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Top QB Prop Values From Our Simulation Model
As we’re approaching the 2022 NFL season, BetQL’s Simulation Model has been hard at work. We already released our Misvalued 2022 NFL Win Totals after simulating every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times. Now, we’re heading to the player prop markets, where we will project quarterback outputs in terms of both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Scroll down to see if you should bet over or under consensus totals and take advantage using our exclusive sportsbook offers ASAP!...
Misvalued 2022 NFL Win Totals
BetQL's NFL Model simulated every game of the upcoming 2022 season 10,000 times and identified many win total value bets you should make as soon as possible. Scroll down to find out which teams are undervalued or undervalued compared to their current consensus odds. You might be shocked to see some of the teams below......
Simulation Model Projects Surprising 2022 Rushing Yards Leader
Last season, Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Najee Harris took the NFL by storm as one of the true bell cow running backs in the league. Carrying the ball 307 times (2nd-most), he accumulated 1,200 rushing yards (4th) with seven scores on the ground (T-14th) in 17 games. He also caught 74 passes on 94 targets for an additional 467 receiving yards with three more scores. Overall, his 381 touches led the entire NFL. Heading into the 2022 campaign, he will be relied on to lead Pittsburgh’s offense once again, this time with a new quarterback under center. However, it's much more likely than not that...
Burdge: My Top 3 Favorite Patriots Player Prop Futures For 2022
The NFL season is closing in with Week 1 just around the corner as the calendar turns to August. Ahead of this huge season for the Patriots as they begin training camp, here are three of my favorite player prop futures from DraftKings to consider. Mac Jones Over 3950.5 Regular Season Passing Yards (-110) Jones had 3,801 regular season passing yards last season, which was 13th in the league. But that was just his rookie year, after all. With all the changes he's made to his diet and workout routine this offseason, I see all his numbers going up this year. And that includes his regular seaso...
NFL Best Bets: BetQL Staff Picks For Week 1
Week 1 NFL Best Bets Dan Karpuc: Vikings (+2.5) vs. Packers (-110, BetMGM) I recently wrote about why I think Justin Jefferson is going to break some long-standing WR records and deliver an all-time great season in 2022. First-year head coach Kevin O’Connell is going to bring his high-powered offense to Minnesota and completely modernize the run-heavy offense that Mike Zimmer demanded. That means we are most likely going to see crazy numbers from Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen in the passing game, and also see Dalvin Cook put up awesome receiving numbers as well in a pass-fi...
Rams vs. Bills: NFL Week 1 First Look & Lean
Rams vs. Bills Week 1 Odds The reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams will host the Buffalo Bills to open the 2022 NFL season on NBC’s Thursday Night Football broadcast. Take a look at the live odds above for the September 8th battle. BetQL’s NFL Model hit 55.5% of all four and five-star bets last season, has gone 27-18 (60%) on all O/U Rams bets for a $659 profit on $100 wagers and has gone 36-14 (72%) on 1st half moneyline bets in Bills QB Josh Allen’s starts for a $607 profit on $100 wagers. So, when our Week 1 projections go live in the coming weeks, be sure to check them out! Ra...
Ravens vs. Jets: NFL Week 1 First Look & Lean
Ravens vs. Jets Week 1 Odds The Baltimore Ravens, after being decimated by injuries in 2021, take their renewed expectations into the 2022 season, while the Jets have their own set of higher expectations. Take a look at the live odds above for the September 11th season opener. Ravens vs. Jets Week 1 Lean: Baltimore ATS This is the start of a last-place schedule for the Ravens that includes the NFC South and AFC East, and along with the Jets, they'll see the Giants, Jags, Panthers, and Falcons, which should help pad them towards 10 wins when it's all said and done. As for Week 1, the Ravens...
Browns vs. Panthers: NFL Week 1 First Look & Lean
Browns vs. Panthers Week 1 Odds The Carolina Panthers host Baker Mayfield's former team in the Cleveland Browns, as Matt Rhule enters a pivotal year in his coaching tenure in Carolina. The Browns of course have high expectations, but only with Deshaun Watson on the field, which as of right now is still a big question mark. Take a look at the live odds above for the September 11th season opener. Browns vs. Panthers Week 1 Lean: Wait Deshaun Watson's status with the Browns puts everything on hold here. If he were to play (which seems highly unlikely with his off-the-field situation), you'd fo...
