ATP Munich Preview and Best Bets
Favorites, top seeds, and dark horses to watch
History
The BMW Open has been staged in Iphitos Tennis Club since 1974 in Bavaria’s capital city of Munich. Philipp Kohlschreiber has won the event most times – three,while Alexander Zverev did back to back in 2017 and 2018.
Zverev was going for three-peat but was denied by the eventual champion Cristian Garin in the QF. The Chilean decided to defend the 250 points in Estoril instead of here.
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Favorites and Top Seeds
Alexander Zverev is the top seed of the event ,as he is looking for that 3rd title on home soil. He Is accompanied by Casper Ruud, Aslan Karatsev and Filip Krajinovic and all 4 gets a round 1 bye and will start directly from round 2.
After winning Acapulco in the middle of March on hard court, Alexander Zverev’s form has been quite questionable. He lost to Ruusuvouri in Miami as a -625 favorite and to David Goffin in Monte Carlo as a close to -200 favorite as well. The only win in between was against Sonego in Monaco. He has 57-25 w/l record within Germany on all surfaces with +32.7% ROI on the ML which Is out of this world and 34-15 with whooping +47.7% at home on clay court. He is the overwhelming favorite adding the competition around him. Zverev is the only top 20 player in the event and he has a 42-8 record in his last 50 against lower ranked players.
Casper Rudd comes with some injury concerns. He withdrew from his QF match against Zverev in Acapulco in March, then played Marbella (lost in QF) and made it all the way to the semis in Monte Carlo while beating no.9 Diego Schwartzman in R2 and losing to in-form Anrey Rublev. He was then scheduled to play Barcelona but withdrew due to Right Arm injury. 72% of his points total has come from clay courts and his ranking has steadily improved in the last 2 years. He has 360 points to defend in Rome in 3 weeks so some sort of leverage would be ideal for him.
Aslan Karatsev saved 23 break points on route to defeat Novak Djokovic in the semifinals in Belgrade and will play against Berretini for the title. There’s not enough words to describe the Russian’s year which started with Aussie Open Semi while being no.114 in the world, now he is 28th with very little to defend until end of the year. And the way he has been playing it’s only a matter of time for a new career ranking and debut in top 20. Aslan is 20-4 on the year with anomaly ROI of +87.3%... If he decides to play the tournament and not withdrawing to save energy for the back to back Masters events in Madrid and Rome is by far the most intriguing person on the draw and someone who can definitely deal with Zverev if they end up the final
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Underdogs and Dark Horses
The 37 year Philipp Kohlschreiber ,who is far from his prime years, enjoys playing here, demonstrated with the 3 titles (2007,2016,2017) and this will be his 16th appearance . He recently returned to the tour in Belgrade, losing in R2 against Dzumhur after missing the first half of the season.
Sebastian Korda who started the year 119th has now been able to cut his ranking to 66th due mainly to his run to Miami’s QF in late March. His lost his first clay court match of the year against Bedene in Belgrade last week, but he was one of the stories of last year’s French Open.
Coming in in Paris while ranked 212 he went from qualifying all the way to Round 4 where he was blown out by eventual champion and clay court hurricane Rafael Nadal. He had 3 underdog wins, most notable odds wise against Aslan Karatsev as +230 underdog. This streak in France is one of the reasons he has only 23-14 all time record on the dirt but with +11.1% ROI. The 20 year old offers lot of upside and would be the one to watch in the coming years.
Notable Round 1 Matchup
Dominik Koepfer vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
This matchup opened with Koepfer being around -170 / -180 favorite but since cut down to -147. Interesting German battle in R1 as both come here with any sort of form. Koepfer has 9-9 all time record while being in such price range (-200 to -120) with -15.4% ROI while Kohlschreiber is +10.1% ROI as a moderate underdog ( +100 to +190). Koepfer has an edge on matches played in 2021 with 15 to 2, but overall they look pretty close and seems to be a coin flip so the underdog price seems tempting.
