ATP Parma Preview and Picks

History

First edition of the event and probably the only one going forward as it has only one-year license.  President Tennis Club of Montechiarugolo will host this event in incredibly beautiful sight of Parma and in the heart of Emilia.

Favorites and Top Seeds

Normal for event just before a Grand Slam to lack any significant star power. This one is no exception.

No top 20 player and the top seeds are Lorenzo Sonego, Jan-Lennard Struff , Benoit Paire and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Lorenzo Sonego has had a fabulous clay court season which started with title in Cagliari, then unfortunately to run to Alex Zverev in Monte Carlo in R2 but quickly rebounded with a run to the semis in Rome defeating Thiem and Rublev as a +300 underdog both times. His ranking improved steadily in last couple of weeks because of these efforts and he will look for more of the same here where the field is weak.

Struff had a good run in Munich by the end of last month and lost early to Popyrin and Rublev in the Masters events in Madrid and Rome which followed so he is not coming in any sort of form. He has had an up and down season with only 13-12 record from the beginning of the year and 7-5 on clay. He is a player that is hard to be trusted as he has both negative ROI against higher and lower ranked players, from his 44th place in it, in the last 50 matches.

Ramos-Vinolas has played the most matches on clay this year than anyone I believe. He started with couple of runs in South America where he lost a final in Cordoba where he defeated Diego Schwartzman as a +500 underdog and a semifinal in Buenos Aires a week after. He didn’t travel to play the Miami Masters on hard court in the US and continued to add up to his clay stats with semi in Marbella and with couple of early losses in Monte Carlo and Barcelona he clinched his 1st title of the year and a total of 10 in his career in Estoril.  With 17-6 record on the dirt and +47.1% ROI and a weaker field he is one of the favorites for the title here alongside Sonego.

Despite he is the 2nd seed of the event Benoit Paire has been out of form from awhile and has even joked in recent weeks that because of the ranking freeze for some events and points he doesn’t have to do much in order to get in draws and receive money for constantly losing R1 in tournaments. He was dropped from the French Olympics team despite his ranking of 35, just because of these actions of him not caring to give full effort while playing and often tanking in the end of matches for the delight of gamblers. 2-13 record for the year with -46.9 % ROI, which includes 2-8 on clay he is one to avoid in all costs on pre match. Only suggestion is to bet against him in-play, as when things don’t go well he just tends to lose everything until the end.

Underdogs and Dark Horses

Jaume Munar could be a potential dark horse or anyone that basically is around Paire in the bottom part of the draw. The Spaniard has had rough couple of weeks after losing the final in Marbella in beginning of April with a low point against Hugo Dellien in Rome losing as a -500 favorite, but expecting this to be taken as a wake up call by him and make something way better here.

Picks

Weak field with French Open only a week away, so the efforts of many should be questionable but on paper anything other than Sonego vs Ramos-Vinolas final should be considered as a surprise. I just don’t see enough of a challenge to them at this point given the opposition around them, and only lack of effort for extra rest before Paris could be the deciding factor.