2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets & Sleeper Picks

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting

TPC Craig Ranch will host the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. This challenging layout will test every aspect of a golfer's game and requires accuracy off the tee, precise approach shots and solid putting skills. The field will battle it out for a share of the $8.5 million purse and CBS will televise the weekend rounds while the Golf Channel takes the first 36. Below, you’ll see BetQL’s best bets and sleeper picks for this event, but before we get to that, let’s key in on the three crucial skills that our picks must have this week.

Since the TPC Craig Ranch golf course features a number of narrow fairways and hazards, accuracy off the tee is crucial. Golfers who can consistently find the fairway will have a better chance of setting up birdie and eagle opportunities. With challenging greens and strategically-placed bunkers, golfers will need to have strong iron play to give themselves the best chance at hitting the greens in regulation. Accurate approach shots will be key to setting up scoring chances. Finally, the greens at TPC Craig Ranch are large and undulating, requiring golfers to have a good touch on the greens. Being able to read the greens and make putts will be key to scoring well. Keep that all in mind when betting on the AT&T Byron Nelson. 

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable). Last week, we nailed Xander Schauffele’s Top 5 Finish (+500) and Tyrrell Hatton’s Top 20 Finish (+190) at the Wells Fargo Championship, so let's keep the success rolling!

AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets

Wondering which golfers to target this week? BetQL’s PGA Model identified the following best bets for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. K.H. Lee is the back-to-back defending champion at this event, but we’re focused on other golfers with more value this week, as you’ll see below.

Scottie Scheffler To Win ⭐⭐⭐

Best Odds: +450 (Caesars)

After sitting out of the Wells Fargo Championship last week, the No. 2 golfer in the world is back this week and stands out as the best golfer in the field. We’re giving him the best chance to win the tournament and he’s been extremely hot to start out the year, racking up two victories and finishing outside of the top 12 just one time. This is the last stop before the PGA Championship, so we should expect to see the best from Scheffler, as he looks to get this one final tune-up.

Scheffler ranks 1st in SG: Off The Tee, 1st in SG: Tee To Green, 1st in Greens In Regulation Percentage, 2nd in SG: Total, 2nd in Scoring Average, 3rd in Total Driving, 5th in SG: Approach To Green and 5th in Birdie Average. In other words, this guy’s game is elite and well-rounded, the perfect recipe to win at TPC Craig Ranch.

Tyrrell Hatton Top 5 Finish ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best Odds: +330 (DraftKings)

I’m a huge fan of Hatton’s game and the BetQL Model is on him again this week. We’re giving him +270 odds to finish in the Top 5, which makes his +330 odds at DraftKings a solid bargain. As mentioned above, we nailed Hatton’s Top 20 finish at the Wells Fargo last week when he finished T3, but he’s had some great results this season, including a 2nd finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, T4 showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T6 finish at the WM Phoenix Open. 

Known as one of the best putters in the world over the last few seasons, Hatton has put more elements of his game together this season, especially with his long irons. As a result, he ranks 7th on Tour in SG: Total, 8th in SG: Approach To Green and 10th in SG: Off The Tee. In this weaker-than-usual field, he’s a fantastic option to contend at the end of the day on Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best Odds: +240 (DraftKings)

Matsuyama withdrew from the Wells Fargo due to his lingering neck issue, but if he’s healthy, he’s a fantastic option this week. He finished third here last year and BetQL is giving him +178 odds to finish in the Top 10, which makes his +240 odds at DraftKings a fantastic value.

Known as one of the best ball-strikers on Tour throughout his career, Matsuyama’s iron play should put him in contention yet again this week. His neck injury could actually play into our favor here since oddsmakers most likely factored that into his current prices across the industry.

AT&T Byron Nelson Sleeper Picks

What’s better than PGA sleeper picks? These are the two golfers that we think have a ton of upside this week.

Aaron Wise Top 20 Finish ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best Odds: +190 (DraftKings)

BetQL is giving Wise +133 odds to finish in the Top 20 this week, which makes his +190 odds at DraftKings stand out as a valuable option. While he’s missed four cuts in his last five tournaments, he’s posted Top 20 finishes in three of his 10 starts on Tour this season. What makes him stand out this week is the work he’s done with his putter. Wise ranks 4th in Putting Average, 5th in Putts Per Round and 7th in One-Putt Percentage. That should separate him from the field if he hits enough greens in regulation.

