2024 Masters PGA Picks, Predictions & Sleepers

2024 Masters Sleeper Picks & Predictions

The 2024 Masters Tournament will take place at historic Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia from April 11-14. As the first of four men’s golf majors, it will attract most of the world’s best golfers who will battle it out for their share of $18 million, including $3.24 million and the coveted Green Jacket for the winner. 

Jon Rahm won that most famous jacket in sports last year and here’s a list of some other recent winners: Scottie Scheffler (2022), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Dustin Johnson (2020), Tiger Woods (2019), Patrick Reed (2018), Sergio Garcia (2017), Danny Willett (2016) and Jordan Spieth (2015). 

When betting on this course, it’s important to look at certain types of data. We will get into all of the metrics below, found directly on PGATour.com, and will also reveal the picks from our PGA Model.

How to Bet The Masters

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player, and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history.

Note: odds presented below come from BetQL’s PGA Model. Star ratings are on a 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

After running our PGA Model, these particular finishing position bets are standing out with the most value on the board. 

Top Finishing Position Model Picks For 2024 Masters

Scottie Scheffler To Win (+425, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Scheffler +395 odds to win the tournament, making his +425 price a three-star value. Scheffler is the No. 1-ranked golfer on the planet via OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) and the favorite to win this event. He's been fantastic at Augusta, finishing inside the top 20 in all five of his appearances. He won here in 2022 and already has six top-10 finishes this season, including wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship. Simply put, he has been on a tear and there is no one more likely to have a good performance here.

Jon Rahm Top-5 Finish (+300, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Rahm +153 odds to finish in the top five at the Masters, making his +300 odds at BetRivers a four-star value. Rahm is the No. 3-ranked golfer in the world via OWGR, and has been consistently one of the very best for years now in his prime. This will be his eighth Masters, and he has finished inside the top 10 at Augusta in five of the last six years. He won here last year for his first green jacket and second career major victory.

Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish (+350, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Cantlay +120 odds to finish in the top 10, making his +350 odds at BetRivers an incredible value. Cantlay is ranked No. 7 in the world via OWGR, and the veteran golfer has also been one of the best around over the last five years. This will be his eighth Masters appearance, and has finished inside the top 20 at Augusta National in three of the last five years. He finished inside the top-15 in three of the four majors in 2023, so he always seems to step his game up when the lights are brightest. He has never claimed a green jacket, but he will certainly be trying to do so here.

Collin Morikawa Top-20 Finish (+150, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Morikawa -148 odds to finish in the top 20 at Augusta, making his +130 odds at DraftKings a four-star value. Morikawa is the No. 16-ranked golfer in the world via OWGR, and the American is just now starting to enter his prime years. This will be his fifth Masters appearance, and he has made the cut in his last four appearances here. He placed inside the top 10 in 2022 and 2023 at Augusta National, so he knows this course very well. He has two major victories, both in the Open Championship, and will be looking for his first green jacket.

MORE: Take advantage of these Masters sportsbook offers!

Our Favorite Masters Sleeper Picks

Hideki Matsuyama To Win (+2500, DraftKings)

Matsuyama has been in great form and as a past Masters champion in 2021, I love his outlook heading into Augusta this season. He’s made the cut in all 12 of his Masters appearances and has finished T16 and T14 since his 2021 win and before that, he finished T13, T32, 19, T11, T7, 5, T68, T54 and T27. Known as an elite iron player and as one of the best ball-strikers on Tour, he dazzled with a 7-under 65 in the third round back in 2021, finishing three strokes ahead of the field which proved that he can take over on this course when he’s clicking on all cylinders.

The big question mark has always been with his putter, but when he’s rolling the ball well on the greens, he frequently finds himself in contention. This season, he ranks 3rd in Official Money won, 1st in SG: Around-the-Green, 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 6th in Total Eagles and enters this event in great form, having won the Genesis Invitational in February followed by a T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship. I think there’s a ton of value at +2500 and am also very interested in his +188 Top-10 Finish over at BetRivers as well.

Corey Conners Top-10 Finish (+500, Bet365)

What if I told you that you can get an outcome that has happened in three of the last four years at +500? Well, that’s exactly the case here. Conners missed the cut at last year’s Masters, but finished T6 in 2022, T8 in 2022 and T10 in 2020. (He also made two other appearances: T46 in 2019 and T73 in 2015.)

The 32 year old Canadian ranks 2nd on Tour in Greens In Regulation Percentage, 2nd in Approaches from > 275 Yards, 5th in Approaches from > 200 Yards and 6th in SG: Approach the Green and also ranks 18th in Going For The Green, which is important to note since all four Par 5’s at Augusta are reachable in two and eight of the 10 Par 4’s are between 450 and 520 yards. Also ranking 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 15th in SG: Off-the-Tee, he has all of the predictive numbers on his side to get in contention if he can clean up his short game. He’s made the cut in all eight of his events played this season and most recently posted a T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship.