Dolphins vs. Patriots: NFL Week 1 First Look & Lean
Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds The Miami Dolphins opened as a home favorite for their Week 1 AFC East clash against the New England Patriots. Last season, the Dolphins finished 9-8 SU, 9-7-1 ATS and 7-10 O/U while the Patriots finished 10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS and 10-8 O/U. BetQL has gone 26-17-6 (60.5%) on 1st half ATS Dolphins bets and 10-5-2 (66.7%) on 1st half Patriots ATS bets in Mac Jones’ career. Stay tuned for our model’s best bets in the coming weeks, but scroll down to see where I’m leaning right now. Dolphins vs. Patriots Week 1 Lean: Over The Total I’m high on both of these offenses. First...
Commanders vs. Jaguars: NFL Week 1 First Look & Lean
Commanders vs. Jaguars Odds The Washington Commanders opened as a home favorite for their Week 1 battle against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last season, the Commanders went 7-10 AU, 7-9-1 ATS and 7-10 O/U while the Jaguars went 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS and 5-12 O/U. Stay tuned for our model’s best bets in the coming weeks, but scroll down to see where I’m leaning at the moment. Commanders vs. Jaguars Week 1 Lean: Jaguars ATS Let’s start with the Jags. After a three-win rookie season, quarterback Trevor Lawrence will have more weapons around him in 2022: healthy running back Travis Etienne Jr., wide ...
Colts at Texans Prediction For NFL Week 1
Colts at Texans Prediction For Week 1 The Colts added Matt Ryan after sending quarterback Carson Wentz to Washington, with clear expectations to get back to the playoffs. The Texans, well, they're looking at this season a little differently, with "rebuild" being the accurate word here. Let's be honest here, these are two teams with very different aspirations heading into 2022. Over at FanDuel, Houston comes in at +350 to have the fewest wins when the season ends, followed by the Falcons (+400), Seahawks (+700), Jets (+800) and Jaguars (+900). Davis Mills had a solid finish to the season l...
49ers at Bears Prediction For NFL Week 1
49ers at Bears Prediction For Week 1 The San Francisco 49ers made it clear they're moving on to Trey Lance even with the drawn-out process that's seen Jimmy Garappolo's future sit in limbo, while the Chicago Bears hope year two for Justin Fields will show massive growth under new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and head coach Matt Eberflus. Let's be honest, we know very little about what Trey Lance will look like as a full-time starter in San Francisco. He has the physical tools to succeed in Kyle Shanahan's offense, but there may be some growing pains early in the season. Justin Fields i...
Eagles at Lions Prediction For NFL Week 1
Eagles at Lions Prediction For Week 1 The Philadelphia Eagles spent this offseason upgrading their roster, and now the playoff expectations are only louder as they enter Week 1 against the Detroit Lions. Philly obviously comes into this season with much higher expectations than the Lions, just barely behind the Cowboys to win the NFC East (+176 consensus), with Detroit and their 6.5 win total sitting as a longshot to even make the postseason (+381). Keep in mind though, the market has seen a huge swing recently when it comes to Dan Campbell's Lions, with over 6.5 priced at +130 to open, b...
Steelers at Bengals Prediction For NFL Week 1
Steelers at Bengals Prediction For Week 1 The Cincinnati Bengals were the surprise team of 2021, now they prepare to start their AFC title defense against the Steelers, who enter the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. Going from just a four-win team in 2020 to 10 wins and a division title in 2021 would've already been considered a success, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals had to go ahead and win the AFC and play in the Super Bowl, so they just blew expectations out of the water. This year they won't be able to sneak up on anyone, though, and even with a vastly improved offensive line, that guaran...
