Best Odds, Picks to Win 2023 MLB Home Run Derby

Home Run Derby Odds, Picks & Best Bets

The MLB All-Star break is here, and while we don't have a full slate of games to bet on as usual, we do have the Home Run Derby on Monday night followed by the All-Star Game on Tuesday night to keep us from going through full baseball withdrawal.

The BetQL staff has put together their favorite HR Derby picks below, along with where you can get the best odds and take advantage of some awesome sportsbook promotions so that you can profit while you enjoy the HR Derby.

Here's a glance at the Home Run Derby bracket:

MORE: HOME RUN DERBY POWER RANKINGS

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Home Run Derby Picks

Kate Constable: Rangers' Adolis Garcia (+700, DraftKings)

Adolis Garcia is one of the better power hitters in today's game and that’s going to come in handy tonight in Seattle's T-Mobile Park, which isn’t one of the league’s most hitter-friendly stadiums. His average exit velocity is the second highest among all participants and his max exit velocity and hard-hit rate is in the top 10% of all MLB players this season. Aaron Judge won the 2017 Derby in a pitcher-friendly park because of how hard he was hitting the ball and that's what I expect to see out of the Rangers star. Garcia’s barrel frequency is also the best in the field, so if he can get comfortable and find his sweet spot early, there won't be too many balls staying inside the park.

At +700, we're getting a great price at DraftKings, which is also offering a 50% profit boost on any HR Derby bet!

Lucy Burdge: White Sox's Luis Robert (+550, Caesars)

Robert is tied with Pete Alonso (and Mookie Betts) for third in the league with 26 home runs and I think he will upset Alonso, the favorite, to win the HR Derby. Last year, Alonso lost in the semifinals after winning it in 2019 and 2021, so I think he’s cooked when it comes to winning the Home Run Derby. This is Robert’s time to shine. 

Brad Pinkerton: Dodgers' Mookie Betts (+2000, FanDuel)

If you asked me to blindly pick a HR Derby winner, I'm probably going with Vladdy. But when you put prices next to their names, Mookie at +1800 stands out like a hanging changeup. Betts is just +1100 at DK and only +1000 at Caesars (another example of why you should always shop around for the best odds), so we're getting incredible value at FanDuel, which is also offering a 30% profit boost on any HR Derby wager -- that would bring Betts' odds to +2600! He's still a longshot, sure, but I'm not going to doubt a former MVP who's tied for third in the league with 26 homers at the break, especially at this price.

Matt Horner: Orioles' Adley Rutschman (+2000, BetMGM)

When it comes to All-Star contests and games, you really don’t know how much effort these guys are going to put into it. There will be laughing and jokes and smiling faces, very nonchalant activity for the most part. That is why I’d only take guys who have longer odds because, in my opinion, they have as good of a chance as anyone. Adley is a young dude making his first appearance in the derby, and he has his dad throwing to him. Perhaps he will care a bit more than some of these guys, who knows, but I’ll gladly take him at +2000 for a bit of beer money.