Caroline Garcia has been in incredible form lately, but our model is viewing the higher-ranked Jabeur (+132) as the clear best bet in this matchup. BetQL is giving Jabeur an 81.11% chance to win, a -429 implied moneyline and is giving her an “A” matchup grade compared to Garcia’s “B” grade.
To get to this point, Jabeur defeated Madison Brengle (7-5, 6-2), Elizabeth Mandlik (7-5, 6-2), Shelby Rogers (4-6, 6-4, 6-3), Veronika Kudermetova (7-6, 6-4) and Ajla Tomljanovic (6-4, 7-6) while Garcia has cruised to wins over Kamilla Rakhimova (6-2, 6-4), Anna Kalinskaya (6-3, 6-1), Bianca Andreescu (6-3, 6-2), Alison Riske-Amritraj (6-4, 6-1) and Coco Gauff (6-3, 6-4). Despite Garcia’s amazing tournament so far, Jabeur won in two previous meetings against Garcia (in the 2020 Australian Open and 2019 U.S. Open) and the model is projecting that outcome once again here.
While it’s important to realize how incredible Garcia has been lately, Jabeur’s unique game allows her to create different kinds of angles and she has a ton of variation on what kinds of shots she hits. Getting her as an underdog is some incredible value.
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