2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Our PGA Model Is Backing Jon Rahm

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

The PGA Tour moves on to Arnold Palmer Invitational at the beautiful Bay Hill Club this week and some of the game’s top golfers will battle it out for a share of the $20 million purse. Below, you’ll see our model’s best finishing position bets with analysis.

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Winner Pick

Jon Rahm To Win +700 At FanDuel

BetQL’s PGA Model is giving Jon Rahm +597 odds to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, thus making FanDuel’s odds a 5-star value. With five PGA Tour wins over the last five months, Rahm became the first golfer since 1975 to win three events before March 1 and is in otherworldly form right now. Leading the Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, Scoring Average, Greens in Regulation, Birdie Average, Par 3 Scoring and Par 5 Scoring, Rahm unsurprisingly stands atop the FedExCup standings. 

Just how insane has his recent form been? Consider this. Per PGATour.com, in his last 10 worldwide starts, only 19 of 1,025 other golfers have finished ahead of him in a given week. He has either beaten or tied a ridiculous 98.1% of the competition and on average, fewer than two players per tournament have posted a better score than him. He’s been inside the top five after 26 of 39 rounds played. That’s unheard of.

Not only that, but Rahm is inside the Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting. Over the last 20 seasons, Tiger Woods is the only golfer to accomplish that feat (in 2005 and 2007). Not bad company, right?

After posting a T17 in his debut at this tournament last year, there’s another reason to love his outlook this week: approach shots more than 200 yards. This course has demanded more of those shots over the last five years and six of the last seven winners have ranked T7 or better in score to par when facing an approach shot of that length. Of the 230-plus golfers with at least 100 approach shots from that range over the last three years, Rahm has the best average score to par! He’s the best bet this week by a mile.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Picks: Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 40

Rory McIlroy Top 5 Finish + 210 At PointsBet

Per our model, Rory McIlroy has +179 odds to finish in the Top 5 at this event, making PointsBet’s odds a 5-star value. McIlroy has never missed a cut (8-for-8) here, won the event in 2018, finished in the Top 15 seven different times and never finished below 27th. When his game is on, he’s one of the few golfers that can take over an event from start to finish.

Justin Thomas Top 10 Finish +280 At Caesars

We’re giving Justin Thomas +167 odds to finish in the Top 10 at this event, making Caesars’ odds a 4-star value. Speaking of someone who can take over when his game is on, Thomas’ ability to make shots with his long irons should come in handy this week. The Florida resident should also be used to the warm and breezy conditions at this venue.

Will Zalatoris Top 20 Finish +100 at DraftKings

The data is giving Will Zalatoris -118 odds to finish in the Top 20, which makes DraftKings’ +100 odds a 4-star value. In two appearances at this event, he has made the cut both times and finished T10 in 2021. Also someone who is very crafty and strong with his long irons, Zalatoris should have another narrative on his side since he was on the Arnold Palmer Scholarship at Wake Forest when he was back in college.

Aaron Wise Top 40 Finish -110 at BetMGM

Per BetQL, Aaron Wise should have -229 odds to finish in the Top 40, which makes BetMGM’s -110 odds a solid discount. Last year, he finished 17th at this event and has posted an average finish of 24th over his last 23 tournaments. This is simply the most valuable Top 40 option on the board.