NHL Sleepers: Vezina Trophy Value Play

NHL Sleepers: Vezina Trophy Value Play

As the Stanley Cup Playoffs approach, there is plenty of value to be had in the NHL futures market. The key is finding where it lies and getting the best number possible on a team or player that can improve on that number by the end of the season.

Today, we have a netminder who is on fire right now, and is also getting +1300 odds to win the Vezina Trophy for the NHL's best goaltender.

Golden Knights' Adin Hill To Win Vezina Trophy (+1300, DraftKings)

First off, let's start by saying that Hill is 13/1 this late in the season for a reason, and that is mostly because he has missed a significant amount of time this season due to injury. The key here will be if he can manage to play a majority of the stretch run. If so, I think he will have a legitimate shot at this award with how unbelievable he has been when he actually has been on the ice.

Still, don't be putting more than some pizza or beer money on this thing. A lot has to go right for him to win this for us, and some of that will be things that are out of Hill's control.

First off, Connor Hellebuyck is the current favorite to win the award, and he is very deserving with a 2.21 GA/G average and .925 SV% in 42 games played. Thatcher Demko is next at +360 odds, and he has also been deserving with a 2.47 GA/G and .917 SV%. We would need both of these guys to falter a bit down the stretch in order for Hill to surpass them, but when you look at his numbers, he really should be right there with Hellebuyck as a co-favorite to win the Vezina.

Hill owns a 2.23 GA/G and .927 SV%, compared to Hellebuyck's 2.21 GA/G and .925 SV%. Those are eerily similar numbers, but the one difference is that the latter has played far more games and kept up that pace, which gives him the edge here. We would need him to have some poor performances at the end of the season, and for Hill to continue to play at this level for a bunch of starts. Is that possible? Certainly, but it is improbable right now.

That is why we are getting 13/1 odds on this, but I think the chance that it happens is worth a sprinkle. Hill has been outstanding, and he just needs to keep playing this way and have some other dudes have a couple of bad games, and he will be right back to the top of this list.