2022 Tour Championship Best Bets
Here’s who you should target at East Lake
Dan Karpuc - Aug 23, 2022, 9:22pm EDT
The 2022 Tour Championship marks the end of the 2021-2022 PGA season and the culmination of the 16th FedExCup Playoffs. East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta will host this event for the 30 qualifying golfers and first place will pay out an absurd $18 million, as far down as 10th place will award $1 million and last place will walk away with $500k. Not bad for four rounds of golf. This Par-70, 7,346-yard course will require an all-round performance from the contenders and the field averaged 68.81 strokes per round in the 2021 edition, so scoring has the potential to be low.
One very important aspect to note this week is that not everyone will start at even par. A staggered scoring system is in place, so FedExCup leader Scottie Scheffler will take a two-stroke advantage into the opening round. Scheffler will start at -10, Patrick Cantlay at -8, Xander Schauffele at -6, Sam Burns at -5 and various groups between -4 and even par. That’ll make betting this week’s tournament much different than usual, so make sure you check out the specific bet descriptions when placing your wagers. Keep scrolling down to check out our model’s best bets.
The 2022 Tour Championship marks the end of the 2021-2022 PGA season and the culmination of the 16th FedExCup Playoffs. East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta will host this event for the 30 qualifying golfers and first place will pay out an absurd $18 million, as far down as 10th place will award $1 million and last place will walk away with $500k. Not bad for four rounds of golf. This Par-70, 7,346-yard course will require an all-round performance from the contenders and the field averaged 68.81 strokes per round in the 2021 edition, so scoring has the potential to be low.
One very important aspect to note this week is that not everyone will start at even par. A staggered scoring system is in place, so FedExCup leader Scottie Scheffler will take a two-stroke advantage into the opening round. Scheffler will start at -10, Patrick Cantlay at -8, Xander Schauffele at -6, Sam Burns at -5 and various groups between -4 and even par. That’ll make betting this week’s tournament much different than usual, so make sure you check out the specific bet descriptions when placing your wagers. Keep scrolling down to check out our model’s best bets.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Here’s a list of our recent winners, starting with last week:
Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Justin Thomas To Win (+2500, Caesars)
BetQL Projection: +338 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Thomas will start this tournament at -3, seven strokes behind Scheffler. That’s a huge margin to make up, but the 25/1 odds you can get on that outcome at Caesars is worth the risk for a number of reasons. First, JT is one of the few golfers on tour with virtually no major deficiencies in his game. That, of course, is a huge element in posting low enough scores to contend on Sunday. He ranks 3rd on Tour in Birdie Average (4.53), 3rd in Scoring Average - Actual (68.97) and 7th in SG: Total (1.70).
When he gets the ball on the green, his elite 42.67% one-putt rate (8th on Tour) proves that he can find the bottom of the cup with consistency as he also ranks 3rd on Tour in SG: Tee-To-Green. Scheffler at +220 is a solid play given his head start, but if you want to capture the most amount of value possible, our model is pointing to Thomas. Take advantage of this using our exclusive offer below!
Jon Rahm Top 5 Finish (+190, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: -152 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rahm will start at -3 and has the same type of all-around elite game that Thomas has. On the plus side, we don’t need him to win the tournament and instead just need him to finish in the top five. Rahm ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee, 1st in Total Driving, 2nd in Greens In Regulation Percentage, 3rd in SG: Total, 4th in SG: Tee-To-Green and is one of the most aggressive players in the world. He ranks 3rd in Going For The Green - Green Hit Percentage and will have no hesitation when he has an angle to exploit.
BetQL’s model is giving him -152 odds, a 60.32% implied probability to finish in the top five. That makes FanDuel’s +190 odds a very solid value.
Collin Morikawa Top 10 Finish (+210, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: -131 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After a final round at the BMV Championship that included a quintuple bogey 10 on hole No. 12, Morikawa ruined a solid chance to earn some more points and give himself a better starting position this week, but he will begin at -1. His approach game should allow him to get back in this mix this week, though, as he ranks 5th in SG: Approach The Green. He also ranks 3rd in Proximity To Hole, 4th in Fairway Proximity, 9th in Total Driving, 15th in Scoring Average and has elite approach numbers from different ranges, a nice variation that makes him a threat with all of his clubs. BetQL is giving Morikawa -131 odds to finish in the Top 10, a 56.71% implied probability. You can get +210 odds on this outcome at DraftKings, a solid bargain to close out the season with.
