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BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Scroll down to see our best bets for this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Matt Fitzpatrick To Win +1100 at PointsBet
BetQL is giving Fitzpatrick +969 odds to win this event, which makes the +1100 odds at PointsBet a four-star value. He finished T6 here last year and T12 at the 2019 U.S. Open which was played at Pebble Beach. Fitzpatrick leads the field in Greens In Regulation (7th on Tour) and also ranks 2nd on Tour in Proximity From The Rough, both of which are extremely important because greens at Pebble Beach are some of the smallest on Tour. Over the past 11 years, the winner at this event has ranked inside the Top 10 in Greens in Regulation, so Fitzpatrick’s elite status there should only give him a leg up on the field this week.
Coming off a T7 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, Fitzpatrick is off to a hot start to 2022-2023, having also recorded a pair of T13 finishes in his other two events. As someone who finished in the Top 10 nine different times last season with a win at the U.S. Open, I’m very comfortable backing him to win this week.
Webb Simpson Top 5 Finish +1600 at BetMGM
Our model is listing this as the best bet of the week. Simpson’s +1600 odds at BetMGM are a massive bargain and a five-star value because we have this outcome at +294. While Simpson’s form has not been great to start the new year, BetQL’s PGA Model is extremely high on him this week, which is a bit surprising. He posted a T16 in the U.S. Open at his last appearance here in 2019 and the data points to him having a breakout week.
Maverick McNealy Top 10 Finish +220 at FanDuel
BetQL is giving McNealy +197 odds to finish in the Top 10, which makes his +220 odds at FanDuel a four-star value. The youngster recorded his first runner-up finish at Pebble Beach in 2021 and placed T5 here in 2020 as well. Ranking 2nd on Tour in Strokes-Gained: Putting and 5th in Scoring Average this season, McNealy has four Top 10 finishes already this season, including in two of his last three starts.
Lanto Griffin Top 20 Finish +360 at DraftKings
The model is giving Griffin +121 odds to finish in the Top 20, which makes his +360 odds a four-star value at DraftKings. He finished T16 here last season and T9 in 2020, so he’s clearly comfortable in this event and at this venue. Grabbing such long odds for this outcome seems like a no-brainer since he’s accomplished the feat twice in a row.