2022 U.S. Open Tennis: Semifinal Best Bets

Find out who you should target in Jabeur-Garcia, Swiatek-Sabalenka, Alcaraz-Tiafoe and Ruud-Khachanov

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Caroline Garcia vs. Ons Jabeur

Caroline Garcia has been in incredible form lately, but our model is viewing the higher-ranked Jabeur (+132) as the clear best bet in this matchup. BetQL is giving Jabeur an 81.11% chance to win, a -429 implied moneyline and is giving her an “A” matchup grade compared to Garcia’s “B” grade. 

To get to this point, Jabeur defeated Madison Brengle (7-5, 6-2), Elizabeth Mandlik (7-5, 6-2), Shelby Rogers (4-6, 6-4, 6-3), Veronika Kudermetova (7-6, 6-4) and Ajla Tomljanovic (6-4, 7-6) while Garcia has cruised to wins over Kamilla Rakhimova (6-2, 6-4), Anna Kalinskaya (6-3, 6-1), Bianca Andreescu (6-3, 6-2), Alison Riske-Amritraj (6-4, 6-1) and Coco Gauff (6-3, 6-4). Despite Garcia’s amazing tournament so far, Jabeur won in two previous meetings against Garcia (in the 2020 Australian Open and 2019 U.S. Open) and the model is projecting that outcome once again here.

While it’s important to realize how incredible Garcia has been lately, Jabeur’s unique game allows her to create different kinds of angles and she has a ton of variation on what kinds of shots she hits. Getting her as an underdog is some incredible value.

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Caroline Garcia vs. Ons Jabeur

Caroline Garcia has been in incredible form lately, but our model is viewing the higher-ranked Jabeur (+132) as the clear best bet in this matchup. BetQL is giving Jabeur an 81.11% chance to win, a -429 implied moneyline and is giving her an “A” matchup grade compared to Garcia’s “B” grade. 

To get to this point, Jabeur defeated Madison Brengle (7-5, 6-2), Elizabeth Mandlik (7-5, 6-2), Shelby Rogers (4-6, 6-4, 6-3), Veronika Kudermetova (7-6, 6-4) and Ajla Tomljanovic (6-4, 7-6) while Garcia has cruised to wins over Kamilla Rakhimova (6-2, 6-4), Anna Kalinskaya (6-3, 6-1), Bianca Andreescu (6-3, 6-2), Alison Riske-Amritraj (6-4, 6-1) and Coco Gauff (6-3, 6-4). Despite Garcia’s amazing tournament so far, Jabeur won in two previous meetings against Garcia (in the 2020 Australian Open and 2019 U.S. Open) and the model is projecting that outcome once again here.

While it’s important to realize how incredible Garcia has been lately, Jabeur’s unique game allows her to create different kinds of angles and she has a ton of variation on what kinds of shots she hits. Getting her as an underdog is some incredible value.

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Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Iga Swiatek has been the story of the women’s tennis world this season with the lone exception being Serena Williams’ presumed retirement. The World’s top player is listed as a favorite in this matchup, but BetQL is giving her astronomical 94.44% odds to beat Aryna Sabalanka on Thursday night, -1697 implied odds. Swiatek has an “A+” matchup grade while Sabalenka has a “B+” mark. Earlier this year, Swiatek famously enjoyed a 37-match win streak and owns a head-to-head record of 3-1 against Sabalenka this season, including a 3-0 mark in 2022. Not only that, but she dominated, winning 6-0 in total sets in those matches and she also only lost more than two games in a set against Sabalenka once in those six sets. 

To get here, Swiatek beat Jasmine Paolini (6-3, 6-0), Sloane Stephens (6-3, 6-2), Lauren Davis (6-3, 6-4), Jule Niemeier (2-6, 6-4, 6-0) and Jessica Pegula (6-3, 7-6). Sabalenka took down Catherine Harrison (6-1, 6-3), Kaia Kanepi (2-6, 7-6, 6-4), Clara Burel (6-0, 6-2), Danielle Collins (3-6, 6-3, 6-2) and Karolina Pliskova (6-1, 7-6). 

As you might imagine, Swiatek’s all-around game led her to have success on all surfaces this year. That should give her a massive edge against Sabalenka, who notably had to re-work her entire serve. Sabalenka has racked up a whopping 339 double faults this season, which is the highest mark in the WTA by 140 double faults over the next-highest mark. Look for this to be one of the biggest storylines in this semifinal. If Sabalenka’s serve connects, it’s also important to note that Swiatek boasts an elite 52.1% return game win percentage, 2nd-best out of any WTA player.

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Karen Khachanov vs. Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud is the clear favorite in this matchup and our model is giving him an 80.69% chance to win this match, an implied -417 moneyline which is much different than the -191 moneyline he has at the time of this writing. However, nobody likes betting a -191 moneyline. BetQL is listing under 41 total games as a 5-star value and projects 35 total games to be played. 

To advance to the semis, Khachanov hasn’t had much of an easy path and has lost at least a set in every match. He defeated Denis Kudla (3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2), Thiago Monteiro (6-3, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4), Jack Draper (6-3, 4-6, 6-5, Retired), Pablo Carreno Busta (4-6, 6-3, 6-1, 4-6, 6-3) and Nick Kyrgios (7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 6-7, 6-4). Ruud advanced to this spot after beating Kyle Edmund (6-3, 7-5, 6-2), Tim Van Rijthoven (6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4), Tommy Paul (7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 5-7, 6-0), Corentin Moutet (6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-2) and Matteo Berrettini (6-1, 6-4, 7-6). 

Ruud has won 85% of his service games this season (12th on ATP Tour) while Khachanov has only won 20.2% of his return games this year (56th on ATP Tour), so that’s the edge I’m looking at in this head-to-head battle. Khachanov has converted just 37.3% of his break points (62nd) as well, so Ruud should have a great opportunity to move on to the finals (on paper). Ruud also boasts the 3rd-best “Under Pressure” rating at ATPTour.com, which factors in break points won, break points saved, percentage of tie breaks won and percentage of deciding sets won. (Khachanov ranks 28th in that advanced metric.)

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Frances Tiafoe

All eyes will be on this matchup between young Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz and American hero Frances Tiafoe. The model is giving Alcaraz (-184) a huge edge, with an 88.12% projected win percentage and -741 implied moneyline. However, once again, if you want to grab more value, BetQL would suggest betting Alcaraz -3 games (-7.5 projected) and under 40 total games (35 games projected). 

Alcaraz eliminated Sebastian Baez (7-5, 7-5, 2-0, Retired), Federico Coria (6-2, 6-1, 7-5), Jenson Brooksby (6-3, 6-3, 6-3), Marin iLi (6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3) and Jannik Sinner (6-3, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5, 6-3). Tiafoe has been victorious against Marcos Giron (7-6, 6-4, 6-3), Jason Kubler (7-6, 7-5, 7-6), Diego Schwartzman (7-6, 6-4, 6-4), Rafael Nadal (6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3) and Andrey Rublev (7-6, 7-6, 6-4). 

While Tiafoe’s run has been incredible, Alcaraz is the better overall player by every verifiable statistic, including this one: on hard surfaces, he’s won 57.1% of his second serve points, which leads the ATP. The youngster showed poise well beyond his years in his late-night win over Sinner in the quarterfinals and is projected to end Tiafoe’s inspiring run.

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