Saints at Falcons Prediction For Week 1
Saints at Falcons Prediction For Week 1 Neither team may have their quarterback of the future, but the New Orleans Saints have made it clear they're at least looking to win with Jameis Winston under center, while the Falcons seem more interested in who they can draft in 2023. Sure, the Saints were over .500 last year, but that was during the Sean Payton era. Now it's Dennis Allen's team, with an offense led by hopefully a fully healthy Winston. Neither has a resume anywhere close to what Payton and Drew Brees brought to the table, but that doesn't mean this is a lost season for the Saints...
Buccaneers at Cowboys Prediction For NFL Week 1
Buccaneers at Cowboys Prediction For Week 1 If this matchup is anything like last year's thrilling season-opener between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys, we're in for one of the best games of the year in Week 1. In that awesome game, Buccaneers QB Tom Brady led a game-winning drive to secure a 31-29 victory for his team, in true Brady fashion. The Bucs were -2.5 favorites in that game with a large total of 51 at the close of markets. This game features almost the same exact numbers, with Tampa Bay as -2/-2.5 favorites and a total once again of 51. The Buccaneers went through an o...
Broncos at Seahawks Prediction For NFL Week 1
Broncos at Seahawks Prediction For Week 1 Week 1 of the NFL season is almost upon us, and the first Monday Night Football matchup will pit Russell Wilson against his former team as the Denver Broncos visit the Seattle Seahawks. The line for this game is sitting at several different numbers at multiple sportsbooks, with one book offering a -4.5 line for the Broncos and one offering -5.5. Either way, with an opening line of -4 for the game, Denver has taken most of the money since. This should definitely have been expected, but that doesn't mean it is right. Denver made a huge splash this offs...
Giants at Titans Prediction For NFL Week 1
Giants at Titans Prediction For NFL Week 1 Week 1 is almost upon us, which is great news for BetQL subscribers! The model was red-hot last year, especially towards the middle and end of the 2021 season and in the playoffs, it was lights-out. Now is a great time to get in on the fun and join us for another winning season of NFL football. Today, we're taking a look at the Week 1 matchup between the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans. The Titans are solid home favorites, and the total is sitting in the mid-40s. Titans Outlook If you read my work from last season, I really faded the Titans in ...
Packers at Vikings Prediction For NFL Week 1
Packers at Vikings Prediction For NFL Week 1 Week 1 is almost upon us, which is great news for BetQL subscribers! The model was red-hot last year, especially towards the middle and end of the 2021 season and in the playoffs, it was lights-out. Now is a great time to get in on the fun and join us for another winning season of NFL football. Today, we're taking a look at the Week 1 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. The Packers are small favorites on the road against Minnesota, with the total around 50 at most sportsbooks. Packers Outlook The Green Bay Packers lost the...
Raiders at Chargers Prediction For NFL Week 1
Raiders at Chargers Prediction For Week 1 The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers will square off in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, and we here at BetQL couldn't be more excited that the football season is finally upon us here in the next month or so. There is so much opportunity to make serious profits with NFL betting, and we're here to help you along the way make the best bets possible. Let's take a look at this matchup and figure out what might be the best bet for this Week 1 matchup. Los Angeles is currently a -3.5/-4 favorite at most sportsbooks over the Raiders, with a pretty h...
2022 Hall Of Fame Game: Raiders vs. Jaguars Best Bets
It feels like it’s been forever, but the NFL will finally return on Thursday night when the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the annual Hall of Fame Game. Coverage will be presented on NBC and Peacock with Football Night in America at 7:00pm EST followed by kickoff at 8:00pm EST. Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth and Melissa Stark will be on the call for the first time together as NBC’s new top team while Jason Garrett will join Maria Taylor, Tony Dungy, Rodney Harrison, Chris Simms, Jac Collinsworth and Mike Florio in the studio aspect of the show, so there will even be som...
Burdge: What I'm Watching For In Patriots' Preseason
NFL training camp is finally underway and it is off to an optimistic start for the Patriots. Bill Belichick spent his summer "relaxing" and Matthew Slater said "you almost feel like a kid going back to school after summer vacation" as he feels the "excitement of a new opportunity, new challenges, and the journey that lies ahead." As the promise of a brand new season filled the air the first few days of training camp, there is one big thing I'm looking for above everything else during this preseason for New England: the development of Mac Jones. The quarterback is in his second year and the...
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