BetMGM: 2024 Players Championship Predictions, Best Bets & Sleepers
BetMGM's Ryan Hannable reveals his Players Championship best bets & sleeper picks!
The event known as golf’s fifth major – the Players Championship – is here.
All of the PGA Tour’s best players will be at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach. Fla., March 14-17.
This is arguably Pete Dye’s best-designed course, with water hazards coming into play on 17 holes. Because of this, some big scores can be made easily so the leaderboards can get incredibly volatile.
With that being said, birdies will be made, as the winning score the last five years has been 13-under of better.
Given the number of water hazards and tricky green-side bunkers, this is a week where it’s all ball striking, as well as short game, and less about distance.
It is also an unpredictable event in terms of carrying over success year-to-year. For instance, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have each won the event within the last five years, but do not have another finish inside the top 30 over that span.
Additionally, just five players have multiple top 10 finishes over the last five years – Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley and Brian Harman.
I will be looking at key metrics this week when building out my card, leaning on Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on short courses and Birdies or Better Gained.
Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +550.
Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week.
*All odds as of March 12.
The event known as golf’s fifth major – the Players Championship – is here.
All of the PGA Tour’s best players will be at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach. Fla., March 14-17.
This is arguably Pete Dye’s best-designed course, with water hazards coming into play on 17 holes. Because of this, some big scores can be made easily so the leaderboards can get incredibly volatile.
With that being said, birdies will be made, as the winning score the last five years has been 13-under of better.
Given the number of water hazards and tricky green-side bunkers, this is a week where it’s all ball striking, as well as short game, and less about distance.
It is also an unpredictable event in terms of carrying over success year-to-year. For instance, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have each won the event within the last five years, but do not have another finish inside the top 30 over that span.
Additionally, just five players have multiple top 10 finishes over the last five years – Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley and Brian Harman.
I will be looking at key metrics this week when building out my card, leaning on Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on short courses and Birdies or Better Gained.
Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +550.
Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week.
*All odds as of March 12.
Players Championship Prediction
Scheffler is expected to win the Players Championship with a 15.38% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 6.67%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Players Championship Best Bets
Scottie Scheffler +550 Odds to Win
It’s really hard not to expect Scheffler to win this week as not only is he the defending champion, but he’s coming off winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational by five shots. Scheffler’s putter was exceptional, and if he putts like he did last week, it’s hard to imagine anyone being able to beat him.
Justin Thomas +2200 Odds to Win
Thomas’ ball striking will always have him as a favorite at TPC Sawgrass, and he’s had some solid showings at the event. On top of a win in 2022, he has three total top 11 finishes. Thomas is coming off a T-12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Players Championship Sleeper Picks
Brian Harman +6600 Odds to Win
Harman typically plays his best on the toughest courses and has had some solid past success here, finishing inside the top 10 in 2019 and 2021. He finished T-12 at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Tom Hoge +6600 Odds to Win
Hoge shot a course record 62 last year in the third round on the way to a T-3 finish. He also enters the week in fine form, logging two top 10s and five top 25s in nine events so far this season.
Players Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions
- Will Zalatoris Outright Win +2500
- Max Homa Outright Win +2800
- Tony Finau Outright Win +5000
- Jordan Spieth Top-20 Finish +150
- Brian Harman Top-20 Finish +240
- Doug Ghim Top-40 Finish +125
This week, I relied on my Fantasy National model more so than course history.
Zalatoris didn’t rank as high as the others, but is playing exceptionally well of late and has improved his putting in a big way. Meanwhile, Homa comes in at No. 12 and Finau No. 17. Both players have solid value.
When it came to props, I tried to find the best value. Spieth and Harman are two of the top players in the world and should have success against this field at a tough course. Lastly, Ghim was No. 2 in my model and has fared well at TPC Sawgrass in the past.
Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Doug Ghim
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Justin Thomas
- Collin Morikawa
- Tom Hoge
- Taylor Pendrith
- Alex Norén
- Shane Lowry
Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”
