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Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York will host the 2023 PGA Championship from May 18-21 in what is expected to be a chilly and wet Major tournament. This is the 105th edition of the historic tournament and the fourth time it’ll be played on this course as the world’s top golfers will duke it out for a share of the $15 million purse. Last year, Justin Thomas won his second PGA Championship in a playoff versus Will Zalatoris at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
This Par 70 Oak Hill East Course measures at 7,394 yards and is one of the toughest tests on Tour. Notably, it will look much different than it did a decade ago when it last hosted this tournament, though. Three holes were completely redone and the entire course was overhauled in 2020 and now measures 250 yards longer than it did back in 2013. Trees and bunkers were removed, greens were completely altered and this is sure to play completely differently. Nonetheless, 99 of the Top 100 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in this field, so it is sure to feature some stellar rounds.
You can watch the 2023 PGA Championship on ESPN/ESPN+ on Thursday, Friday and Saturday before the main Final Round groups air live on CBS on Sunday.
In this article, you’ll see BetQL’s PGA Model picks, sleepers to consider and more information about the course and field that will help you make some informed bets.
BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable). Last week, we accurately projected Tyrrell Hatton’s Top 5 Finish (+330) at the Byron Nelson and the week before that, we nailed Xander Schauffele’s Top 5 Finish (+500) and Tyrrell Hatton’s Top 20 Finish (+190) at the Wells Fargo Championship, so let's keep the success rolling!
Jon Rahm To Win (+750, FanDuel)
BetQL Model Projection: +344 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rahm stands atop the FedExCup standings and has been on a tear once again this season. With four wins under his belt already this season, including The Masters, Rahm is still in solid form, coming off a 2nd place finish at the Mexico Open. What sets Rahm apart from the field is that there are legitimately zero weaknesses to his game and he’s the world’s most complete player at the moment.
Right now, Rahm ranks 1st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, Birdie Percentage, Eagle Percentage, Par 3 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring and Scoring Average. Additionally, he ranks 2nd in Putting Average, Par 4 Scoring, Greens In Regulation Percentage, 3rd in SG: Approach To Green, 4th in Approaches Of 200+ Yards, 5th in Proximity and 6th in Total Driving. Again, this guy has absolutely no holes in his game whatsoever and his analytics prove it. Our model is giving him +344 odds to win, which make his +750 odds at FanDuel a nice value!
Rory McIlroy Top 5 Finish (+450, BetMGM)
BetQL Model Projection: +123 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
“My connection to Rochester has got a lot stronger,” McIlroy recently told The Associated Press, per PGATour.com. “So I’m excited to go and play a major championship in what feels like almost a second home to me.” The reason for this is that his wife Erica is from Rochester. He will have strong support from friends and family and the local community this week, which is a positive since he’s been in bad form lately, completely missing the cut at THE PLAYERS and The Masters while faltering in non-Majors. Not only that, but he’s actually a member of Oak Hill Country Club. That familiarity should impact him in a positive way this week, especially in cold and/or inclement weather.
At this point of the season, McIlroy ranks 1st in Driving Distance (and essentially every Driving metric) and 1st in Going For The Green, which indicates how aggressive he’s been. He also ranks 4th in SG: Tee-To-Green and 7th in SG: Off-The-Tee. It’s also worth noting how great he’s been in Par 5 situations due to the length he can get off the tee. He ranks 4th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders and 9th in Par 5 Scoring Average. You can get him at +450 (BetMGM) to finish in the Top 5 this week and our model is listing that as a fantastic bargain since we’re projecting +123 odds.
Tony Finau Top 10 Finish (+240, Bet365)
BetQL Model Projection: +125 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Coming off a win at the Mexico Open, Finau enters this tournament with some confidence. Not only that, but he’s won four PGA events in his last 18 starts, all of which have come by three-plus strokes. So when he’s on, he’s really on and nobody has been able to even sniff him. Overall, he has four Top 10 finishes this season and our model is giving him +125 odds to accomplish that feat this week, which makes his +240 odds at Bet365 a nice price.
What sets Finau apart from the field (other than his ability to be really streaky) is his approach game. He ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Approach To Green, 1st in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, 3rd in SG: Total, 3rd in Birdie Average, 3rd in Par Breakers 4th in Scoring Average, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Going For The Green: Birdie Or Better and 5th in Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage.
Max Homa Top 20 Finish (+150, PointsBet)
BetQL Model Projection: -120 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Coming off a T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship, Homa is enjoying a very successful PGA season so far. With outright wins at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Fortinet Championship, Homa finished 2nd at The Genesis Invitational, T3 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship. While he finished T43 at The Masters and then had two missed cuts before Wells Fargo, he’s someone to watch this week as he ranks 3rd in the FedExCup standings.
Overall Homa ranks 2nd on Tour in Par 3 Scoring Average, 5th in Putting Average 7th in SG: Total, 9th in SG: Approach To Green and 10th in SG: Putting, so he has that multi-dimensional, well-rounded game that he’s looking for and is competent with any club in his bag. Our model is projecting this outcome (-120 odds) and you can get it at +150 at PointsBet right now. Have confidence in this pick even if Homa’s Major history isn’t as extensive as others in the field.
Aaron Wise Top 40 Finish (+230, DraftKings)
BetQL Model Projection: +107 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wise may have finished T50 at the Byron Nelson last week, but his final round of 64 showed his upside when he can put multiple facets of his game together. He enters this week with low expectations, but should have quite a bit of confidence after making the cut and shooting that low in his last round. While some recent missed cuts have tampered his season results, he still has a 6th place finish at the CJ CUP in South Carolina as well as a T15 at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, T18 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and a T22 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
While there are some deficiencies in his overall game, Wise can make noise with his putter. He ranks 3rd on Tour in Total Putting, 4th in Putting Average, 6th in Putts Per Round, 8th in SG: Putting and also 10th in One-Putt Percentage. That has helped him rank 16th in Par 4 Scoring and 18th in Birdie Average as well. If you want to take a shot on someone this week, consider grabbing Wise to finish in the Top 40 at +230 at DraftKings (we have those odds at +107).