The 2022 Barbasol Championship is the PGA Tour’s alternate event to The Open Championship overseas and will be played at Keene Trace Golf Club in Kentucky once again. Boasting four Par-5’s, 10 Par-4’s and four Par 3’s, this course is far from challenging, as last year’s leaderboard proved. Seamus Power won in a playoff last July with a -21 final score, but 25 different golfers finished -15 or better. Therefore, even in the watered-down field, expect some low numbers and solid rounds this week. The purse is up to $3.7 million this year, up from $3.5 million last summer, and the model identified a number of golfers who grade out well on this course.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Last week, we nailed Maverick McNealy’s Top 10 Finish (+333, BetMGM) and Ryan Moore’s Top 40 Finish (+185, FanDuel) at the John Deere Classic. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Josh Teater To Win (+8000, BetMGM)
BetQL Rating & Projection: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (+1349)
Teater finished with a final score of -17 (T15) at this event last year, which is important to know. As someone who was born and raised in Kentucky and also attended Morehead State University in Kentucky, Teater is well-versed with the design and layout of this course and it showed in 2021. Speaking to reporters in advance of the tournament, Teater spoke about the importance of playing in front of a hometown crowd and inspiring youth golfers from Lexington, KY, where he currently resides. After crunching his data, our model is giving him a +1349 chance to win this event, a gigantic difference from the +8000 odds you can find from our friends at BetMGM. Oh, and he also had a T6 finish here in 2019.
Kevin Streelman Top 5 Finish (+600, DraftKings)
BetQL Rating & Projection: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (+340)
Streelman is one of the familiar names playing this event and ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 24th in Total Driving, 27th in Total Driving Efficiency, 48th in Proximity To Hole, 32nd in Scrambling, 22nd in Three-Putt Avoidance and 53rd in SG: Off-The-Tee. In this field, that’s more than enough to pull the trigger on him. BetQL is giving him +340 odds to finish in the Top 5, a solid four-star value when compared to the +600 odds you can find at DraftKings. He heads into this event after a T25 and T41.
Ryan Moore Top 10 Finish (+700, FanDuel)
BetQL Rating & Projection: ⭐⭐⭐⭐(+214)
We nailed Moore’s Top 40 projection (-146 in the model, +185 at FanDuel) at the John Deere Classic last week and we’re running it back, this time targeting a Top 10 finish for the veteran. Moore’s confidence should be at a solid spot right now, following five consecutive made cuts in PGA Tour events, including a T35 at the RBC Canadian Open and T24 last week. The model is giving him +214 odds to finish in the Top 10 this week, a huge value when compared to the +700 odds you can grab on FanDuel.
Cameron Percy Top 20 Finish (+500, DraftKings)
BetQL Rating & Projection: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (-108)
48-year-old veteran Cameron Percy stands out as a massive value in our model this week, with -108 odds to finish in the Top 20 compared to the +500 odds he has on DraftKings. To put that into perspective, the Aussie has a 51.82% implied probability to finish in the Top 20 according to BetQL, but he has just a 16.67% implied probability at the sportsbook. That’s a massive gap and one that we suggest you capitalize on this week.
Brian Stuard Top 40 Finish (+155, FanDuel)
BetQL Rating & Projection: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (-326)
Speaking of implied probabilities, we might as well touch on Stuard’s. FanDuel is giving him +155 odds, a 39.22% implied probability, to finish in the Top 40, while BetQL is giving him -326 odds, a 76.53% implied probability, to accomplish that feat. He ranks 2nd on Tour in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 65th in SG: Around-The-Green, which further supports the pick.