Fortinet Championship 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

BetMGM's predictions, best bets, and sleeper picks for the Fortinet Championship from Napa, CA

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After a few weeks off following the Tour Championship, the PGA Tour is back with the fall portion of its schedule.

It gets underway with the Fortinet Championship from the Silverado Resort in Napa, CA, Sept. 14-17.

Although it’s not a signature event, there are some solid names in the field, including two-time defending champion Max Homa and Justin Thomas. These two are also set to play in the Ryder Cup later this month.

The Silverado Resort has hosted this PGA Tour event for 17 straight years, although it was the Safeway Open until 2021. 

It is a 7,123-yard par-72 where longer hitters, as well as shorter, straighter hitters, have won. Historically, the winning score has been between 15 and 19-under. The metrics I will be focusing on this week will be the top ball strikers, the ability to make birdies on easier courses and the best putters on poa greens.

Homa has the best odds to win going into the week at +750. Below are some players to target, followed by my betting card for the week.

BetMGM Betting Insights: Fortinet Championship Tournament Winner

 Line Movement (opening, current)

  • Justin Thomas +1400, +1600
  • Sahith Theegala +2000, +1600
  • Cam Davis +2500, +2000
  • Akshay Bhatia +5500, +4500

 Highest Ticket%

  • Justin Thomas 10.9%
  • Max Homa 10.1%
  • Sahith Theegala 9.1%

 Highest Handle%

  • Max Homa 24.8%
  • Sahith Theegala 15.5%
  • Cam Davis 8.4%

 Biggest Liabilities

  • Sahith Theegala
  • Max Homa
  • Akshay Bhatia

Fortinet Championship Predictions 

Max Homa is expected to win the Fortinet Championship with a 11.76% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Justin Thomas is next at 6.67%, while Sahith Theegala follows at 5.26%.

Fortinet Championship Best Bets

Max Homa +750 Odds to Win

Homa is not only the highest-ranked player in the field, but he’s also the two-time defending champion. He’s looking to become the first golfer since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic in 2009-11 to win the same PGA Tour event three years in a row.


Brendon Todd +3500 Odds to Win

Todd is one of the straightest drivers on the PGA Tour, and that will help him a great deal this week. After matching 71s in the first and second rounds last year, he posted two 68s over the weekend to finish T-9.

Fortinet Championship Sleepers

Akshay Bhatia +4500 Odds to Win

The 21-year-old won for the first time on the PGA Tour last year at the Barracuda Championship, which is also an event where plenty of birdies are needed to win. With full status now on Tour, he can play with more freedom, which could be a good thing this week. 

Chez Reavie +6000 Odds to Win

Reavie is very similar to Todd in he’s one of the straightest hitters off the tee on the PGA Tour. Given his age and length off the tee, he has a tough time contending at some events, but this isn’t one of them. The 41-year-old could surprise some people this week.

Fortinet Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions

  • Brendon Todd Outright Win +3500
  • Sahith Theegala Top-20 Finish +100

I’m keeping my card very short this week since it’s the fall, but I like Todd, given his history at the event and his ability to keep the ball in the fairway. And Theegala in his home state, plus money to finish inside the top 20, feels like a steal.

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Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”