2022 BMW Championship Best Bets
PGA Model picks for the next FedExCup event
Dan Karpuc - Aug 16, 2022, 11:54pm EDT
The FedExCup Playoffs continues on to Wilmington Country Club, the host of the 2022 BMW Championship. Not only will a $15M purse be up for grabs, but the field of 70 will be whittled down to just 30 for the conclusion of the season-ending TOUR Championship in Atlanta. This Par-71, 7,534-yard course features a very rare Par 5-3-5-3 group on holes 12, 13, 14 and 15 and elite ball strikers will be rewarded more than usual as a whole. It’s also worth mentioning that there is no cut this week, so every golfer is guaranteed to play four rounds.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Here’s a list of our recent winners, starting with last week:
If you blindly bet $100 on all of our model’s best bets over the past three weeks, you’d be up $1,018 right now!
Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
The FedExCup Playoffs continues on to Wilmington Country Club, the host of the 2022 BMW Championship. Not only will a $15M purse be up for grabs, but the field of 70 will be whittled down to just 30 for the conclusion of the season-ending TOUR Championship in Atlanta. This Par-71, 7,534-yard course features a very rare Par 5-3-5-3 group on holes 12, 13, 14 and 15 and elite ball strikers will be rewarded more than usual as a whole. It’s also worth mentioning that there is no cut this week, so every golfer is guaranteed to play four rounds.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Here’s a list of our recent winners, starting with last week:
If you blindly bet $100 on all of our model’s best bets over the past three weeks, you’d be up $1,018 right now!
Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Justin Thomas To Win (+1600, BetMGM)
BetQL Projection: +425 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Thomas is coming off a T13 at TPC Southwind last week and if it wasn’t for a 71 in the third round, he would have been in contention to win, as he posted a 67 and 67 in the first two rounds and a 66 in the final round. He will be able to show off his elite ball-striking this week in Delaware. Thomas ranks 1st on Tour in Scoring Average (Actual), 2nd in Birdie Average, 3rd in SG: Total, 3rd in SG: Tee-To-Green, 3rd in Putting Average, 5th in SG: Approach The Green, 5th in One-Putt Percentage, 6th in Total Driving Efficiency and 15th in SG: Around-The-Green, which makes up an astounding, well-rounded cumulative statistical profile. BetQL is giving him the best chance to win this week at +425, which makes Thomas a massive value at +1600 on BetMGM. He currently ranks 10th in the FedExCup standings.
Rory McIlroy Top 5 Finish (+250, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: -136 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
After a surprising missed cut at last week’s event, McIlroy grades out as a fantastic bounce-back option this week. As another elite ball-striker, he ranks 2nd in SG: Total, 2nd in Driving Distance, 5th in SG: Tee-To-Green 5th in SG: Off-The-Tee, 5th in Scoring Average (Actual), 5th in Birdie Average and 11th in SG: Putting. He’s also the most aggressive player on Tour with his irons, as evidenced by the fact that he ranks 1st in Going For The Green. All of those factors make him an excellent pick from the model. The +250 odds of him finishing in the top five that you can find at DraftKings are a nice value since BetQL is projecting that outcome at -136. He currently ranks 9th in the FedExCup standings.
Xander Schauffele Top 10 Finish (+185, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: -145 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Schauffele finished a disappointing T57 last week, but, like McIlroy, is in a solid bounce-back spot this week. He ranks 4th on Tour in Scoring Average (Actual), 6th on Tour in Putting Average, 7th in Birdie Average and 8th in SG: Total. Since this course features some tricky bunkers, Schauffele’s ability to navigate them will give him an edge over the field if he gets in trouble. He ranks 1st on Tour in Sand Save Percentage and 3rd in Proximity To Hole From Sand. BetQL is giving Schauffele -145 odds to finish in the Top 10, which makes the +185 odds you can find on FanDuel a nice bargain. He currently ranks 6th in the FedExCup standings.
Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 Finish (+175, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: -181 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even though he withdrew with a neck injury before taking the course last week, Matsuyama checks a lot of boxes this week. He ranks 6th on Tour in SG: Approach The Green, 6th in Fairway Proximity, 9th in Going For The Green, 13th in Birdie Average, 15th in SG: Tee-To-Green, 18th in Scoring Average (Actual) and 20th in Greens In Regulation Percentage. BetQL is projecting him to finish in the Top 20 (with -181 odds), which makes his +175 DraftKings odds a solid value. He currently ranks 15th in the FedExCup standings.
Keegan Bradley Top 40 Finish (-200, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: -355 ⭐⭐⭐
Despite shooting one-under in the first two rounds last week, Bradley missed the cut, but there are a number of reasons to like him to finish in the Top 40 this week. BetQL is giving him -355 odds to do so, he ranks 13th on Tour in 3-Putt Avoidance, 15th in Total Driving Efficiency, 18th in SG: Tee-To-Green, 22nd in SG: Approach The Green and 26th in SG: Off-The-Tee. He currently ranks 45th in the FedExCup standings (he was 34th last week), so will need a huge performance to vault up into the Top 30.
