TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois will host the 2022 John Deere Classic and players will compete for a $7.1 million purse, including $1.278 million to the winner. The Par-71, 7,289-yard course featured a scoring average of 69.513 last year and the field averaged almost 13 greens in regulation per round. Therefore, expect some low scores once again this week, even in hot summer conditions. We are going to target golfers that can not only get on the green in regulation, but also convert those opportunities. Last year, there was only one round above par from players who finished in the Top 20, per PGATour.com.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
Webb Simpson To Win (+1400, BetMGM)
BetQL Projection: +1074 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Simpson is the best player in this field and is finally healthy after returning from a neck injury that contributed to an up-and-down season. He’s coming off a T13 at the Travelers Championship last week and now has three Top 27 finishes in his last four starts. Before faltering in the 4th round of the Travelers, he opened with a 64-69-66 and now ranks 14th on Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average and 7th on Tour in Round 3 Scoring Average. The last five winners at this event have all been T6 or better in Ball Striking and given where Simpson’s game is right now, he’s the best bet to win, even as the favorite. BetQL’s model is giving him +1074 odds to win, a notable difference from BetMGM’s +1400 odds.
Jason Day Top 5 Finish (+800, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: +436 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While Day has struggled with numerous parts of his game this season, his putter has still been among the best on Tour. He ranks 20th in Putting Average (1.727), 24th in 3-Putt Avoidace (1.93%) and 29th in One-Putt Percentage (41.43%). In a watered-down field in which everyone will be dotting the greens with approach shots, the Aussie’s elite putting skills can set him apart. BetQL is giving him +436 odds to finish in the Top 5, which means you can get a major discount by grabbing DraftKings’ +800 odds.
Maverick McNealy Top 10 Finish (+333, BetMGM)
BetQL Projection: +213 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
McNealy finished T18 here last year and ranks 3rd in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage, which could certainly come in handy this week. He also has recorded 15 eagles this season, best on Tour, and ranks 18th in Putting Average, 20th in Birdie Average and 25th in Scoring Average (Actual). As mentioned above, we want to target players who can not only get it on the green in regulation, but convert those birdie and eagle opportunities and McNealy fits the bill. You can get +333 odds on him to finish in the Top 10 at BetMGM, a nice value against BetQL’s +213 odds.
Lanto Griffin Top 20 Finish (+300, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: +143 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Griffin ranks 9th on Tour with 294 Total Birdies this season and is a streaky player, as indicated by the fact that he hit 25 consecutive Greens in Regulation (8th-best on Tour) and went 196 consecutive holes without a three-putt (23rd on Tour) at various points this season. BetQL is giving him +143 odds to finish in the Top 20 this week and you can get +300 odds on him to do that at FanDuel right now.
Ryan Moore Top 40 Finish (+185, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: -146 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Moore has had some success at this event, having won it back in 2016 and with a T2 finish last year. He’s been in the mix in numerous other years too, so it’s clear that he’s very comfortable here. BetQL is giving him -146 odds to finish in the Top 40 and you can grab that at +185 on FanDuel, a bargain for a player with his track record here.