Davis Riley Top 40 Finish ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best Odds: +150 (DraftKings)

Our model is giving Riley -116 odds to finish in the Top 40 this week, which makes his +150 odds at DraftKings a clear target. Riley may have missed the cut at Quail Hollow last week, but he won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans the week before that and has posted some solid results at other times this year, most notably a T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T19 at the Valspar Championship. 

Ranking 14th in Proximity, 25th in SG: Approach To Green and 26th in Approaches Of 200+ Yards and 37th in Greens In Regulation Percentage, Riley has some tools in his bag to make the cut and put up respectable numbers at this course, per our model.

About TPC Craig Ranch

The TPC Craig Ranch golf course is a championship golf course located in McKinney, Texas, USA. It was designed by Tom Weiskopf and opened in 2004. The course is part of the Tournament Players Club (TPC) network, which is owned by the PGA Tour.

The TPC Craig Ranch golf course features 18 holes and measures 7,438 yards from the championship tees. The course is known for its challenging layout, which includes water hazards, deep bunkers, and undulating greens. It has hosted several professional golf events, including the AT&T Byron Nelson. 

Here’s a hole-by-hole breakdown of TPC Craig Ranch. Keep in mind that Holes 8, 12 and 16 are recognized as the most challenging:

Hole 1: A par-4 hole that measures 437 yards from the back tees. It features a dogleg left and a green that slopes from back to front.

Hole 2: A par-5 hole that measures 561 yards from the back tees. It features a slight dogleg left and a green that is well-guarded by bunkers.

Hole 3: A par-4 hole that measures 436 yards from the back tees. It features a narrow fairway and a green that slopes from right to left.

Hole 4: A par-3 hole that measures 210 yards from the back tees. It features a green that is surrounded by water and bunkers.

Hole 5: A par-4 hole that measures 465 yards from the back tees. It features a slight dogleg right and a green that slopes from back to front.

Hole 6: A par-4 hole that measures 447 yards from the back tees. It features a narrow fairway and a green that slopes from left to right.

Hole 7: A par-3 hole that measures 178 yards from the back tees. It features a green that is well-guarded by bunkers.

Hole 8: A par-5 hole that measures 618 yards from the back tees. It features a dogleg left and a green that is well-protected by bunkers.

Hole 9: A par-4 hole that measures 442 yards from the back tees. It features a dogleg left and a green that slopes from back to front.

Hole 10: A par-4 hole that measures 411 yards from the back tees. It features a narrow fairway and a green that slopes from back to front.

Hole 11: A par-3 hole that measures 181 yards from the back tees. It features a green that is well-guarded by bunkers.

Hole 12: A par-5 hole that measures 579 yards from the back tees. It features a dogleg right and a green that is well-protected by bunkers.

Hole 13: A par-4 hole that measures 438 yards from the back tees. It features a narrow fairway and a green that slopes from back to front.

Hole 14: A par-4 hole that measures 438 yards from the back tees. It features a dogleg left and a green that is well-guarded by bunkers.

Hole 15: A par-3 hole that measures 161 yards from the back tees. It features a green that is surrounded by bunkers.

Hole 16: A par-4 hole that measures 485 yards from the back tees. It features a dogleg left and a green that slopes from back to front.

Hole 17: A par-4 hole that measures 417 yards from the back tees. It features a narrow fairway and a green that is well-guarded by bunkers.

Hole 18: A par-5 hole that measures 540 yards from the back tees. It features a dogleg left and a green that slopes from back to front.

How To Bet On Golf

Betting on golf can be an exciting way to add some extra interest to the game. Here are some steps to get started with betting on golf:

Understand the different types of bets: There are a variety of ways to bet on golf, including outright winner, top-five finish, head-to-head matchups, and more. Research each type of bet and understand the odds before placing your bets.

Do your research: Before placing any bets, do some research on the tournament and the golfers who will be competing. Look at recent form, course history, and any other relevant statistics or information that could help inform your betting decisions.

Set a budget: It's important to set a budget for your golf betting and stick to it. Determine how much you're willing to spend and don't exceed that amount.

Shop for the best odds: Different sportsbooks may offer different odds for the same bet. Shop around to find the best odds before placing your bets.

Follow the action: Once you've placed your bets, follow the action closely. Keep track of your bets and adjust your strategy as necessary.

Manage your bankroll: As you win or lose bets, manage your bankroll accordingly. Don't chase losses by betting more than you can afford, and don't get too aggressive with your bets if you're on a winning streak.

Remember that betting on golf, like any form of gambling, carries some risk. Always bet responsibly and within your means.