2023 Sony Open: Best Bets & Sleeper Picks

2023 Sony Open Best Bets

Wai’alae Country Club in beautiful Honolulou, Hawaii will host this week’s Sony Open as 144 of the world’s best golfers compete for their share of the $7.9 million purse. The Par-70, 7,044-yard course had a scoring average of (a very low) 67.998 last year and this tournament has been a yearly staple on Tour since 1965. Despite that, only one golfer (Russell Henley) won in his debut at the course, so our model’s best bets below will key in on multiple players with experience at Wai’alae.

We hit Jon Rahm’s Top 5 finish (+145) at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week when he won the entire event, so take a look at who we’re recommending below!

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Sungjae Im To Win (+1200, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

Sungjae Im ranks 1st in this field in Par-4 Scoring by a huge margin (T3rd on Tour) which matters a ton on this course. In fact, five of the last eight winners of the Sony Open have ranked first or second in Par-4 Scoring. All eight winners registered T6 or better on the 12 Par-4 holes, which plays right into Im’s major strength.

Coming off a T13 at nearby Kapalua last week, this will be Im’s fifth Sony Open start. While he hasn’t had great results at this event in the past, his form is solid at the moment and he has the ability to go very low, which is important since the winner will likely have to shoot in the -20 to -23 range due to the perfect conditions this week. BetQL is listing this as a three-star value.

Russell Henley Top 5 Finish (+500, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a special place for Russell Henley, who won his first PGA Tour championship here 10 years ago. As mentioned above, that was the first and only time someone won in their debut at the course. Last year, he lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff after leading by three strokes after the first two rounds and two strokes after the first three rounds. This course has been very good to Henley over the years and it’s always a great idea to back him at this event. BetQL is giving his FanDuel odds a four-star value rating and lists him at +312.

Webb Simpson Top 10 Finish (+550, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Consistency has been the name of the game for Webb Simpson at this event; he’s made 12 of 12 cuts. While he disappointed with a T61 last year, Simpson enjoyed seven consecutive Top 20 or better finishes, including three straight T4 or better finishes. Coming off of an injury, the veteran is still trying to regain his form which is why his odds are so long, but given his course history, this is an opportunity to take advantage of +550 odds at BetMGM. Our model is giving him at +193, which makes those BetMGM odds extremely valuable. This is our best bet on the board this week and the only five-star value listed in this article.

Emiliano Grillo Top 20 Finish (+225, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Emiliano Grillo posted two Top 5 finishes in his last five starts of the 2022 calendar year and even had two more T2 finishes in the previous five starts to close out the previous season. Therefore, he’s in fantastic form and a solid bet to finish in the Top 20 at +225 odds at DraftKings. Our model is giving him +113 odds, so there’s a nice bit of value available!

Adam Long Top 40 Finish (+240, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

To post scores low enough to make the presumed cut, golfers are going to have to perform on the greens. Adam Long ranks 10th in SG: Putting in this field and our model is giving him -151 odds to finish in the Top 40 this week. You can get +240 odds on that outcome at FanDuel, which is clearly one of the best bets of the week, per the data.