Byeong-Hun An Top Korean (+150, BetMGM)

BetMGM has An leading a group that contains Tom Kim (+225), K.H. Lee (+333) and S.H. Kim (+550) in this market and I think An clearly projects the best. Ranking 1st in Total Driving Efficiency, 2nd in Approaches from > 100 Yards, 2nd in Fairway Proximity, 2nd in Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage, 2nd in Par Breakers, 2nd in Birdie Average, 1st in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders, 2nd in Final Round Scoring Average, 3rd in Approaches from > 275 Yards, 4th in Round 4 Scoring Average and 9th in Par 4 Scoring Average.

The 32 year old’s game has been mostly on point this season with the lone exception of his last event at THE PLAYERS, where he missed the cut. Earlier in the season, he finished T2 in a playoff at the Sony Open, 4 at The Sentry and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, relying on his elite approach play. While his past here at Augusta National (MC’s in 2010, 2016 and 2021 and a T33 in 2017) isn’t a positive factor for him, he’s transformed his game and is clearly playing the best golf of his career right now.

2024 Masters Promos

DraftKings Bet & Get: When you place any golf wager up to $25, you will get another bonus bet back equal to that wager! This is a great spot for a first-round bet to get a quick bonus and payout to use on the rest of the tournament.

BetMGM Masters Bonus Bet: BetMGM is giving customers a bonus bet to use on any Masters wager! Just log in to see what amount you got for your Masters bonus bet!

Caesars Top 5 Insurance: Place a bet on the tournament winner, and get a bonus bet back if your golfer loses but finishes in the Top 5! Even with insurance, it's best to play this one safe and stick to our model's pick of Scheffler since your golfer must place in the top five to get your stake back. Scheffler gives you a great chance at insurance, if not a win.

BetRivers Top 10 Insurance: This is essentially the same as Caesars, but instead of the top five, we get a bonus bet back if our golfer loses but finishes in the top 10! You can reach a little further here and take Jon Rahm (+1200), who our model actually likes to place in the top five, giving us some extra cushion for insurance.

Bet365 50% Profit Boost: Bet365 is simply offering a 50% profit boost on any Masters bet! We highlighted a Corey Conners to-10 finish for +500 at Bet365, and that's a great spot for this boost, taking it all the way up to +750!

These betting promos can give you much more bang for your buck, especially when paired with any of the welcome offers below!

2024 Masters Odds

The following golfers have the top odds to win the 2024 Masters, per BetMGM (odds as of April 8):

Masters Insights from BetMGM

Tournament Winner

Line movement (Open to Now)

• Scottie Scheffler +900, +400
• Jon Rahm +750, +1200
• Xander Schauffele +2000, +1400
• Tiger Woods +10000, +12500

Highest Ticket%

• Scottie Scheffler 14.5%
• Brooks Koepka 8.6%
• Rory McIlroy 8.5%
• Jon Rahm 5.5%
• Xander Schauffele 5.3%

Highest Handle%

• Scottie Scheffler 19.2%
• Brooks Koepka 11.0%
• Rory McIlroy 8.9%
• Xander Schauffele 5.5%
• Jon Rahm 5.2%

Biggest Liabilities

• Tiger Woods
• Brooks Koepka
• Scottie Scheffler
• Rory McIlroy
• Wyndham Clark

First-Round Leader

Highest Ticket%

• Scottie Scheffler 19.2%
• Rory McIlroy 7.8%
• Xander Schauffele 5.2%
• Jon Rahm 5.1%
• Brooks Koepka 4.6%

Highest Handle%

• Scottie Scheffler 20.6%
• Rory McIlroy 6.9%
• Xander Schauffele 5.1%
• Jon Rahm 4.3%
• Hideki Matsuyama 4.0%

Biggest Liabilities

• Scottie Scheffler
• Rory McIlroy
• Xander Schauffele
• Cameron Young
• Jon Rahm

Finishing Place (ticket%)

Most-bet Top 5

• Scottie Scheffler 18.5%
• Rory McIlroy 11.8%
• Brooks Koepka 7.5%
• Jon Rahm 7.3%
• Xander Schauffele 6.3%

Most-bet Top 10

• Rory McIlroy 11.2%
• Xander Schauffele 9.0%
• Jon Rahm 7.9%
• Brooks Koepka 5.9%
• Hideki Matsuyama 5.7%

Most-bet Top 20

• Sahith Theegala 6.2%
• Tiger Woods 4.7%
• Cameron Smith 3.8%
• Matt Fitzpatrick 3.7%
• Shane Lowry 3.6%

The Cut (most bet by tickets)

To Make the Cut

• Tiger Woods (+100)
• Phil Mickelson (+115)
• Fred Couples (+375)
• Cameron Smith (-275)
• Adam Scott (-275)

To Miss the Cut

• Akshay Bhatia (+190)
• Rickie Fowler (+130)
• Bryson DeChambeau (+275)
• Rory McIlroy (+550)
• Jordan Spieth (+320)

Players to make the cut - Specials

• Woods, Mickelson & Fowler (+600)
• Schauffele, Matsuyama & Koepka (-160)
• Finau, Thomas & Dustin Johnson (+120)
• DeChambeau, Cantlay & Zalatoris (+115)
• Clark, Hovland & Fitzpatrick (-110)

Other popular markets (most bet by tickets)

Top LIV Golfer

• Brooks Koepka (+450)
• Jon Rahm (+275)
• Joaquin Niemann (+550)
• Cameron Smith (+750)
• Bryson DeChambeau (+750)

Top Debutant

• Wyndham Clark (+333)
• Akshay Bhatia (+700)
• Ludvig Aberg (+300)
• Denny McCarthy (+800)
• Stephan Jaeger (+1200)

Tiger Woods Props

Will Tiger Woods make the cut?

