2023 Open Championship Picks, Predictions & Sleepers

How to Bet The 2023 British Open

Royal Liverpool GC in Hoylake, England, will host the 2023 Open Championship as 156 golfers battle it out for their share of the $16.5M purse. The winner will take home $3 million. Below, you’ll see our model’s best bets and sleeper picks for this week’s PGA Tour event.

Last week, we cashed the winner of the Genesis Scottish Open with Rory McIlroy at +900! Let's see if we can do the same this week at the last major of the year.

MORE: BEST OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS BOOSTS & PROMOS

2023 Open Championship Model Picks, Predictions & Sleepers 

The BetQL PGA model nailed Rory McIlroy (+900) to win last week's Genesis Scottish Open, and it was backing Jon Rahm when he won the Masters this year, so you'll definitely want to check out the model's value picks for the Open Championship below!

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below come from BetQL’s PGA Model. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

After running our PGA Model, these particular finishing position bets are standing out with the most value on the board. 

Top Finishing Position Model Picks For The Open Championship

Jon Rahm To Win (+1300, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL’s PGA Model is giving Rahm +620 odds to win this event, thus making his +1300 odds at DraftKings a solid value. He's having a fantastic season so far and is ranked No. 1 in the FedExCup standings right now. Rahm is ranked third in the world right now via OWGR (Official World Golf Ranking). He's played in 16 events so far this season and has managed to notch FOUR wins already, while also finishing runner-up once. He has nine top-10 finishes and 11 top-25 finishes in his 16 events. In his last event, he failed to make the cut at the Travelers Championship with a score of 2-under par.

Justin Thomas Top-20 Finish (+220, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The model is giving Thomas -115 odds to finish in the top 20 and you can get valuable +220 odds over at DraftKings. The American has had his worst season in a long time, but we all know what he is capable of. He's currently sitting at 75th in the FedExCup standings and is ranked 20th in the world right now. He's competed in 17 events this season, but has failed to notch a win or a runner-up finish. However, he has placed in the top 10 three times and has finished in the top 25 nine times. In his last event at the Genesis Scottish Open, he came in tied for 60th with a score of 1-under par.

Patrick Cantlay Top-5 Finish (+500, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Cantlay +267 odds to finish in the top five, wildly different odds than the +500 odds you can find at FanDuel. He's having a great season so far, sitting at 11th in the FedExCup rankings, and is now fourth on the OWGR. He hasn't been able to win an event this season, but he does have one runner-up finish, and he owns eight top-10 placements. Out of his 17 events played, he has 13 top-25 finishes as well. In his last event at the Genesis Scottish Open, he failed to make the cut with a score of 1-under par.

Tony Finau Top-10 Finish (+400, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL is giving Finau +172 odds to finish in the top 10, which makes his +400 odds at FanDuel a bargain. The American has had a fantastic season, sitting at ninth in the FedExCup standings and 16th in the world. He's competed in 19 events this season and has picked up a pair of wins along the way. He has also placed in the top 10 four times and has finished in the top 25 11 times. In his last event at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he failed to make the cut with a score of 1-under par.

Sungjae Im Top-40 Finish (-110, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL is giving Im -151 odds to finish in the top 40 and you can capitalize on this -110 price. The South Korean golfer is currently ranked 35th in the FedExCup standings, and 23rd in the world via OWGR. Im has played in 24 events this year and has not secured a win or a runner-up finish yet. He does have seven top-10 finishes and 13 top-25 finishes, however. In his last event at the Genesis Scottish Open, he failed to make the cut with an even score.

Open Championship Staff Picks, Predictions & Sleepers 

Lucy Burdge: Scottie Scheffler to win outright (+750, BetMGM)

I know these odds are on the shorter side here and he’s second in the odds to win, but I think Scheffler is the right bet. He has played very consistently and is the No. 1 golfer in the world. He now has also racked up seven top-five finishes in a row after finishing in a tie for third at the Scottish Open. So I think he can get it done and win this one. This is a great pick for BetMGM's Top 20 Insurance promo!

