English Premier League
Tim Van Rijthoven (+100) vs. Reilly Opelka, Wednesday
As I wrote in my Wimbledon preview, I expect Van Rijthoven to make some noise. Five matches on grass. Five wins. That’s van Rijthoven’s record this year after he took down Danill Medvedev, Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime en route to his title at the 2022 Libema Open in the Netherlands a couple weeks ago.
He’s a hot name circulating the tennis world right now, and he’s a clear Quarter 1 sleeper (+2500) with Djokovic (-360), Carlos Alcaraz (+400), Murray (+1100) and Jannik Sinner (+2500) all given shorter odds to come out of that part of the draw via DraftKings. You can grab +3800 odds on him to win Quarter 1 on FanDuel and +22000 odds on him to win the tournament there as well if you want to go way off the board.
It all starts with this opening-round match against Opelka and I love the fact that you can grab him at plus-money.
Hugo Grenier (+190) vs. Cristian Garin, Thursday
This match is actually scheduled for early Thursday morning and BetQL’s ATP Model is projecting Grenier to win the match. In fact, the model is giving him a 59.3% chance to win, a -145 implied moneyline. Grenier won a gritty five-set match in the first round while Garin won his match in three sets, but it’s clear that the data points to the 6-5, hard-hitting Grenier, who won 81% of his first serve points with 15 aces and a ton of winners in his first-round match. I expect Grenier to be much more aggressive and Garin to be more defensive in this particular matchup, which points me firmly to Grenier.