Tournament: Sanderson Farms Championship
Dates: September 29 - October 2, 2022
Location: The Country Club Of Jackson (Jackson, Mississippi)
Purse: $7.9M ($1.4 To Winner) | Par: 72 | Yardage: 7,461
World No. 12 and defending Sanderson Farms Championship winner Sam Burns is the clear favorite this week after making an appearance at the Presidents Cup last week. Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Sebastian Munoz are the two other Presidents Cup participants in the field, as are former event champion Scott Stallings and Sahith Theegala (T8 last year after 54-hole lead). However, after he set the tournament scoring record last season (22-under 266), Burns is the clear guy to beat, as he led the field in Strokes-Gained: Off-The-Tee, SG: Tee-To-Green and Greens In Regulation, per PGATour.com. Here are the golfers with the shortest odds, per BetMGM:
Sam Burns (+1000) | Sahith Theegala (+1800) | J.T. Poston (+2000) | Russell Henley (+2500) | Taylor Montgomery (+2500) | Denny McCarthy (+2800) | Scott Stallings (+2800) | Davis Riley (+3300) | Emiliano Grillo (+3300) | Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+4000) | Keegan Bradley (+4000) | Thomas Detry (+4000) | Trey Mullinax (+4000) | Gary Woodland (+5000) | Harris English (+5000) | Justin Lower (+5000) | Seamus Power (+5000) | Sepp Straka (+5000) | Taylor Moore (+5000) | Wyndham Clark (+5000) | SEE ALL
At 7,461 yards, this Par 72 course checks in as a long venue as the four Par 5 holes prove. The 3rd Hole is a 591-yard behemoth, as is the 612-yard 5th. The 11th (554 yards) and 14th (584 yards) will also necessitate length off the tee. For players who can reach those Bermuda greens in two on those holes, scoring opportunities will be present. Last year, the scoring average on the 3rd was 4.519 (49% birdies, 46% pars), 5th was 4.748 (31% birdies, 62% pars), 11th was 4.601 (46% birdies, 45% pars) and 14th was 4.649 (42% birdies, 49% pars), per PGATour.com. Therefore, this week, we are going to target guys with an ability to get distance off the tee.
This is the 9th year that the Sanderson Farms Championship is hosted at this tree-lined club. As Burns showed last season, length off the tee matters, but accuracy with irons is also paramount to success on this course.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Sam Burns To Win (+1100, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: +964 ⭐⭐⭐
Burns is the favorite to win this tournament, but he’s clearly the best golfer in this field, so it makes sense. As mentioned above, he won this event last year and set the tournament scoring record (22-under 266), led the field in Strokes-Gained: Off-The-Tee, SG: Tee-To-Green and Greens In Regulation, per PGATour.com. As the 12th-ranked golfer in the world, the next-best player in the OWGR is Sepp Straka (36th), and Burns also has a T3 at this event. I have a lot of confidence in him this week, as does the model, which clearly labels him as the best bet to win.
Russell Henley Top 5 Finish (+500, BetMGM)
BetQL Projection: +331 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Looking at previous events played on Bermuda greens over the last two years, Henley ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained per round, per Yahoo. Not only that, but his performance on this putting surface tends to be a major factor compared to his baseline outcomes. This is one of our model’s top values of the week; we’re giving him +331 odds to finish in the Top 5. That makes BetMGM’s +500 odds a solid value.
Denny McCarthy Top 10 Finish (+270, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: +249 ⭐⭐⭐
In his last four starts on this course, McCarthy has two Top 10 finishes and hasn’t finished worse than T18. Per GolfChannel.com, he’s ranked either 1st or 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting in three of the last four years and is one of the world's best Bermuda green putters. BetQL is giving him +249 odds to record a Top 10 finish here, which makes FanDuel’s +270 odds a decent bargain. Keep in mind that he’s finished in the red in 16 of his last 17 rounds at this event, which is the consistency we’re looking for.
Seamus Power Top 20 Finish (+190, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: +132 ⭐⭐⭐
We're projecting DraftKings' +190 odds for Power to finish in the Top 20 as a three-star value (+132 projected).
Stewart Cink Top 30 Finish (+250, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: -120 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
We're projecting Cink to finish in the Top 30 (-120 odds), but you can get +250 odds on FanDuel right now.
Patton Kizzire Top 40 Finish (+200, BetMGM)
BetQL Projection: -167 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The model is projecting Kizzire to finish in the Top 40 (-167 odds), but you can get +200 odds on BetMGM at the moment.
Thomas Detry To Finish In The Top 40 (-135, BetMGM)
Of those who made the cut at the Fortinet Championship, Detry led the field in SG: Off-The-Tee en route to a T12 finish. Known as a proven ball-striker splitting time between tours, he also ranked 10th in SG: Tee-To-Green at that event and averaged five birdies per round along with 315.5 yards per drive.
Over the last two seasons, he’s made the cut in all six of his PGA Tour events and has recorded the following results: T12 (Fortinet), T34 (The Open), T10 (Genesis Scottish Open), T15 (Corales Puntacana Championship), T22 (World Wide Technology Championship) and T22 (Butterfield Bermuda Championship). In a weaker-than-normal field, this is clearly my favorite bet of the week and he’s a great inclusion in any parlay as well.