Pittsburgh Pirates vs

St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals are 2-4 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 4-2 on the road this season. The Cardinals have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery is forecasted to have a better game than Pirates starter Vince Velasquez. Jordan Montgomery has a 71% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Vince Velasquez has a 29% chance of a QS. If Jordan Montgomery has a quality start the Cardinals has a 87% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 5.2 and he has a 44% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 80%. In Vince Velasquez quality starts the Pirates win 47%. He has a 13% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 47% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Paul Goldschmidt who averaged 2.52 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 44% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 84% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Bryan Reynolds who averaged 1.87 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 29% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 38% chance of winning.