Despite the fact that Jannik Sinner got off to a 2-0 set, Novak Djokovic roared back to win a five-setter in convincing fashion (5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2) in his Quarterfinal match to get here. Meanwhile, crowd favorite (and Brit) Cameron Norrie also won a five-setter, beating David Goffin 3-6, 7-5, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 to advance.
Djokovic is the best Wimbledon performer ever and his odds reflect that. Betting his moneyline doesn’t have any value especially since, according to the model, he should be at -249, which is a massive difference from the current line. Sprinkling some on Norrie is still risky, however, since the model is giving Djokovic 71.38% odds to win.
There is significant five-star value backing Norrie +7.5 games, though. BetQL is projecting him at +3.5. Over 31.5 total games played is also a four-star bet since the model projects 35 total games to be played.