Philadelphia Phillies vs

Cincinnati Reds Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds are 3-2 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Philadelphia Phillies who are 1-5 on the road this season. The Reds have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Reds starter Nick Lodolo is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies starter Bailey Falter. Nick Lodolo has a 60% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Bailey Falter has a 45% chance of a QS. If Nick Lodolo has a quality start the Reds has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 8 and he has a 41% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 59%. In Bailey Falter quality starts the Phillies win 62%. He has a 40% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 62% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Jake Fraley who averaged 2.96 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 52% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 70% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Bryson Stott who averaged 2.02 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 33% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 58% chance of winning.