NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For The YellaWood 500 at Talladega

Polish your lucky quarter and start flipping. That’s often the best advice for carburetor-restricted superspeedway lotteries like those held at Talladega Superspeedway, Daytona International Speedway and now Atlanta Motor Speedway. 

The only good thing about the plate tracks is that betting lines tend to be a little longer and reward the correct guess. In salary cap fantasy games, spread the wealth around and don’t overspend on marquee drivers because they are just as likely to get caught up in a ‘Big One’ crash. And in allocation management games, don’t squander a pick on a driver who will be more predictable in the final five races. 

Some drivers are better than others at determining when chaos is about to break out but that isn’t always helpful if the crash is big enough. Through the years since NASCAR employed carburetor plates and tapered spacers to uniformly slow cars to a common speed, crashes that begin at the head of the pack have commonly swallowed up the back of the drafting line. 

Betting strategy will be more important this week than pouring over stats. Avoid the temptation to take the absolute longest odds and find a comfortable level of wagering this week.

BetMGM Sportsbook Insights: NASCAR YellaWood 500

 Highest Ticket%

• Chris Buescher 8.5%
• Ross Chastain 7.6%
• Brad Keselowski 6.7%

 Highest Handle%

• Erik Jones 15.8%
• Ross Chastain 11.5%
• Chris Buescher 9.3%

 Biggest Liabilities

• Erik Jones
• Ross Chastain
• Chris Buescher

NASCAR Expert Picks For The YellaWood 500 at Talladega

1. Brad Keselowski ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +900

Consensus Odds*: +1017 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1200

No one has swept the top 10 in the first five pack racing events of 2023, but three drivers have finished that well in four events and Keselowski has the best recent record. In his last four races on this track type, he’s finished sixth or better with a pair of second-place finishes in Atlanta’s first race and at Daytona in the most recent drafting race. Some of the earliest success for RFK Racing came on plate tracks and this team has some momentum from recent weeks.

2. Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1800

Consensus Odds*: +1667 | Best Odds: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers +1800

Busch hopes he got his bad luck out of the way at Texas Motor Speedway. Intangibles like fortune never fit into a handicapping formula but they are important nonetheless. The driver of the No. 8 is another one of the fortunate few with four top-10s in five plate races this year and like Keselowski, they have come in the last four events. Busch is the defending winner on this track and has a fifth at Atlanta, but his overall average finish is worse than Kez, so we’re pushing him down a notch. 

3. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1100

Consensus Odds*: +1150 | Best Odds: MGM, Caesars, BetRivers +1200

Blaney entered the Coke Zero 400 with the longest top-10 streak on this track type. Starting with a second in this race last year, he finished ninth or better in five consecutive races before running out of luck at Daytona. A crash on Lap 94 of the scheduled 160-lap distance put an end to that but there is no reason to think he won’t rebound. He may be a little cautious after finishing 28th at Texas since he cannot afford bad runs with the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval on the horizon. Blaney’s last two Talladega races ended in top-fives.

4. Erik Jones ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2500

Consensus Odds*: +2550 | Best Odds: MGM +3000

Jones has been one of our favorite dark horses in a number of races and that confidence was underscored by his run at Texas before he got swept into an accident. With typically attractive odds, he could easily make each bettor’s personal list on a variety of track types during the final five weeks even when he’s not profiled here, but his Talladega record stands out. He has finished sixth in his last three races on this track, had a current four-race top-10 streak there and a pair of top-fives in 2020.

5. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1400

Consensus Odds*: +1433 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1600

While we have generally lost confidence in Elliott, it bears noting that he is the defending winner of this race and another victory at Atlanta after that track was repaved and reconfigured makes him difficult to avoid outright. He’s one of four drivers who swept Talladega last year with a seventh in the spring event. Elliott has nothing to lose in terms of the driver’s championship and will take the necessary risks to get to the front. He is not particularly patient in the draft, however, and a mistimed pass attempt could drop him to the back of the field.

6. Ross Chastain ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2200

Consensus Odds*: +2133 | Best Odds: MGM +#2500

Chastain is the only driver to sweep the top five at Talladega last year with a win in the spring and fourth-plate finish in the fall. He has not had the same success in 2023 as last year and a big part of the reason is the criticism that has been directed his way over his aggressive driving. Plate tracks behave by their own rules, however. 

7. Chase Briscoe ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3500

Consensus Odds*: +3083 | Best Odds: DraftKings, MGM +3500

As we get below the top five ranked drivers, it’s appropriate to bring up some longshots. Stewart-Haas Racing has not performed particularly well this year; they are in a rebuild that won’t be complete until Kevin Harvick transitions out of the No. 4 and the organization can fully assess the combined strength of the four cars, but Briscoe’s fourth-place finish this spring makes him interesting. An outright win is questionable, but with +400 odds for a top-five and +125 for a top-10 at DraftKings, there is a bet to be made. 

8. Todd Gilliland ⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +6500

Consensus Odds*: +6183 | Best Odds: BetRivers +6600

Young Guns are not generally good bets on plate tracks, but Gilliland has held a steady wheel at Talladega with two top-10s in three starts there. He finished seventh last year in this race and was 10th this spring. As with Briscoe, the safer bet is for a top-10 with 2/1 odds. 

9. Daniel Suarez ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3500

Consensus Odds*: +3250 | Best Odds: DraftKings, MGM, BetRivers +3500

Look for Suarez to hook up with Chastain for as much of the race as circumstances allow. While it’s true that the majority of the field is part of a multi-car organization, some partnerships seem to work better than others and the goals of these two align perfectly. Suarez could be encouraged to push Chastain to the win, but his top-three odds of 10/1 for a top-three, you can make about as much as another driver on a non-plate track. 

10. Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1300

Consensus Odds*: +1367 | Best Odds: MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, BetRivers +1400

It has been 10 races since Wallace scored a top-10 but his three-race streak of first- and second-place finishes at Talladega and Daytona at the end of 2021 and start of 2022 raises him above much of the field. Wallace arguably had the strongest car at the end of the Texas race after Kyle Larson crashed and he’s motivated to make up for what he self-described as choking.

* Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, PointsBet, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers.