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The Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first PGA event in 2023 and features a limited field of just 39 pros. In order to get an invite, golfers had to either win a tournament in 2022 or qualify for the 2022 Tour Championship.
Since Rory McIlroy is the only qualified golfer to deny the invite, this field features the best players on Tour, who will battle it out for the $15 million purse. Expect some low scores at the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii. With warm, perfect conditions, this course historically plays easy and this year shouldn’t be an exception. Keep in mind that last year’s winner Cameron Smith won with a ridiculous final score of -34.
BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
BetQL Projection: +634 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cantlay has finished 4th, 13th and 4th in the last three years at this event and the all-around nature of his game makes him a stellar option since the winner will have to go very low, as noted above. Although he hasn’t played since October, his 2nd-place finish at the Shriners Children’s Open highlighted how elite he is; he dominated with his putter and off the tee in his four rounds with a low of 60 in the third. With eight Tour victories under his belt, our model is listing him as the best bet to get 2023 started with his ninth.
BetMGM is listing Cantlay to win at +1000 which is a discount since our model has him at +634. Bet this risk-free up to $1,000 using our exclusive offer below right now!
BetQL Projection: +105 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last year, Rahm finished second at this event with a final score of -33 and his worst finish in five appearances is 10th. He also recorded another second-place finish here, too. Per Yahoo Sports, Rahm has been the top performer on coastal courses over the last two years and this course is right on the coast. In fact, he grades out nearly half a shot better per round than the field in coastal course performance in that span.
FanDuel is giving Rahm +145 odds to finish in the Top 5 this week while our model is giving him +105 odds. Take advantage of the value with a no-sweat bet up to $1,000 now, meaning that you can bet this up at any amount up to $1,000 and if you lose, you get your money back in free bets. Sign up at FanDuel now!
BetQL Projection: -186 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is Zalatoris’ first event since a back injury he suffered in August, but he’s back at full strength. This is a situation that you should exploit, per our model, and the data suggests that sportsbooks mispriced him.
Our model is giving Zalatoris -186 odds to record a Top 10 finish, but DraftKings is listing him at +180. Don’t ignore all the value; bet this now after using our exclusive DraftKings welcome offer below first!
BetQL Projection: -524 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
After winning his first PGA Tour event at the RSM Classic last month, Svensson stands out as one of this week’s top values and most notably he ranked 1st in SG: Putting en route to that win. That could make a difference this week on an easy course that should feature tons of low scores.
You can get Svensson at +165 odds to finish in the Top 20 at DraftKings which is a drastic value bet. Our model is listing that outcome all the way at -524, so don’t miss out!