Dan Karpuc: Robert MacIntyre to win outright (+9000, FanDuel)

The 26-year old Scottish standout has been clearly comfortable at this event, notching two top-10 finishes in three career starts. The left-hander is in fantastic form, too, coming off a T4 at Made In Denmark and then a second-place finish at the Scottish Open last week. He hit a number of insane shots and showed off his creativity and touch last week, as he battled the elements on a challenging course, just like he will have to do this week. Are there bigger names in the field? Obviously. Is he the most logical pick to win? Probably not. However, I love the value and upside at this price over at FanDuel. You can even sprinkle a little on MacIntyre to win and get your stake back (up to $25) if he finishes in the top 20 but doesn't win with FanDuel's Top 20 Insurance promo this week!

Brad Pinkerton: Rory McIlroy to win outright (+750 boosted to +1050 at DraftKings)

DraftKings is running a great promo for the Open Championship: Opt in and get an Odds Surge token to add +300 odds to any golfer to win the Open. The best strategy is usually to add the surge to a golfer with relatively short odds for the biggest boost percentage-wise. For example, with Scottie Scheffler +700 at DK, adding +300 would make him +1000 to win the Open for a 43% boost. I'm using my surge to boost McIlroy from +750 to +1050 since I already had money on Scheffler elsewhere, but both are fine choices for this promo.

MORE: BEST OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS BOOSTS & PROMOS

2023 Open Championship Odds

Odds to win 2023 Open Championship as of July 17

• Rory McIlroy +700
• Scottie Scheffler +750
• Jon Rahm +1100
• Cameron Smith +1400
• Brooks Koepka +2000
• Viktor Hovland +2000
• Rickie Fowler +2000
• Tommy Fleetwood +2000
• Tyrrell Hatton +2200
• Xander Schauffele +2500
• Shane Lowry +2800
• Patrick Cantlay +2800
• Collin Morikawa +3000
• Jordan Spieth +3300
• Dustin Johnson +3500
• Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
• Justin Rose +4500
• Tom Kim +4500
• Max Homa +5000
• Wyndham Clark +5000
• Tony Finau +5500
• Sam Burns +5500
• Cameron Young +5500
• Bryson Dechambeau +5500
• Justin Thomas +6000
• Min Woo Lee +6000
• Robert MacIntyre +6000
• Patrick Reed +7000
• Talor Gooch +7000
• Adam Scott +7500
• Hideki Matsuyama +9000
• Ryan Fox +9000
• Jason Day +10000
• Sung-Jae Im +10000
• Corey Conners +10000
• Louis Oosthuizen +11000
• Brian Harman +11000
• Keegan Bradley +11000
• Padraig Harrington +12500
• Si Woo Kim +12500
• Russell Henley +12500
• Denny McCarthy +12500
• Joaquin Niemann +14000
• Sahith Theegala +15000
• Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
• Lucas Herbert +17500
• Rasmus Hojgaard +17500
• Byeong-Hun An +17500
• Matthew Jordan +20000
• Sepp Straka +20000
• Kurt Kitayama +20000
• Adrian Meronk +20000
• Harris English +20000
• Branden Grace +20000
• Gary Woodland +22500
• Phil Mickelson +22500
• Jordan Smith +22500
• J.T. Poston +22500
• Ewen Ferguson +22500
• Alexander Bjork +25000
• Thorbjorn Olesen +25000
• Thomas Detry +25000
• Alex Noren +25000
• Daniel Hillier +27500
• Thomas Pieters +27500
• Victor Perez +27500
• Chris Kirk +27500
• Adam Schenk +30000
• Taylor Moore +30000
• Seamus Power +30000
• Tom Hoge +30000
• Billy Horschel +35000
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout +35000
• Emiliano Grillo +35000
• Yannik Paul +35000
• Joost Luiten +35000
• Davis Riley +35000
• David Lingmerth +35000
• Nick Taylor +35000
• Kyoung-Hoon Lee +40000
• Brendon Todd +40000
• Matt Wallace +40000
• Henrik Stenson +40000
• Richie Ramsay +40000
• Abraham Ancer +40000
• Francesco Molinari +40000
• Pablo Larrazabal +45000
• Andrew Putnam +45000
• Thriston Lawrence +45000

The Open Championship odds insight from BetMGM

Line Movement (opening, current)

