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Fresh off of his win at the American Express last week, Jon Rahm is a huge favorite this week at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and is rightfully getting a lot of buzz. The 156-man field will play the North Course once and the South Course once before the 36-hole cut to the low 65 (plus ties) whittles things down. At a crazy 7,765 yards, Torrey South is the longest course on the PGA Tour while Torrey North measures at 7,258 yards. Therefore, length off the tee will be an important factor to consider this week. Luke List won this event with a -15 score of 273 last year and will be looking to defend his title.
BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Last week, our model nailed Xander Schauffele’s Top 5 Finish (+400, DraftKings) when he finished third at the American Express.
Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Xander Schauffele To Win +1100 At BetMGM
Schauffele returns home to San Diego this week, where he’s surely comfortable. Last season, he finished T2 at the Farmers and T7 at the U.S. Open on this course and is in great form right now, finishing T3 at the American Express last week. BetQL is giving him +706 odds to win, which makes his +1100 odds at BetMGM a five-star value. He recently made it clear that playing at this course means a ton to him because his friends and family can be in attendance and turned heads at the Pro-Am earlier this week. While Rahm is the favorite for many reasons, Schauffele is the best value bet to take home the hardware.
Will Zalatoris Top 5 Finish +400 at Caesars
Zalatoris lost to List in a playoff last year and also finished T7 here back in 2021, so it’s clear he’s a fan of this tournament. Since he returned from a back ailment, all eight of his rounds have been below 70 strokes and our model is giving him +166 odds to finish in the Top 5. That makes his +400 odds at Caesars one of the best bets of the entire week, a 5-star value. In his measured rounds this season, he ranks 2nd in Tour in Greens In Regulation Percentage (80.56%), 4th in Birdie Average (5.75) and 6th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (.838), all of which suggest that he should be in for a big performance.
Justin Thomas Top 10 Finish +190 at DraftKings
Due to his all-around game, it’s always a great idea to back JT and this week is no exception. He finished in the Top 20 in both of his last appearances at Torrey Pines (T19 at 2021 U.S. Open and a T20 at 2020 Farmers) and BetQL’s PGA Model is giving him +158 odds to finish in the Top 10 this week, making his +190 odds at DraftKings a 4-star value pick. Ranking 3rd in Driving Distance - All Drives (312.5), 7th in SG: Around The Green (.852) and 8th in Greens In Regulation Percentage (76.39%), Thomas grades out well this week and I expect him to find himself in the mix on Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 Finish +190 at FanDuel
Matsuyama has made the cut in seven of nine appearances at Torrey Pines and that includes three Top 20 finishes with a high of T3 back in 2019. The model is projecting this outcome to occur, as its -114 odds suggest. FanDuel has +190 odds on it, which makes it a five-star bet and one of the top options of the board this week.
Emiliano Grillo Top 40 Finish +160 at FanDuel
Ranking 19th on Tour in Total Driving Efficiency (71), Grillo has finished in the Top 40 in nine of his last 13 PGA tournaments dating back to last season. BetQL is giving him -190 odds to accomplish that feat once again this week, which makes his +160 odds at FanDuel a five-star value.