2023 American Express Betting Preview, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Our PGA Model Is Backing Cantlay

2023 American Express Best Bets

The PGA Tour heads to California this week for the 2023 American Express. This is an interesting event since the first three rounds will be played on three different courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA WEST, Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST and the La Quinta Country Club. At the end of those first three rounds, the 156-man field will be cut to the top 65 and ties before the final round which will take place at the Stadium Course. Weather conditions look nice and all three courses aren’t very daunting, so expect some low scores once again this week as the $8 million purse ($1.44M to first) is up for grabs.

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

American Express Outright Winner Pick

Patrick Cantlay To Win +1100 at BetMGM

BetQL is giving Patrick Cantlay +710 odds to win this tournament, which makes his +1100 odds at BetMGM a five-star (max) value. He’s posted T9, 2nd and 9th finishes in his last three appearances at this event and his well-rounded skill set always suits him well regardless of the course. That all-around game should be extra handy this week since three different courses will be golfed. 

Per PGATour.com, Cantlay holds the Stadium Course record by two shots (61 in 2021). He also opened with 62 at La Quinta last year and led after the first two rounds. Not only that, but in his 15 rounds at this event, he finished under 72 all 15 times, including six under 66. This is the best outright winner pick of the week.

American Express Model Picks - Top 5, Top 10 & Top 20

Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish +400 at DraftKings

Our model is giving Xander Schauffele +191 odds to finish in the Top 5, which indicates that his +400 DraftKings odds are quite a bargain. In fact, we’re labeling this as a five-star value. While some bettors may be wary of backing Schauffele following his withdrawal in Maui, he has been cleared to play and began the 2022-2023 season with a T9 at the ZOZO Championship and a 4th-place finish at the Hero World Challenge before that. 

He was one of the hottest players on Tour towards the end of last season when he posted these finishes from the middle of the summer onwards: 1st at the Travelers Championship, 1st at the Genesis Scottish Open, T3 at the BMW Championship and 4th at the TOUR Championship. Take advantage of these odds and back one of the best golfers in the world.

Will Zalatoris Top 10 Finish +210 at DraftKings

Per BetQL, Will Zalatoris has +134 odds to finish in the Top 10. This is another five-star value since you can get +210 odds on this outcome at DraftKings right now. He finished T6 in his first American Express last year and is coming off a T11 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. With seven different Top 10 finishes under his belt from last year, Zalatoris is used to going low and performing on Sunday when it matters most. Our model is indicating that this is a misprice, so be sure to take advantage of it now!

Denny McCarthy Top 20 Finish +280 at FanDuel

The PGA Model is giving McCarthy +125 odds to finish in the Top 20, which makes his +280 FanDuel odds a four-star value. So far in 2022-2023, he’s made seven of eight cuts with a T6 at Butterfield Bermuda Championship as his best finish. Speaking of T6, that was his position on the leaderboard last year when he went 67-67-68-67 for a -19 finish (269). Our model loves this play and so do I, especially due to that positive course history.