2024 Home Run Derby Odds, Bracket & Power Rankings

2024 Home Run Derby Odds, Bracket & Power Rankings

The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby bracket is set! Pete Alonso, Alec Bohm, Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, José Ramírez, Adolis Garcia, Teoscar Hernandez and Bobby Witt Jr. will compete in the Home Run Derby at Globe Life Field during the MLB All-Star festivities in Arlington, Texas.

Rangers' home park has been hitter-friendly in years past, but this season it's been a pitcher's park, ranking 29th in Park Factor, according to Statcast. That doesn't mean that the Derby isn't going to be exciting, it just means that we might not see players hit home runs with as much ease as we have in years past.

Let’s take a look at what factors we might want to weigh more heavily than others and who we think could be a good candidate for a sleeper pick to win the 2024 Home Run Derby.

SEE DERBY FORMAT CHANGES

Previous Home Run Derby Winners

Before we pick a winner, we should look at who the previous few Derby winners were and how they won.

2023: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at T-Mobile Park

Guerrero Jr. won the 2023 Home Run Derby, becoming part of the first father-son duo to win the event, with his father Vladimir Guerrero Sr. taking home the title in 2007. Guerrero Jr. beat Randy Arozarena in the final round, tallying a record 25 home runs. Guerrero Jr. had the highest average exit velocity (94.5 mph) of all participants a year ago, which is something that you should consider when looking at this year's field.

2022: Juan Soto at Dodger Stadium

Juan Soto beat Julio Rodriguez in the finals last year despite Rodriguez hitting more homers in the first two rounds. Rodregiuz hit 32 in the first round, 31 in the second round and only 18 in the third round. He looked as if he just ran out of gas in the final round, so selecting a player that will have the endurance to sustain hitting home runs at a high rate through all three rounds is important.

2019-2021: Pete Alonso at Progressive Field & Coors Field

I'm coupling these two years together because Pete Alonso took home the title in both of them. No one loves the derby quite like Alonso and no one takes it quite as seriously as him either. The Mets slugger is looking to become the first player since Ken Griffey Jr. to win three Home Run Derbies. In each of the two seasons that Alonso took home the award, he ranked in the top 1% of the league in Max EV and in the top 8% in xSLG, according to Statcast. In 2019, Alonso started slow in the first and second rounds but found his rhythm in the back half of both rounds and was able to rake in enough homers to advance.

2018: Bryce Harper at Nationals Park

Bryce Harper beat out Kyle Schwarber in extra time to win the 2018 Home Run Derby at his home park. He earned the extra time by hitting two home runs that were at least 440 feet during the 4 minutes of regulation time, proving the importance of back players with strong exit velocity and slugging percentages. Harper went into the Derby only hitting .214 through the first half of the season. That also proves that you shouldn't just back the player with the best batting average or most home runs on the year. Being the batters aren't facing actual MLB pitches, those two factors don't carry as much weight.

2017: Aaron Judge at Marlins Park

Aaron Judge winning at Marlins Park might be the most apples-to-apples comparison we get being Miami's ballpark is also much more of a pitcher-friendly park. Heading into 2017 Derby, Judge led all participants with 29 home runs and had both the longest and hardest-hit homers of the season. His 121.1-mph homer against the Orioles earlier in the season set a record at the time and hit a 495-foot home run. In stadiums like Marlins Park and T-Mobile Park, how far and how hard you hit the ball is certainly going to come into play.

Home Run Derby Odds Board

8. Alec Bohm (+1600)

Barrel Frequency: 8.6% (73rd)

Average Exit Velocity: 90.4 MPH (54th)

Launch Angle: 12.4 degrees (91st)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 36.6% (46th)

Average HR Distance: 398 feet (110th)

Alec Bohm might not be the first name that comes to mind when discussing power hitters, but the Phillies third baseman is set to make his first career appearance in the Home Run Derby. With just 11 homers this season, Bohm isn't known for his power, yet he's having his best year at the plate in several other statistical categories. Competing against some of the biggest names in the field will be challenging, making him a long shot at +1600. However, Bohm's odds have significantly improved, dropping from +2500 to +1600, indicating growing confidence in his potential to surprise.

