Pittsburgh Pirates vs

Boston Red Sox Prediction

The Boston Red Sox are 41-26 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 21-46 on the road this season. The Red Sox have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Red Sox starter Dustin May is forecasted to have a better game than Pirates starter Johan Oviedo. Dustin May has a 57% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Johan Oviedo has a 38% chance of a QS. If Dustin May has a quality start the Red Sox has a 80% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.1 and he has a 21% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 72%. In Johan Oviedo quality starts the Pirates win 60%. He has a 18% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 60% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Alex Bregman who averaged 2.51 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 78% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Andrew McCutchen who averaged 1.84 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 26% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 46% chance of winning.