be too many balls staying inside the park. Plus, at +500, we're getting a great price.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400 to win, 6th seed)

Barrel Frequency: 13.4% (21st)

Average Exit Velocity: 94.5 mph (5th)

Launch Angle: 8.4 degrees

Sweet Spot Percentage: 33.6

Average HR Distance: 409 feet (45th)

I mentioned earlier that I'm not backing Rutschman or Betts because of their size. Well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the exact opposite of those two. At 6-2, 245 pounds, Guerrero Jr. is built to be a power hitter. With an average exit velocity of 94.5, only four MLB players rank ahead of him this season. Judge won the 2017 Derby in a pitcher-friendly park because of how hard he was hitting the ball and that's what I expect to see out of the Blue Jays star. Guerrero Jr. also has experience in the Derby, having lost to Alonso in 2019, but he set the Derby record that year with 91 total home runs. It's going to be hard to repeat that performance at T-Mobile Park, but I like him to be the one to bring home the title this year.

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