The PGA Tour continues to Port Royal Golf Course in beautiful Bermuda for this week’s Bermuda Championship. Some of the world’s best golfers will compete for the $6.5M purse and BetQL’s PGA Model identified five finishing position value bets to take advantage of.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
BetQL Projection: +1147 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
McCarthy is the betting favorite to win this tournament and has odds as short as 14/1 at some books. He hasn’t gotten off to a very hot start in the new PGA season, with three Top 40 finishes, but he has enjoyed playing this course in recent years. McCarthy has two Top 15 finishes here including a T4 in 2020 (including a final round 63), which is exactly the type of course fit we’re looking for in a watered-down field like this. He has shot under par in 10 of his 12 rounds here, so it's clear that he's comfortable.
Our model is giving McCarthy +1147 odds to win which is a noticeable difference from the +1800 odds you can get at Caesars right now. Best part: if you don’t already have a Caesars account, you can bet this on them up to $1,250, meaning that if you bet it and it loses, you can get a full refund up to the amount of your wager.
BetQL Projection: +367 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
At just 6,828 yards, this Par 71 course is the shortest on the PGA Tour and Power profiles extremely well for it (which is ironic due to his last name). He ranks 11th in the field in SG: Off The Tee, 5th in Putting: Birdie Or Better Percentage and 8th in Scrambling, all of which are going to be essential this week. In his previous experience at this course, he finished T12 (-10) and ranked T12 in Fairways Hit and T12 in Greens In Regulation with 18 birdies and an eagle compared to eight bogeys and a double bogey. There’s a lot to like about the Irishman this week, as his No. 48 ranking in the Official World Golf Ranking is the highest in the field.
BetQL is giving him +367 odds to finish in the Top 5, which makes his +500 odds at DraftKings a solid value. Sign up for a new DraftKings account now, bet $5 on any moneyline and get $200 in free bets if it wins! Then, use some of that $200 on this particular bet or anything else you want to get action on!
BetQL Projection: +151 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ghim finished T14 here two years ago and will look to build on his T56 finish at the Shriner’s Open. There’s no denying the slump that Ghim is in right now (three missed cuts in his last five events), but he held on to finish 125th in the FedExCup standings last season to keep his PGA card and has flirted with contention at multiple events over the course of the last calendar year. Based on the field that he will be competing against, this seems like a great week for Ghim to turn things around on a course where his ball-striking can shine.
This is one of the best values of the week according to our model. BetMGM has Ghim at +600 to log a Top 10 finish, but we have that outcome at +151, a massive difference and five-star value. Bet this risk-free at BetMGM up to $1,000 if you don’t already have an account there!
BetQL Projection: -109 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Back in 2020, Lebioda finished with a 63 en route to a T3, followed that up with a T16 in 2021 and missed the cut last year. Overall, he finished with 68 strokes or better in five of his 10 rounds at Port Royal, which is always good to know. Per Golf Channel, Lebioda is the third-best golfer in this field (at this course) in terms of SG: Approach. While it’s a small sample, it seems like his past rounds in Bermuda indicate that he’s a strong bet to finish in the Top 20.
BetQL’s PGA Model is giving him -109 odds to finish in the Top 20 and you can get +300 odds for that outcome over at PointsBet. If you don’t already have a PointsBet account, you can also sign up and bet this risk-free right now using the button below!
BetQL projection: -268 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Stuard carded a T12 at the Fortinet Championship and a T61 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and has already made $157,889 in 2022-2023. Not bad, right? He ranks 15th on Tour in SG: Approach The Green (one of this week’s most essential metrics), 3rd in Proximity To Hole, 7th in Going For The Green - Birdie Or Better, 26th in Scrambling, 16th in Overall Putting Average, 12th in One Putt Percentage and 11th in Three Putt Avoidance. Yes, it’s still very early in the year, but his game is in a solid place right now and he should easily finish in the Top 40 this week.
Our model is giving him -268 odds to accomplish that feat and it’s pretty crazy that you can get this at +150 over at FanDuel right now. If you’re a new FanDuel users, you can bet this with no sweat up to $1,000, which means that if you bet it and lose, you’ll get a full refund in free bets up to the amount you wagered.