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Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas will host the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge as 120 golfers battle it out for their share of the $8.7 purse. The winner will take home $1.566 million. Below, you’ll see our model’s best bets and sleeper picks for this week’s PGA Tour event.
BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Scottie Scheffler To Win (+450, Bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL’s PGA Model is giving Scheffler +246 odds to win this event, thus making his +450 odds at Bet365 a solid value. He held a lead in the final round of last year’s event but faltered down the stretch and ended up falling in a playoff. Ranking No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking, Scheffler has been dominant this season with two wins under his belt as part of seven Top 5 finishes and 10 Top 10 finishes. He’s made the cut in every event and these have been his finishing positions: T45, T3, T9, 2, T7, T11, 1, T12, T4, 1, T10, T11, T5, T2. That’s simply insane and he’s the rightful favorite to win. Scheffler ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Off The Tee, 1st in SG: Tee-To-Green, 1st in SG: Total, 1st in GIR %, 1st in Scoring Average, 2nd in SG: Approach The Green, 2nd in Total Driving and 5th in Birdie Average.
Collin Morikawa Top 5 Finish (+400, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Our model is giving Morikawa -102 odds to finish in the Top 5, wildly different odds than the +400 odds you can find at BetRivers. Back in 2020, he nearly won this event when he took the Tour by storm, but lost in a playoff. Coming off a T26 at the PGA Championship last week, Morikawa isn’t in elite form, especially having missed the cut in the two events right before that. However, he has four Top 10 finishes and two Top 5 finishes this season and is popping in the model this week. Morikawa ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Approach To Green, 6th in Driving Accuracy and 7th in GIR % this season. Getting onto Colonial’s small greens in regulation will be of paramount importance this week and Morikawa’s ability to do just that while also avoiding issues around the tree-lined fairways with accurate drives should give him a great shot to contend.
Max Homa Top 10 Finish (+230, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL is giving Homa +104 odds to finish in the Top 10 which make his +230 odds at DraftKings a bargain. He posted a career-event-best T23 last year and has finished in the Top 10 in five of his last 11 overall tournaments, including a win at the Farmers Insurance Open and a runner-up finish at The Genesis Invitational. Homa ranks 2nd on Tour in Par 3 Scoring Average, 4th in Putting Average, 5th in SG: Putting, 6th in Birdie Average, 8th in SG: Total and 10th in Par 4 Scoring Average. There are 12 Par 4’s featured on this course and while Homa hasn’t quite been as consistent as we’d like week over week, his advanced stats suggest that this course should suit him well.
Maverick McNealy Top 20 Finish (+333, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The model is giving McNealy +118 odds to finish in the Top 20 and you can get valuable +333 odds over at BetMGM. He’s struggled lately and is coming off two consecutive missed cuts, but has five Top 20 finishes to his name so far this season. McNealy ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Putting, 2nd in One-Putt % and 16th in Scrambling. Historically, elite putters have performed very well at this event and McNealy very clearly enjoys rolling on Bentgrass greens, the same surface that will be featured this week.
Billy Horschel Top 40 Finish (+138, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetQL is giving Horschel -137 odds to finish in the Top 40 and you can capitalize +138 odds at BetRivers. He just missed the cut at the PGA Championship but posted a T11 finish at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans right before that. That was one of his five Top 40 finishes this season. Horschel ranks 1st on Tour in Approaches From 100-125 Yards, and 2nd in Approaches From 200-225 Yards. That ability to efficiently and effectively hit those accurate approach shots should come in handy this week.