• Yes (+100): 88.3% tickets, 89.4% handle
• No (-135): 11.7%, 10.6% handle

Tiger Woods Specials (most bet by tickets)

• To shoot 72 or lower in all 4 rounds (+1600)
• To finish in the top 10 (incl. ties) (+900)
• To play in final group in final round (+4000)

Tiger Woods Specials - Round 1 (most bet by tickets)

• Bogey Free (+2800)
• To shoot 72 or lower (+115)
• To hit the fairway with opening tee shot (-150)
• To birdie any par 3 hole (-135)
• To make an eagle (+900)

What is a Masters Sleeper Pick?

A sleeper pick for the Masters is a golfer who is considered unlikely to win the tournament but has the potential to surprise everyone and perform well. Here are a few factors to consider when choosing a sleeper pick:

• Recent good performance: Look for golfers who have been playing well leading up to the Masters, even if they haven't won any recent tournaments.
• History at Augusta National: Some golfers just seem to fit Augusta's unique layout. Look for players who have consistently performed well at the Masters in the past.
• Underrated skills: Maybe a golfer is known for their long drives but has been improving their short game. An under-the-radar strength could be the key to success at Augusta.

What are the Most Popular Ways to Bet on Golf

There are a couple of main categories for popular golf bets, focusing on the winner and other tournament aspects. Here are some of the most common ways to wager on golf:

• Tournament Winner: This is the most straightforward bet, picking the golfer you believe will win the entire competition. Favorites will have lower odds (e.g., +800), while longshots offer potentially bigger payouts (e.g., +5000).
• Head-to-Head Matchups: Here, you choose which golfer will perform better between two specific players, either for the entire tournament or a single round.
• Top Finishes: This lets you wager on a golfer finishing within a certain range, like Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20. It offers a good balance between risk and reward compared to picking the outright winner.
• Make/Miss Cut: A simple bet on whether a golfer will qualify for the weekend rounds (make the cut) or not (miss the cut).
• Prop Bets: These are wagers on various statistics or events during the tournament, like who will have the lowest score on a particular hole, or which nationality will have the most players in the top 10.

Who has Won the Most Masters Tournaments?

The golfer with the most Masters Tournament wins is Jack Nicklaus. Nicklaus, nicknamed "The Golden Bear", has won the prestigious tournament an impressive six times throughout his career. His wins spanned over two decades, with his first victory in 1963 and his last in 1986.

Who is the Biggest Underdog to Ever Win the Masters?

The biggest underdog to ever win the Masters Tournament, based on pre-tournament betting odds, is Trevor Immelman in 2008.

Immelman, a South African golfer, entered the tournament with odds as high as 150/1 (or +15000). This means a $100 bet on him to win would have paid out a whopping $15,000.

2024 Masters Betting Strategy

Here's a betting strategy for the Masters that combines different approaches to find a balance between risk and reward:

1. Research and Pick a Top Contender:

• Review recent form: Focus on golfers who have been playing well leading up to the Masters, particularly those with wins or strong finishes in tournaments on similar courses.
• Consider Masters history: Look for golfers who have performed well at Augusta National before. Augusta's unique layout favors certain skillsets, so past success is a good indicator.
• Check World Rankings: While not a guarantee, winners tend to be among the top golfers in the world. Look at the top 20-25 ranked golfers for potential contenders.

2. Combine with a Top 10 or Top 20 Finish Bet:

• Instead of picking the outright winner (which can be risky), choose a top contender and place a bet on them finishing in the Top 10 or Top 20.
• This offers a higher chance of winning compared to picking the winner, with a decent payout considering the strong competition.

3. Add a Prop Bet for Fun (Optional):

• Prop bets can add some excitement to your viewing experience.
• Choose a prop bet that aligns with your chosen contender's strengths. For example, if your pick is a long driver, consider a prop bet on "most birdies on a par 5."
• Remember, prop bets are generally high-risk, high-reward, so wager a smaller amount for fun.

The Best Sportsbooks to Bet the Masters

• DraftKings: A popular app with a wide variety of markets and props for golf, including live betting options during the Masters.
• FanDuel: Another popular app with extensive Masters coverage, offering competitive odds and various golf-specific wagers.
• BetMGM: A reliable platform with a good selection of Masters markets and props, including hole-in-one bets and live betting options.
• Caesars: Offers a strong welcome bonus with first-bet insurance and a wide range of Masters bets, including odds boosts and a rewarding loyalty program for frequent bettors.