• Scottie Scheffler +850, +750
• Rory McIlroy +700, +750
• Brooks Koepka +3300, +2000
• Viktor Hovland +2800, +2000
• Rickie Fowler +15000, +2200

Highest Ticket%

• Scottie Scheffler 11.4%
• Rory McIlroy 9.8%
• Brooks Koepka 6.8%

 Highest Handle%

• Scottie Scheffler 19.4%
• Rory McIlroy 14.3%
• Brooks Koepka 8.3%

 Biggest Liabilities

• Scottie Scheffler
• Rory McIlroy
• Brooks Koepka

 The Open Championship – First Round Leader

 Highest Ticket%

• Rory McIlroy 5.04%
• Rickie Fowler 4.99%
• Scottie Scheffler 4.1%

Highest Handle%

• Cameron Smith 7.9%
• Scottie Scheffler 6.4%
• Rory McIlroy 6.3%

 Biggest Liabilities

• Cameron Smith
• Rickie Fowler
• Patrick Cantlay

 The Open Championship – Place

Most bet top 5 (tickets)

• Scottie Scheffler
• Rory McIlroy
• Brooks Koepka

Most bet top 10 (tickets)

• Scottie Scheffler
• Jon Rahm
• Cameron Smith

Most bet top 20 (tickets)

• Rickie Fowler
• Viktor Hovland
• Brooks Koepka

 The Open Championship – The Cut

 Most bet to make the cut (tickets)

• Phil Mickelson (+110)
• Matthew Jordan (+100)
• Cameron Smith (-500)

 Most bet to miss the cut (tickets)

• Bryson DeChambeau (+188)
• Justin Thomas (+188)
• Brooks Koepka (+320)

Learn more about the 2023 Open Championship

The 2023 Open Championship will be the 151st edition of the tournament. It will be played from July 20-23 at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, Wirral, England.

The tournament will be broadcast on NBC Sports across Peacock (streaming), USA Network and NBC during the tournament.

The purse for the tournament is $16.5 million.

Where is the 2023 Open Championship being Played?

The 2023 Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, Wirral, England. The last time the Open was held at this course, Rory McIlroy won the Claret Jug in 2014.

Who Won the 2022 Open Championship?

Cameron Smith won the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews with a score of 20-under par.

Who are the Favorite Open Championship Picks to Win in 2023?

The top 5 favorites to win the 2023 Open Championship are:

1. Rory McIlroy +700
2. Scottie Scheffler +750
3. Jon Rahm +1100
4. Cameron Smith +1400
several tied at +2000 odds

These players are all ranked among the top 10 in the world and have been in good form lately. McIlroy is a four-time major champion, including the 2014 British Open at Royal Liverpool; Rahm won the 2021 U.S. Open and the 2023 Masters; and Cameron Smith won the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews.

These are just a few of the many players who could contend to win the 2023 Open Championship, which is always an unpredictable tournament.

Who are Some 2023 Open Championship Sleeper Picks?

Here are some sleeper picks to win the 2023 Open Championship:

• Patrick Cantlay +2800
• Tony Finau +5500
• Justin Thomas +6000
• Sung-Jae Im +10000

These players are all capable of winning the British Open. Even though they are not among the top favorites, they represent great value according to our PGA model.

Who has Won the Most Open Championship Tournaments?

Harry Vardon holds the record for the most Open Championship victories, winning six times during his career.

What is a good 2023 Open Championship Betting Strategy?

• Do your research. Before you place any bets, it is important to do your research and understand the golfers you are betting on. Look at their past performances, their current form, and the course they are playing on.
• Betting on favorites is not always the best option. While the favorites are often the most likely to win, they are also the least profitable to bet on. Instead, look for golfers who are in good form and who have a good chance of beating the odds.
• Be patient. Betting on golf is a long-term game. Don't expect to win every bet you make. Just keep betting on golfers you believe in and eventually you will start to see a profit.
• Be disciplined. It is important to stick to your betting strategy and not get carried away. If you start chasing losses, you will quickly lose all of your money.
• Know when to quit. If you are on a losing streak, it is important to know when to quit. Don't keep betting just to try to win back your losses. Just take a break and come back to it later.

Following these tips will help you improve your chances of winning when betting on golf.