BetMGM's Biggest Liability To Win AL Pennant
Odds, Splits, and Best Bets for the AL Pennant
Matthew Horner - Aug 5, 2024, 8:15pm EDT
BetMGM Data
Some of the most important information any sports handicapper can have is the betting splits and data from the sportsbooks, which indicates where the tickets and money are going each day. You can use this information to see where the big money is, where the sharp bettors are placing their cash, and where the sportsbooks have their biggest liability. As you may know, casinos keep getting built in Vegas, and not because they are paying out their biggest liabilities in the market.
There has already been a lot of talk about this in the sports betting space, but I figured now would be a good time to share some updated numbers with you, as well as give my best bet after the trade deadline. Baltimore has been raking in the dough this season when it comes to winning the AL Pennant, amassing a whopping 27.4% of the total handle at BetMGM. They are also getting 24.8% of the tickets, so clearly, everyone loves throwing their money on Baltimore to make it to the World Series.
I found it pretty telling, however, that despite all of that money coming in on them they still are not the favorite to win the AL. That honor still belongs to the Yankees, who are sitting at +250 odds to win the pennant compared to Baltimore's +275. New York was in free-fall before the trade deadline, and because of that, the action really slowed on them. They are still holding strong, however, and have been playing better as of late.
Those two teams are dominating the market, with the only teams that are even close being Cleveland (10.8% of tickets) and Houston (10.5% of the handle).
Best Bet
I gave the Yankees as my favorite AL bet before the season began at +900, and I still will maintain that they are my best bet to win the AL. They didn't make a ton of moves at the deadline, but I did like the addition of Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs to shore up the bullpen a bit. This offense has the talent to compete with anyone in baseball, with a 124 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.
If they can get some better pitching out of guys like Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman in the second half, and get Gerrit Cole healthy, I still think they have the best overall roster in the American League.