7. Jose Ramirez (+1400)

Barrel Frequency: 9.2% (62nd)

Average Exit Velocity: 89.6 MPH (66th)

Launch Angle: 18.1 degrees (21st)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 33.3 (90th)

Average HR Distance: 388 feet (185th)

Jose Ramirez has hit 30 or more home runs in multiple seasons, consistently showcasing impressive power. He leads all participants in launch angle, which is crucial in a Home Run Derby setting where hitters need to hit deep and consistent home runs. However, his average home run distance is quite a bit lower than his peers, which makes me worried that he won't benefit from the new bonus time rule that rewards those who hit a home run further than 425 feet with an extra out.

6. Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)

Barrel Frequency: 14.8% (13th)

Average Exit Velocity: 91.4 MPH (29th)

Launch Angle: 9.8 degrees (113th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 32.5 (110th)

Average HR Distance: 395 feet (129th)

Teoscar Hernandez has had a phenomenal start to his first season as a Dodger, hitting 19 homers this year, ranking fourth among all Derby participants. His 14.8% barrel rate is the second-best among all participants, behind only Marcel Ozuna. He's one of the best power hitters in this year's field with a strong average exit velocity and xSLG. Dodgers' players haven't faired well in the Derby as of late with Mookie Betts being knocked out in the first round last year, but Hernandez will try and turn that around.

5. Bobby Witt Jr. (+650)

Barrel Frequency: 14.7% (14th)

Average Exit Velocity: 92.6 MPH (15th)

Launch Angle: 15.2 degrees (49th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 35.8% (52nd)

Average HR Distance: 417 feet (10th)

Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the most exciting young players in MLB and is someone you won't find shying away from a big moment. His 15 home runs on the season are the fifth most among all participants while his 92.6 mph average exit velocity sits in the top 94th percentile in the league. Witt is also 10th in MLB in average home run distance, so despite his inexperience, I think he's a player who presents significant upside.

4. Gunnar Henderson (+550)

Barrel Frequency: 13.9% (19th)

Average Exit Velocity: 92.6 MPH (15th)

Launch Angle: 9.5 degrees (116th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 34.2 (82nd)

Average HR Distance: 401 feet (82nd)

Henderson won AL Rookie of the Year last season and has followed that up with an equally impressive first half to his sophomore season. His 27 home runs are the most by any player in the field and third-most in MLB behind only Aaron Judge (32) and Shohei Ohtani (28), which isn't bad company to be in. At 6'3", 220 pounds, Henderson has the size and stamina to withstand this type of fast-paced, endurance competition, making him one of my top picks to take home the title at +550.

3. Adolis Garcia (+400)

Barrel Frequency: 14.1% (17th)

Average Exit Velocity: 91.5 MHP (27th)

Launch Angle: 15.1 degrees (52nd)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 34.6% (75th)

Average HR Distance: 394 feet (138th)

Adolis Garcia has struggled at points throughout this season but he's still one of the better power hitters in today's game. His average exit velocity is one of the highest among all participants and his max exit velocity is in the top 2% of all MLB players this season. Despite being knocked out of last year's Derby in the first round, that experience will benefit him again in a fairly inexperienced field. Garcia also has a big advantage with this year's contest taking place at his home ballpark, Globe Life Field. If he's able to win, he'll become just the fourth hometown player to win the event and the first since Bryce Harper in 2018.

2. Marcell Ozuna (+375)

Barrel Frequency: 18.0% (5th)

Average Exit Velocity: 93.2 MPH (11th)

Launch Angle: 15.7 degrees (43th)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 42.4% (4th)

Average HR Distance: 408 feet (39th)

Marcell Ozuna sits just behind Henderson in the seasons-long home run standing with 24. Despite this being his first Derby appearance, Ozuna has the second shortest odds to win at BetMGM. He's a two-time Silver Slugger Award winner which goes to show what he's capable of doing at the plate. Ozuna sits in the 90th percentile in barrel%, hard-hit%, LA sweet-spot%, average exit velocity and xSLG. With those types of numbers, I couldn't fault anyone for backing Ozuna even at the second-shortest price.

1. Pete Alonso (+310)

Barrel Frequency: 11.8% (38th)

Average Exit Velocity: 88.6 MPH (90th)

Launch Angle: 15.1 degrees (53rd)

Sweet Spot Percentage: 30.1% (126th)

Average HR Distance: 405 feet (57th)

It's no surprise that Pete Alonso is the favorite to win this year's Derby. He's a Derby veteran, having won the event twice already and was the favorite last year too. He'll look to become the second player to have three Home Run Derby titles, joining Ken Griffey Jr. Alonso takes the event more seriously than most, evident by his 195 home runs in this event, the most by any player in Derby history.