2023 U.S. Open Best Bets & Sleeper Picks
Target these golfers for this week’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club
Dan Karpuc - Jun 18, 2023, 6:23am EDT
U.S. Open Betting Picks For Final Round
Rickie Fowler (+250, BetMGM)
Is tied for the lead with Wyndham Clark at -10 and missed an easy par putt on hole 18 in the third round that would have given him the solo lead after 54 holes. Despite that miss on 18, Fowler has been putting the ball exceptionally well in this tournament and actually led the field in SG: Putting on Saturday. There’s no doubt that the gallery and everyone at home will be cheering for Fowler, who has been searching and searching for his first Major win, and it seems as though he’s ready for the moment. If you’re a believer in his game (like I am) and think he’s ready to put the pressure behind him, he’s a solid option to win the event. After the round, he told reporters, “We have a chance tomorrow… I’m not scared to fail. I’ve dealt with that. We’re just going to go have fun, continue to try to execute, leave it all out there, see where we stand on 18.” Is this a “safe” bet? Not at all, as you’ll read in a second. But, it still has some solid value at +250.
Scottie Scheffler (+450, BetMGM)
If you’re looking for some more upside, Scheffler is the best bet on the board. He shot two strokes under par in the third round and now sits three back (-7) from Fowler and Clark, who share the lead at -10. He will be paired with Rory McIlroy right in front of Fowler and Clark and is no stranger to the big moments, but it’s also important to note that he’s only won a single Major (2022 Masters). As someone who racked up many victories over the last few seasons, that might be surprising to some. Nonetheless, his all-around game sets him up for a huge final round. Scheffler finished Moving Day with an eagle on 17 and a birdie on 18, so there’s nobody who will enter the final round with more confidence. To put that into context, he recorded two strokes on the 515-yard 17th and then a three on the 491-yard 18th before heading to the clubhouse! This is by far my favorite bet at +450.
Xander Schauffele (+3300, BetMGM)
Schauffele finished three over par in the third round but most of that damage came on the first hole when he had a hard time with a bunker (took him three shots to escape). He’s five strokes back (-5), but is someone with the consistency in Majors that can’t be ignored. Some guys up top on the leaderboard would need to falter and Schauffele would need to play mistake-free golf, but we’ve seen him put together some brilliant rounds in Majors before. This is just going to be a sprinkle for me at +3300, but I do like the price quite a bit.
U.S. Open Betting Picks For Final Round
Rickie Fowler (+250, BetMGM)
Is tied for the lead with Wyndham Clark at -10 and missed an easy par putt on hole 18 in the third round that would have given him the solo lead after 54 holes. Despite that miss on 18, Fowler has been putting the ball exceptionally well in this tournament and actually led the field in SG: Putting on Saturday. There’s no doubt that the gallery and everyone at home will be cheering for Fowler, who has been searching and searching for his first Major win, and it seems as though he’s ready for the moment. If you’re a believer in his game (like I am) and think he’s ready to put the pressure behind him, he’s a solid option to win the event. After the round, he told reporters, “We have a chance tomorrow… I’m not scared to fail. I’ve dealt with that. We’re just going to go have fun, continue to try to execute, leave it all out there, see where we stand on 18.” Is this a “safe” bet? Not at all, as you’ll read in a second. But, it still has some solid value at +250.
Scottie Scheffler (+450, BetMGM)
If you’re looking for some more upside, Scheffler is the best bet on the board. He shot two strokes under par in the third round and now sits three back (-7) from Fowler and Clark, who share the lead at -10. He will be paired with Rory McIlroy right in front of Fowler and Clark and is no stranger to the big moments, but it’s also important to note that he’s only won a single Major (2022 Masters). As someone who racked up many victories over the last few seasons, that might be surprising to some. Nonetheless, his all-around game sets him up for a huge final round. Scheffler finished Moving Day with an eagle on 17 and a birdie on 18, so there’s nobody who will enter the final round with more confidence. To put that into context, he recorded two strokes on the 515-yard 17th and then a three on the 491-yard 18th before heading to the clubhouse! This is by far my favorite bet at +450.
Xander Schauffele (+3300, BetMGM)
Schauffele finished three over par in the third round but most of that damage came on the first hole when he had a hard time with a bunker (took him three shots to escape). He’s five strokes back (-5), but is someone with the consistency in Majors that can’t be ignored. Some guys up top on the leaderboard would need to falter and Schauffele would need to play mistake-free golf, but we’ve seen him put together some brilliant rounds in Majors before. This is just going to be a sprinkle for me at +3300, but I do like the price quite a bit.
U.S. Open Betting Picks (Before The Event Started)
Los Angeles Country Club will host the 2023 U.S. Open as 156 golfers battle it out for their share of the $17.5-million purse. The winner will take home $3.15 million. Below, you’ll see our model’s best bets and sleeper picks for the U.S. Open.
BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
U.S. Open Best Bets & Sleeper Picks
Jon Rahm To Win (+1100, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL’s PGA Model is giving Rahm +482 odds to win this event, thus making his +1100 odds at FanDuel a solid value. Rahm is simply one of the best players on the planet right now. He won the 2023 Masters, is leading in the FedExCup standings and is ranked second in the world on OWGR. He didn't have his best stuff at the PGA Championship in his last major event, finishing tied for 50th at +7, but he's bound to come back with a vengeance. He just finished tied for 16th at the Memorial Tournament in his last event. He already has four wins this year alone, to go along with eight top-10 finishes.
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Rory McIlroy Top 5 Finish (+310, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Our model is giving McIlroy +150 odds to finish in the top five, wildly different odds than the +310 odds you can find at FanDuel. He's currently ninth in the FedExCup championship race right now and ranked third overall in the world via OWGR. He's played in 11 events so far this season and has one win under his belt at the CJ CUP. However, he also was the runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and has four top-10 finishes. He's made the cut in nine of his 11 events, and most recently came in tied for ninth at the RBC Canadian Open with a score of 12-under.
Tony Finau Top 10 Finish (+320, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL is giving Finau +135 odds to finish in the top 10, which makes his +320 odds at FanDuel a bargain. Quietly, he's been having a great 2023 season so far and is fifth in the FedExCup standings right now. Finau is ranked 12th in the world right now via OWGR. He's played in 16 events so far this season and has already notched two wins as well. Finau has four top-10 finishes and 11 top-25 finishes in his 16 events. In his last event, he failed to make the cut in the Charles Schwab Challenge, which was just his second missed cut all season.
Justin Thomas Top 20 Finish (+160, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The model is giving Thomas -163 odds to finish in the Top 20 and you can get valuable +160 odds over at FanDuel. He's having easily the worst season of his career right now, sitting at 78th in the FedExCup rankings, and is now 16th on the OWGR. He hasn't been able to win an event this season and doesn't have any runner-up finishes, but he does own two top-10 placements. Out of his 13 events played, he has eight top-25 finishes as well. In his last event at the Memorial Tournament, he failed to make the cut for just the second time this season.
Sam Burns Top 40 Finish (+100, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL is giving Burns -163 odds to finish in the Top 40 and you can capitalize +100 odds at FanDuel. He's currently ranked 14th in the FedEx Cup standings, and 15th in the world via OWGR. Burns took home a win this season at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event, but he doesn't have a runner-up placement. Burns has five top-10 finishes and nine top-25 finishes as well this season, so he is usually in contention quite a bit. In his last event at the RBC Canadian Open, however, he failed to make the cut.
