2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets

TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee will host the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. A field of 121 of the 125 players who qualified for this event will golf and then be trimmed down to just 70 at the end of the day on Sunday. Only those 70 will move on to next week’s BMW Championship. Therefore, the stakes are very high. 

This event has a record purse of $15 million, with a cool $2.7 million going to the winner. Tony Finau happens to be the defending champion and he’s coming off the best stretch of golf in his entire career: two consecutive victories at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Championship. There’s no one hotter than him right now. Others like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele highlight the star-studded field for what should be a lot of quality golf on this Par-70, 7,243-yard course. 

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Two weeks ago, we nailed Tony Finau to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic (+1400, BetMGM) and last week, we accurately projected Russell Henley to finish in the Top 5 (+550, FanDuel) and Tyrrell Hatton to finish in the Top 10 (+320, Caesars) at the Wyndham Championship! Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable). 

Scroll down to see this week’s best bets.

Justin Thomas To Win (+2000, PointsBet)

BetQL Projection: +463 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The tight fairways that are featured on this course reward golfers that are accurate off the tee and these greens are the fourth-smallest on the PGA Tour. Therefore, our model is targeting perhaps the best all-around golfer in the world: Justin Thomas. JT won on this course in 2020 with a -13 score and beat the second-place finisher by three strokes. Course history: check.

With a PGA Championship victory under his belt, Thomas has also been in the hunt quite a few more times, as indicated by his eight other Top 10 finishes. He ranks 1st on Tour in Scoring Average (Actual), 2nd in Birdie Average, 3rd in SG: Tee-To-Green, 3rd in Putting Average and 5th in SG: Approach The Green. When all parts of his game are clicking, he can win any tournament, as we’ve seen in the past. BetQL is giving him +463 odds to win, making the +2000 odds you can get on PointsBet a massive bargain and five-star value.

Jon Rahm Top 5 Finish (+400, BetMGM)

BetQL Projection: +115 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

After some uncharacteristically-human results lately, Jon Rahm is in search of a big week in Tennessee. He posted a 62 in the first round here back in 2019 en route to a 7th-place finish and, like Thomas, has the all-around game that makes him grade out well in the model this week. The Spaniard ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee, which is perhaps the most important stat this week based on the course layout and historical performance, 1st in Total Driving, 2nd in Greens In Regulation Percentage and 6th in SG: Tee-To-Green. While he’s struggled with his putter, this course has been favorable to players once they reach the green, so he might have an easier time than usual with his lone weak spot this week. BetQL is giving him +115 odds to finish in the Top 5, thus making his +400 odds on BetMGM a nice value.

Patrick Cantlay Top 10 Finish (+140, Caesars)

BetQL Projection: -112 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We might as well rename him Patrick “Top 10” Cantlay. He has a Tour-best ten different Top 10 finishes this season and BetQL is projecting him to record another one this week as his -112 odds indicate. Since The Memorial, he’s finished T3, T14, T13, T4, T8 and T2 finishes and is one of the most consistent golfers in the world once again this season. Cantlay ranks 4th on Tour in Birdie Average, 5th in Scoring Average, 6th in Going For The Green (my favorite stat), 9th in SG: Total, 9th in SG: Putting and has no real limitations that would prevent him from contending once again on this course. 

Collin Morikawa Top 20 Finish (+148, BetRivers)

BetQL Projection: -184 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Let’s not sugarcoat this: Morikawa is in terrible form right now. With missed cuts in three of his last four PGA Tour events, he simply has not performed like the elite golfer he is. While he does have seven Top 10 finishes this season, five of them came in consecutive events to start the season, thus casting some doubt on him this week. However, he’s shown flashes and glimpses of his potential all year and BetQL is projecting him to finish in the Top 20 this week, as the -184 odds above indicate. You can get plus money on this outcome anywhere which is a great value for a guy who ranks 4th on Tour in SG: Approach The Green, 6th in Fairway Proximity, 7th in Proximity To Hole and 14th in Scoring Average. A breakout is coming. 

Webb Simpson Top 30 Finish (+185, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: -191 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Talk about course fit. Over his last three years, Simpson finished T15, T12 and T2 on this course. That included five different rounds of 66 or better, including two fourth rounds of 64 strokes. He finished 3rd here in 2014 and is the only player in the entire field with three or more T15 finishes at this course. Simpson ranks 7th on Tour in Total Driving Efficiency, 20th in Putting Average and clearly loves this course. The model is giving him -191 odds to finish in the Top 30 and you can capitalize on FanDuel’s +185 odds for him to accomplish that outcome.

Shane Lowry Top 40 Finish (-155, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: -308 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While DraftKings is projecting Shane Lowry to finish in the Top 40, as his -155 odds indicate, BetQL still views this as undervalued and is giving him -308 odds. He finished 6th here in 2020, 23rd last year and has been very consistent. Over his last 11 rounds at this course, he hasn’t posted any score worse than 70. With a 2nd place finish and two different T3 finishes this season, Lowry is someone with the proven track record of not only making the cut on this course, but also even making things interesting on Sunday.