En route to determining the top 125 qualifiers for the FedExCup Playoffs, the 3M Open is the first of three straight 156-golfer fields. TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota will host this event and a $7.5 million purse will be on the line. Before getting into this week’s deep sleeper picks, here’s how last week’s picks fared at the British Open (for full transparency):
As you can see, there were some close calls and four of the six deep sleepers made the cut, but none of the picks actually won. Let’s identify the best deep sleeper values at the 3M Open and hope for some better results this week.
Best Bet: +550 Top 10 Finish, DraftKings
Distance off the tee is very important at TPC Twin Cities, as Cameron Champ lived up to his last name and proved last year when he won this event with a four-round -15 score. Champ ranks 1st in Driving Distance (320.2) on the PGA Tour this season and also ranks 9th on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee. The length he accomplishes off the tee allows him to be aggressive on approach shots, which will come in handy due to the fact that there are three Par-5s and some long Par-4s to navigate. In fact, he ranks 26th in Going For The Green.
Five consecutive missed PGA Tour cuts have driven his odds all the way to 66/1 to win and he’s in terrible form, but it’s difficult not to like how his strengths fit into what matters at this course. It’s also worth noting that he gained 8.48 strokes with his putter and had the best performance in the entire field on the greens last year, so if he can come anywhere close to that this week, he could find himself in a relevant spot on Sunday.
Best Bet: +300 Top 20 Finish, DraftKings
Speaking of past winners, Michael Thompson won this event back in 2020 with a -19 score, beating the 2nd place finisher by two strokes and nine other golfers by three strokes. He recorded a T39 here in 2021 and ranks 5th on Tour in Par 3 Birdie Or Better Leaders, 22nd in Overall Putting Average, and 25th in One-Putt Percentage. The greens at this course are very easy to hit, so if Thompson can get on the putting surface repeatedly, I love his chances to go low based on how hot that part of his game has been this season.
He knows that his strengths are with that club, too. “I played really solid golf. I think I only had three bogeys all week. Just really stuck to my game, played Michael Thompson golf, allowed my putter to speak volumes, I think,” he told The Minnesota Daily after his 2019 victory. He should have ample opportunities to play his personal brand of golf again this week.
Best Bet: +450 Top 40 Finish, FanDuel
Wesley Bryan ranks 29th on Tour in SG: Approach-The-Green and his deficiencies off the tee shouldn’t matter due to the generous landing areas. He also ranks 34th in Going For The Green - Birdie Or Better, where he’s converted a birdie or better on 39 of 62 qualifying attempts. Three Par 5s and long Par 4s should create the opportunity for Bryan to be aggressive this week, where he can capitalize with his putter. He ranks 6th on Tour in Overall Putting Average and 7th in One-Putt Percentage.
I’m going to definitely sprinkle some on his 500/1 odds to win and love that you can get +450 odds on him to finish in the Top 40 right now. This could be his breakout tournament and if he wins, remember you heard it here first!
Stay tuned for our model’s best bets for this event!