San Diego Padres vs

Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 35-15 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the San Diego Padres who are 30-23 on the road this season. The Dodgers have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Tony Gonsolin has a 36% chance of a QS and Sean Manaea a 40% chance. If Tony Gonsolin has a quality start the Dodgers has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.1 and he has a 14% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Dodgers win 67%. If Sean Manaea has a quality start the Padres has a 65% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.3 and he has a 12% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 47%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Los Angeles Dodgers is Freddie Freeman who averaged 2.62 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 48% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Dodgers have a 68% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Josh Bell who averaged 2.54 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 56% chance of winning.