2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic Model Picks & Projections

The Detroit Golf Club will host the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic as 156 players will compete for a sliver of the $8.4 million purse and positioning within the FedExCup standings. In the sections below, we will reveal our model’s best bets for this event, unveil our exact projections for each of them accompanied by star ratings and explain why each one grades out well this week.

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Tony Finau To Win (+1400, BetMGM)

BetQL Projection: +612 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Finau fought from a five-stroke deficit to win the 3M Championship last week and he’s popping in our model once again this week. He put on a ball-striking spectacle at that event and our model is projecting him to perform well once again in Detroit, with +612 odds to win in back-to-back weeks. 

This Par-72, 7,370-yard course will require strong Par-5 performances out of the contenders; last year’s field averaged 4.71 strokes on those holes. Finau ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-To-Green and 16th in SG: Off-The-Tee, both of which are very important to take into account since this course features long rough on errant tee shots. Not only that, but he ranks 8th on Tour in Greens In Regulation Percentage and 12th in SG: Approach-The-Green. If he makes it to the weekend, like we project him to easily do, he ranks 11th in Third Round Scoring Average and 3rd in Fourth Round Scoring Average. So, after he gets those first two rounds in the books, he tends to perform at an elite level compared to all of the other players in the world.

Cameron Tringale Top 5 Finish (+950, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +346 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you like consistency, you probably hate Tringale. However, if you like upside, you probably love him. The American has missed eight cuts this season and is coming off of one at the 3M Open, but also has five Top 10 finishes (most recently with a T6 at the Scottish Open and also a T10 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T7 at the Houston Open and T2 at the ZOZO Championship). He also finished in the Top 15 four more times, too. 

Despite his boom-or-bust results this year, our model is giving him +346 odds to finish in the Top 5 this week, a solid value. Keep in mind that he shot a 61 (what could have been a 59 very easily) in the First Round of the Scottish Open a few weeks ago, so when he gets hot, he gets hot.

Jason Day Top 10 Finish (+800, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +209 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sure, Day hasn’t recorded a Top 10 finish in six events since the Zurich Classic of New Orleans back in April, but we’re expecting that to change this week. While some aspects of his game are questionable at the moment, his putter is not one of them. He ranks 21st on Tour in Putting Average, 22nd in Three-Putt Avoidance and 55th in One-Putt Percentage. If he makes it to Sunday, like the model projects, it’s also important to note that he ranks 15th in Putts Per Round in Round 4 across all events he’s played in this year. 

This is a very important event for Day, as he’s barely hanging onto 119th place in the FedExCup standings with just one event to go before the postseason. If he falls below the 125th spot, he’s eliminated from playoff contention and therefore ineligible for a bonus and earning potential from future playoff tournaments this season. He was No. 127 on Sunday before the PGA Tour instituted new rules to account for LIV Golf players, which adds a whole new layer of stress to the situation. Then, due to the new scoring, he moved up in the rankings. A Top 10 finish would be a gigantic boost for his morale and would essentially punch his ticket into the playoffs. Our model indicates that he has a solid chance of making that happen.

Ryan Palmer Top 20 Finish (+500, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +115 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Unlike Day, putting is a deficiency in Palmer’s game, but he’s strong off the tee, ranking 27th on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee and has gone as low as 62 in a round this year, which showed his capabilities when everything is clicking. We’re giving him +115 odds to finish in the Top 20 this week.

Most importantly, his confidence should be at an all-time high this week after it was just announced that he’s going to be inducted into the Texas Golf Hall of Fame in the Class of 2022. Per 247 Sports, “A native of Amarillo, Palmer was a three-time All-Big 12 honoree and was inducted into the Texas A&M Athletics Hall of Fame in 2016. He left Aggieland as the single-season scoring record holder with an average of 73.4 and won two individual titles.In his 19 years on the PGA Tour, Palmer has played in 465 tournaments and earned over $32 million in career earnings.” BetQL projects the future Hall of Famer to earn a Top 20 finish when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Russell Knox Top 40 Finish (+190, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: -160 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Knox ranks 3rd on Tour in Greens In Regulation Percentage, 5th in Proximity to Hole, 9th in Fairway Proximity and 19th in Driving Accuracy Percentage. However, his putter has let him down consistently, which has caused him to fall out of the Top 40 (or miss the cut entirely) in nine of his last 16 Tour events. 

Hilariously, per The Scotsman, Knox’s wife called him out on his awful putting lately. “(She) turned to me and said ‘you’ve played professional golf for so long, 15 years, and you’re horrible at putting. Please, try something different’,” Knox revealed. That change meant using a broomhandle putter for the first time, which he did in his last event, the Scottish Open. “I started messing around with it just three days before I left for here. I was 95 percent sure I was going to chicken out. Even when I left this morning, I said to Andrea ‘there is a chance I could be back before my tee time’.” 

He ended up finishing T42 at the Scottish Open and perhaps the new putter will improve the part of his game that’s plagued him for his entire career. BetQL is projecting him to finish in the Top 40 this week and is giving him -160 odds to do so.