English Premier League
It seems like the 2022 MLB season just ended, but we already have odds out on a ton of awards and futures next season, and you best believe we are going to start examining them for value. There is a ton being offered on the board, and we will have all kinds of articles on some of the better numbers you can get, but we'll take a look at one player in the AL Cy Young race that has a great number on him right now to take home that award in 2023.
Some books aren't even offering Cy Young awards yet, so be sure to shop around to find the best numbers at the books around you. For me, that was DraftKings, where they are listing Houston Astros starting pitcher Christian Javier at +2000 right now to take home the AL Cy Young in 2023.
To me, this is incredible value for a guy that proved last season that he is one of the best in baseball at his position. The Astros are World Series champions, and Javier was a big reason why. He was part of a combined no-hitter in the World Series, which is incredible in the first place, but his numbers throughout last season paint a very pretty picture for him heading into this year.
There is no question that he was absolutely dominant last season: 98th percentile in xBA, 96th in xERA and xwOBA, 95th in xSLG, 94th in K rate and 82nd in whiff rate and hard hit rate (per Statcast). He crushed everyone last season, and his counting stats back him up: 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA, .095 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, and a 152 ERA+. His second half of the season is what got me hooked, as I think he can build off of what he did last season. Over the second half: 5-4 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. He held opposing lineups to a .152 batting average and .505 OPS. Those are some incredible numbers, and if he can translate them to 2023, he can definitely be a contender for this award.
Besides the numbers, he's starting to get attention around the league, and that means people will be looking at him more as a star. Sometimes guys that are sleepers don't get the votes because they don't have "big names", but Javier has become one of the more well-known pitchers in baseball. Now that he has established himself as a full-time top-end starter in the rotation and +2000 is a ton of value for a guy that was as good as he was last season. Sprinkle it and wait for the reward.